In 2020, GNV published an article titled “Libya: The Long Road to Peace” explaining the increasingly complex situation in Libya. At the time of that article, Libya had two “governments” as the main political forces: the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, the capital in the west, and the House of Representatives (HOR) in the eastern city of Tobruk. As of February 2020, a ceasefire agreement had been concluded between the two, but armed clashes broke out immediately afterwards, and the conflict did not come to an end.

Five years have passed since then, a new ceasefire agreement has been reached, and efforts are being made toward the unification of the government. However, the situation of multiple governments coexisting has not changed. After the ceasefire agreement, a new Government of National Unity (GNU) was launched in 2021, but the HOR did not join, and the confrontation between the two governments continues. While there are two governments, there is only one central bank, and recently the GNU and the HOR clashed fiercely over the position of governor of the central bank that manages oil revenues.

The ceasefire agreement itself remains in place and armed conflict has subsided, but Libyan citizens continue to be in an unstable situation. Building on the previous article, let us look at the latest developments in Libya.

Martyrs’ Square in Tripoli, the capital (Photo: Hussein Eddeb / Shutterstock.com)

History of Libya

Before turning to the latest situation in Libya, let’s briefly review Libya’s basic information and history, as well as past developments.

Libya is a country in North Africa with a population of about 6.8 million. The majority of the population identifies as Arab and is Muslim. Its main industry is the oil sector, and in addition to oil, it actively exports other energy resources such as natural gas. Geographically and historically, it has served as a hub for trade between Africa and Europe.

Libya was defined as a single country under the Ottoman Empire in the 16th century, consisting of three regions (Tripolitania, Cyrenaica, and Fezzan). After Italian colonial rule in the first half of the 20th century, it became independent in 1951 as a constitutional monarchy under King Idris.

After independence, Libya, which struggled to circulate its economy on its own, increasingly relied on foreign countries, mainly the United States and the United Kingdom. When abundant oil resources began to be discovered in the mid-1950s, foreign capital flowed in, further strengthening this trend. Against this backdrop of dissatisfaction with the situation and nationalism based on Arabism, a military coup was staged in 1969 by military officer Muammar al-Qaddafi (Gaddafi). Governance under the Gaddafi regime initially aimed to achieve Libya’s political independence. To that end, it proceeded with the seizure of foreign capital and the withdrawal of foreign military bases, worsening relations with Western countries. However, after the economic crisis of the 1970s, its politics gradually became more authoritarian.

Then, in 2011, the wave of pro-democracy movements known as the “Arab Spring,” which spread mainly in North Africa and the Middle East, also reached Libya. Repression by the Gaddafi regime escalated into armed conflict, and after NATO intervention, the regime collapsed. Gaddafi himself was killed in October 2011. With the regime toppled without a clear governing organization or leader to steer the country, Libya entered a prolonged state of instability.

During the conflict, the National Transitional Council (NTC) was set up as an interim government with support from international organizations. However, the NTC failed to manage the chaotic Libyan situation, and different factions began to administer various parts of Libya. The NTC created the General National Congress (GNC) through elections in 2012 as a body to establish a legal system for the country, but it did not dissolve even after its term expired. In this context, new parliamentary elections were held, and the House of Representatives (HOR) was established in 2014. Soon after, however, Islamist forces that opposed the election results, which were carried out with a limited number of voters, expelled the HOR from the capital Tripoli and established their own government. The expelled HOR also formed a government in its refuge of Tobruk, leading to the coexistence of two governments in Libya.

Under these circumstances, the Tobruk government formed an armed group called the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by former national army officer Khalifa Haftar, who aimed to defeat all Islamist forces within Libya. In 2015, with UN mediation, the establishment of the Government of National Accord (GNA) was agreed upon, and the Tripoli and Tobruk governments began rapprochement. However, the Tobruk government ultimately did not endorse the GNA, resulting in the coexistence of the GNA and the Tobruk government.

In 2019, the LNA attempted to seize Tripoli, but the GNA, backed by Turkey, withstood the offensive. In 2020, Haftar of the LNA began an oil production blockade to pressure the GNA. Subsequently, although a ceasefire agreement was reached between the two governments as of February 2020, it fell apart due to armed clashes shortly thereafter.

