GNV News, September 26, 2025

Although the Paris Agreement was concluded in 2015 with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2030, and in 2025 the International Court of Justice mandated a fossil fuel phaseout for climate mitigation, governments’ fossil fuel production plans are accelerating, pushing the path to resolving the climate crisis even further out of reach. This is despite the fact that 1.5°C had already been exceeded in 2024. According to the 2025 Production Gap Report prepared by the Stockholm Environment Institute, Climate Analytics, and the International Institute for Sustainable Development, the fossil fuel supply the world plans by 2030 is more than twice the level compatible with the emissions required to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal.

According to the same report, of the 20 major producing countries—including the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia—that account for about 80% of global fossil fuel production, 17 plan to increase production of at least one fossil fuel, and 14 have made no adjustments to move closer to climate targets. Regarding coal, which all countries agreed to phase out at the 2021 UNFCCC COP (Conference of the Parties), India, Russia, Colombia, and Australia are intensifying extraction. In addition, major energy companies, against the backdrop of the United States under the Donald Trump administration announcing in 2025 its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and easing environmental regulations, are reducing investment in renewables and significantly increasing fossil fuel production.

Another factor behind the expansion of fossil fuel production is the longstanding reality—predating the Trump administration—of continuing fossil fuel consumption in the name of national economies and improving living standards. At COP26 in 2021 and COP28 in 2023, weak language lacking specificity was used regarding phasing out coal and transitioning away from fossil fuels, due in part to last-minute interventions by China and India, both in the midst of strong growth.

In 2023, global fossil fuel consumption was more than double what it was 50 years ago. While renewable energy has increased alongside this demand, fossil fuel consumption has also risen, so analysts warn that the current gradual energy transition must be accelerated. Energy efficiency is also improving in parallel, but it is noted that this can lower fossil fuel prices and trigger a rebound effect leading to overuse, requiring caution. Furthermore, in many countries government subsidies for fossil fuels keep prices low, hindering the uptake of renewable energy—a persistent problem.

Learn more about the actions of fossil fuel companies → “111 major fossil fuel companies: climate damages equivalent to US$28 trillion”

Learn more about the state of climate change → “The reality of exceeding 1.5°C: global climate issues, responses, and coverage in Japan”

Gas flaring at an oil facility, Mexico (Photo: Yerevan Malerva / Pexels [Pexels license])