In November 2019, Bolivia’s leftist president Evo Morales went into exile in Mexico. After protests erupted over alleged fraud in the presidential election held in October, he was forced to resign and subsequently went into exile. However, right-wing forces and the military were involved in his resignation, and it is regarded as a military coup. Following the president’s exile, demonstrations demanding the restoration of the Morales administration broke out, and more than 30 people were killed.

Evo Morales of Bolivia (Photo: Samuel Auguste / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0])

In Latin America, protests against governments have frequently occurred in recent years in countries beyond Bolivia. What is happening in these regions? Let’s take a closer look at the shifting governments of Latin American countries.

The rise of leftist governments

First, let’s review the political background of Latin America. Historically, it has long been difficult for leftist governments to come to power in Latin America. Since the colonial era, inequality has been severe, and landowners and other elites often held power. The United States also exerted strong influence; in countries such as Guatemala (1954), Brazil (1964), and Chile (1973), when the left advocating socialism took office, coups involving the U.S. occurred. As a result, from the 1980s right-wing, often authoritarian, governments predominated in Latin America.

However, with the end of the Cold War, large-scale U.S. intervention decreased. Furthermore, the failure of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) structural adjustment programs (Note 1) in the 1990s contributed to economic crises in many countries. For example, Argentina’s economy collapsed, and in Bolivia the economy stagnated and poverty increased. In this way, deteriorating economic conditions in Latin America began to negatively affect people’s lives.

Against this backdrop, in 1999 in Venezuela, elections brought the leftist Hugo Chavez to the presidency and a leftist government was born. Amid worsening economic conditions and rising numbers of people living in poverty, Chavez put forward “Socialism of the 21st Century” and carried out social and economic reforms. Backed by increased oil revenues, he advanced social programs called “missions” to tackle poverty and education.

In the 2000s, following Venezuela, leftist governments were established one after another across Latin America. In Bolivia, the leftist Morales became president in 2006. In Brazil, the left-wing Workers’ Party took office beginning in 2002. By the mid-2000s, in countries including Chile, Uruguay, Argentina, Ecuador, Mexico, and Nicaragua, roughly three-quarters of Latin America’s population was living under leftist governments. The shift toward leftist governments that began when Chavez took power came to be called the “Pink Tide,” and this phenomenon spread across the region.

Characteristics of the Pink Tide

The “Pink Tide” (Note 2) refers to the phenomenon in which, around the year 2000, many countries in the Latin American region shifted in quick succession from right-wing to left-wing governments. Although the degree varied by country, leftist governments criticized intervention by the United States, the IMF, and the World Bank, and advocated anti-neoliberalism (Note 3) and anti-imperialism. As policy goals, they aimed to reduce inequality and address poverty. In the economies of several countries, they espoused Western European social democracy, seeking to reconcile a free-market economy with a welfare state.

Specifically, to reduce inequality and poverty, education, health, and social security systems were enhanced. In Brazil, the leftist President Lula da Silva implemented a policy called “Bolsa Familia.” This policy redistributed wealth by providing cash to poor households. The conditions for receiving cash were sending children to school and getting regular health checkups. Through a policy called “Fome Zero (Zero Hunger),” the government provided food to reduce hunger. Thanks to these policies, between 2007 and 2011, 44% of the population in Brazil escaped extreme poverty. The success of such policies was linked to economic growth in Latin America. As countries in the region relied on revenues from the export of oil and mineral resources, the rise in global prices for oil and minerals brought a boom. Against this backdrop, economies grew.

Lula da Silva at the World Economic Forum in 2009 (Photo: World Economic Forum / Fickr [CC BY-NC-SA 2.0])

In Bolivia as well, the leftist Morales both reduced the fiscal deficit and improved poverty. Mainly, higher market prices brought profits from the hydrocarbons industry, which contributed to policy success. Across Latin America as a whole, 35% of the population entered the middle class, and between 2000 and 2014 the poverty rate fell from 45% to 25%.

In addition to reducing poverty and inequality, these governments also worked to guarantee rights such as improving gender equality and protecting human rights. In Argentina, President Cristina Elisabet Fernández de Kirchner enacted a law on same-sex marriage. Following this, Uruguay and Brazil also came to recognize same-sex marriage. In Brazil, Lula’s successor, Dilma Rousseff, became president and focused policies on human rights protections. She also worked to improve the status of women, appointing women proactively to political posts.

Causes of the Pink Tide’s decline

Although a variety of reforms were carried out under leftist governments, bringing major changes in social conditions such as social protection and poverty reduction, in 2009 in Honduras a right-wing president began to take power in place of the leftist Manuel Zelaya. Since then, right-wing governments have come to power one after another in several Latin American countries. Why did the “Pink Tide” weaken in this way? Let’s look in detail.

First, there was the economic downturn in Latin America. After the 2008 Lehman shock, global demand for oil and mineral resources fell and market prices declined. Because countries in the region had built their booms on revenues from oil and minerals, this dealt a severe blow. Economic growth stalled and economic conditions in each country worsened. At the same time, governments began to restrict public spending. As economies deteriorated, people’s living conditions grew more difficult, and some countries saw protests erupt over everyday hardships. The most extreme example of an economic crisis is Venezuela, which has fallen into a severe humanitarian crisis stemming from hyperinflation. Under such circumstances, it became difficult for the left to stay in power.

Campaigning during Nicaragua’s 2011 elections (Photo: gaborbasch / Shutterstock.com)

Beyond the economy, abuses of power by politicians also led to the fall of leftist governments. In Bolivia, Morales abolished presidential term limits in an attempt to hold on to power. In Venezuela, under President Nicolas Maduro’s price controls, many companies went bankrupt and shortages persisted. There were also continuing corruption problems among politicians. Furthermore, under Maduro, the powers of the National Assembly were weakened. Not only in Venezuela but also in many countries such as Chile, Peru, and Argentina, bribery and other corruption scandals involving politicians were brought to light. For example, in Brazil, a massive corruption scheme involving numerous politicians was uncovered, and Lula was arrested during the 2018 presidential campaign on suspicion of involvement in corruption and was convicted.