Khalifa Haftar, head of the LNA (Photo: Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY 4.0])

The 2020 ceasefire and the two new governments

So far, we have reviewed the Libyan situation as reported in GNV’s 2020 article. Libya still has two governments coexisting, but the specifics differ from those in 2020. From here, we look at developments since 2020.

As mentioned earlier, the ceasefire agreement reached in February 2020 between the GNA and the HOR became meaningless due to armed clashes shortly afterwards. However, in August of that year, the GNA announced an immediate ceasefire, to which Haftar of the LNA, aligned with the HOR, responded by lifting the oil facility blockade he had maintained since early 2020, and tensions gradually began to ease.

Then in October, delegations from the GNA and the LNA reached a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire agreement. The agreement provided for withdrawal from front lines by military formations, the departure of mercenaries and foreign fighters from Libya, and the planned launch of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF), a political framework to verify implementation of the agreement.

The LPDF held in Tunisia in November agreed to hold national elections (parliamentary and presidential) in December 2021 and developed a roadmap toward that goal. In March 2021, as part of the process toward those elections and with UN support, the Government of National Unity (GNU) was established as an interim government. Mohamed Younis Menfi was selected as chairman of the Presidential Council and Abdul Hamid Mohammed Dbeibah as prime minister, aiming to unify the divided government. The GNA transferred power to the new government, and the HOR also approved it, making it appear that Libyan politics was finally getting on track.

Abdul Hamid Mohammed Dbeibah, elected as prime minister (Photo: Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY 4.0])

However, in September 2021, as the year-end elections approached, the HOR passed a no-confidence motion against the GNU. Although the GNU continued governance as an interim administration and said the elections would proceed as planned, they were ultimately postponed. The HOR’s no-confidence in the GNU was one factor, but other reasons cited include the failure to establish rules on candidates and the electoral method, and the lack of domestic consensus even on whether a presidential election should be held in the first place. The UN has since announced plans to hold national elections in Libya, but as of March 2025 there is no prospect of them being held.

Thus, with national elections still not held, the division of government institutions has continued. Since the GNU is an interim government only until elections are held, the HOR demanded its dissolution, but Prime Minister Dbeibah refused and has remained in power. In response, the HOR established its own Government of National Stability (GNS), and these two administrations continue to confront each other to this day.

In this way, political stalemate persists in Libya, perpetuating political and economic uncertainty and security problems. As of 2025, the ceasefire agreement concluded in 2020 remains in force, but sporadic armed clashes continue to occur in various locations. Although Libyan armed groups broadly fall under the umbrellas of the two governments, they are not controlled as a whole; various armed groups formed in 2011 still exist, and clashes between armed groups are frequent. In August 2024, in response to rising tensions between the two governments, armed organizations linked to each administration stepped up their mobilization. These mobilizations did not lead to large-scale clashes, but at least nine people were killed in Tripoli around the same time due to armed confrontations between militias.

Libya’s dependence on oil

As we have seen, for a country with an unstable political situation, its source of revenue is energy, such as oil and natural gas. In Libya, more than 90% of government revenue and exports, and about 70% of GDP, are accounted for by the energy sector, and the impact of energy resources on the economy is enormous. As a result, oil resources in particular are crucial for all political and armed actors and have often been used as a tool of political struggle. For example, in 2022 when eastern forces newly established the GNS, they shut down oil fields to pressure the GNU and Prime Minister Dbeibah.

More recently, the issue in August 2024 concerning the central bank governor stands out. The GNU’s plan to dismiss Central Bank Governor Sadiq al-Kabir met fierce resistance from the HOR and the LNA, and the HOR also closed oil fields under its control in protest. Since most of Libya’s oil fields are under the control of LNA’s Haftar, the damage to Libya as a whole from such measures is immeasurable.

The central bank that became the stage of the dispute (Photo: Hussein Eddeb / Shutterstock.com)

Why did the eastern forces take such a hardline stance? It is due to the significant role played by Libya’s central bank. In general, central banks are responsible for implementing monetary policy. In addition to those functions, Libya’s central bank manages the revenue from oil production, which is centralized under the National Oil Corporation (NOC). Although the central bank is under the GNU’s control, it also pays the salaries of civil servants in areas controlled by eastern forces. In Libya, 37% of the population (72% of the working-age population) is employed by the government as civil servants. Considering this and more, personnel matters concerning the central bank governor are extremely important for both governments.

This dispute ended in September 2024, when the eastern and western governments reached an agreement under UN mediation to appoint a new governor and deputy governor. The eastern forces also lifted the oil field closures, and oil production fully resumed. For now, the agreement is being implemented without issues, but whether stability will continue remains to be seen.

Migration and refugee issues

With political instability continuing in Libya, issues concerning migrants and refugees are also serious. Facing the Mediterranean, Libya is geographically positioned to connect other African countries and Europe. As a result, due to this geographical condition combined with the political condition of inadequate governance, Libya has become a departure point for migrants and refugees from across Africa aiming to cross the Mediterranean to Europe.

Let’s look a little more closely at this situation in Libya, taking into account past GNV articles (Africa’s refugee crisis; the European Union’s maritime restrictions).

Not only is Libya geographically close to Europe, but it was also relatively wealthy among African countries, so it had already been one of the destinations for migrants and refugees within Africa. With the collapse of the Gaddafi regime described above, Libya fell into a state of conflict. However, the situation in which the central government was not functioning became an opportunity for migrants and refugees wishing to cross borders. At the same time, networks of smugglers and human traffickers also expanded, and the number of people moving by sea from Libya to Italy increased dramatically. However, such movement is always dangerous, and many people have been detained in Libya or died after encountering distress at sea.

Refugees from Libya being rescued at sea (Photo: Brainbitch / Flickr [CC BY-NC 2.0])

Europe, for its part, has taken strict measures against migrants and refugees arriving in this way. The EU has cooperated with Libya to search for, “rescue,” and return migrant and refugee boats. By providing financial and technical support to Libya, it has built a system to keep migrants and refugees inside Libya or push them back. Among those taken back to Libya, not a few have their property confiscated and are placed in detention facilities across the country, where they are subjected to forced labor and abuse (including sexual abuse).

While blocking migrants crossing the Mediterranean may have reduced the number of migrants flowing into Europe, it has not prevented incidents of violence and deaths along the way. For example, in February 2025, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) announced the discovery of two mass graves in southeastern Libya. Found during investigations into human trafficking networks, the bodies in these graves are believed to be those of migrants and refugees, and some bore gunshot wounds. This is one example illustrating the violence that migrants and refugees suffer.

In Libya, there are more than 80,000 registered refugees present. If we include refugees and asylum seekers believed to be present but not registered, about 270,000 people remain in Libya. Refugees come from various parts of Africa and the Middle East, but the largest number are from Sudan. Due to the conflict in Sudan that erupted in April 2023, 14.1 million internally displaced people were recorded in Sudan as of 2024. In Libya, which shares a border with Sudan in its northwest, around 400 people per day were arriving in a small border area as of December 2024, making aid to refugees an urgent priority.

Conclusion

We have looked at Libya’s complex political situation and the various issues it faces.

The coexistence of two governments causes confusion in governance in various ways. For example, such confusion was evident during the floods that occurred in Libya in 2023. The floods triggered by a storm in September 2023 left over 4,000 dead and more than 8,000 missing. In Derna in eastern Libya, which suffered devastating damage and is under the control of the GNS, local authorities refused entry to aid from areas under the GNU, and it reportedly took an enormous amount of time for those supplies to arrive.

That said, the two-government situation will likely continue. But is establishing a centralized government, as promoted by the United Nations, the only solution? While having a single, clearly defined negotiating partner may be preferable for foreign countries, there are also arguments that Libyan citizens have already adapted to living under the two-government system. Forced unification could easily trigger armed conflict. Measures are needed that can alleviate public anxiety in ways that avoid such outcomes. It is a difficult challenge, but continued attention to developments in Libya is necessary.