There were not only domestic problems but also significant external influence. The United States sought to weaken Pink Tide governments and pursued various foreign policies directly and indirectly. In 2002, in Venezuela, the military attempted a coup against the Chavez administration, in which the U.S. is said to have been involved. In Haiti in 2004, the United States was also involved in a coup against President Jean-Bertrand Aristide. The U.S. is also said to have been involved in the 2009 Honduras coup against the leftist Zelaya administration. In recent years, it has imposed harsh economic sanctions on Venezuela and appears to be involved in efforts to topple the leftist Maduro government.

The resurgence of right-wing governments

Thus, since 2012, in many countries—Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and others—the right has tended to lead the country in place of the left. Many right-wing governments tried to address the economic crises that had caused dissatisfaction under leftist rule. However, right-wing governments also face various problems. Let’s look at the situation in each country under right-wing rule.

Former Peruvian President Ollanta Humala with ministers (Photo: F.A.Alba / Shutterstock.com)

In Argentina, in 2015 the right-wing Mauricio Macri took office as president. Macri was elected on a platform of improving the economy with a focus on alleviating poverty. However, austerity policies failed, leading to stagflation (Note 4) and rising unemployment. The economic situation reached a critical point.

In 2018 in Colombia, the right-wing Ivan Duque became president through elections. Duque mainly carried out tax reforms. However, public demands for reforms regarding the minimum wage, privatization, and pensions have grown. He also opposed the peace agreement concluded in 2016 with the FARC, an anti-government armed group, and the peace process is in danger of collapse.

In Brazil, in 2019 the far-right Jair Bolsonaro was elected president. As an economic policy to address the fiscal deficit, he raised the retirement age and reformed the pension system, which had accounted for 40% of government spending. The unemployment rate fell by 0.7% within eight months of his taking office. Whereas under leftist governments rights protections were actively promoted, under the new administration discrimination against women and indigenous peoples has worsened. In particular, human rights violations against indigenous peoples in the Amazon have been repeated, and development has been advancing on indigenous lands. These Amazon policies have also reduced foreign investment. As under leftist governments, corruption problems have continued.

Chilean President Sebastián Piñera (left) and Brazilian President Bolsonaro (right) (Photo: Palácio do Planalto / Flickr [CC BY 2.0])

A shifting political system

Although it is true that there are more right-wing governments compared to the Pink Tide era, large-scale protests have erupted against right-wing governments, and some countries have seen the left return to power.

In Chile, under the right-wing government, economic policies such as raising the prices of public services and cutting subsidies dealt a heavy blow to workers and the middle class. In 2019, massive protests broke out against social inequalities such as the neoliberal economy, discrimination against indigenous peoples, and widening disparities. More than one million people took part; at least 20 people died and about 1,600 were injured. Similarly, in Ecuador there were also large-scale protests over the ending of subsidies. Furthermore, as mentioned at the outset, protests against the government have also occurred in Bolivia, Colombia, and Haiti.

Demonstration by supporters of Morales in Bolivia (Photo: Zlatica Hoke / Wikimedia Commons [public domain])

In 2019, in Argentina, in response to the economic crisis, the leftist Alberto Fernández became president, and the left returned to power. In Mexico as well, a leftist was elected president. In Uruguay, a right-wing government has not emerged and the left has continued in power.

There was also a major development in Brazil, governed by the far right, in 2019. Lula da Silva, the leftist former president who had worked to address poverty during the Pink Tide and had been imprisoned in a corruption case, was released on bail. The court recognized that the corruption case had been fabricated and granted bail. In the 2018 presidential election, Lula had been the overwhelming favorite, but his arrest during the campaign led to Bolsonaro’s victory. Lula’s arrest is seen as having been orchestrated for political purposes. Thus, it cannot be ruled out that Brazil’s government may also be shaken.

Looking at developments over time across countries in this way, we can see that although the “Pink Tide” phenomenon that appeared in the 2000s has gradually waned, it cannot be said to have ended completely. Influences from both domestic and external sources have left Latin American governments in flux. In the 2000s, policies under leftist governments improved poverty and inequality, but poverty problems remain. Moreover, corruption among politicians continues, whether on the right or the left. In addition, under any government the economy is built on mineral extraction and consumption booms, leading to severe environmental destruction and harm to people who should be protected—indigenous peoples and residents of mining regions. Protests have frequently broken out due to dissatisfaction with governments. To improve this situation, whether the government is right-wing or left-wing, it is necessary to maintain a sustainable economic situation and build an autonomous political system that the public can support, focusing on enhancing social protection and reducing poverty.

Note 1: Structural adjustment programs: Plans aimed at achieving economic growth by reforming the economic structures of low-income countries—for example, to resolve debt problems—by changing policies, reducing government intervention, and liberalizing markets.

Note 2: Pink Tide: The term plays on “red tide,” which originally referred to the spread of communism. In contrast, the shift to leftist governments in Latin America produced socialist-leaning governments that did not go so far as communism. To indicate a hue less “red”—i.e., less intense than communism—the color pink is used, hence “Pink Tide.”

Note 3: Neoliberalism: An economic policy stance that reduces government intervention in markets, deregulates, and places value on the outcomes of free market competition.

Note 4: Stagflation: The simultaneous occurrence of recession (stagnation) and rising prices (inflation).

Writer: Saki Takeuchi

Graphics: Saki Takeuchi