The planet is currently 1°C warmer than the global average temperature at the time of the Industrial Revolution. On October 18, 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report that significantly heightened the sense of crisis. According to the report, the global average temperature will rise by 1.5°C compared with the Industrial Revolution as early as 2040—earlier than previously predicted—and to prevent that, full-scale measures must be taken by 2030, in other words, within 12 years, it indicates. What will happen to the Earth if the world does not get serious about environmental issues now? Since the second half of 2018, a succession of studies has been published depicting this dire situation for the planet. Is this grave situation reflected in media coverage?

Students at COP24 declaring “Only 12 years left” (Photo: Avaaz/Flickr[Public Domain Mark 1.0])

A series of reports heightening the sense of crisis

First among these many reports, as mentioned at the outset, was the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5°C. It strongly argued that the rise in global average temperature relative to the Industrial Revolution should be limited to 1.5°C or less. If temperatures rise by 2°C, by 2100 sea-level rise will affect people in the hundreds of millions, and the probability that insects and plants necessary for crop pollination will lose half their habitat will double compared with a 1.5°C increase, it says. To avoid such a situation and keep warming to 1.5°C, urgent and unprecedented measures are needed by 2030.

Thus, to avoid the most severe impacts, reform of the global economy within a few years is required, and one proposal is to introduce a high tax on carbon dioxide emissions—up to $27,000 per ton. More concretely, to keep warming below 1.5°C, stringent measures are reportedly needed: reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030; lowering coal use from the current 40% to 1–7% by 2050; and increasing renewable energy such as wind and solar from the current 20% to at least 67%.

Then, about a month after this report, on November 22, another report underscoring the gravity of the problem was released, this time by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) concerning greenhouse gases (Note 1). It emphasized that carbon dioxide levels in 2017 were unlike anything seen in the past 3–5 million years, and that there is no sign of a reversal in the upward trend of greenhouse gases. It also noted the resurgence of the banned gas trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), a type of chlorofluorocarbon. CFC-11 is a powerful greenhouse gas and an ozone-depleting substance regulated under the 1987 Montreal Protocol. Although production fell to zero by 2010, in recent years the decline in atmospheric concentration has slowed, raising concerns about future increases. Since 2012, the rate of decline has fallen to two-thirds of that during the decade prior to 2012, and the cause is thought to be increased emissions in East Asia. Furthermore, it reported that methane and nitrous oxide, well-known greenhouse gases, have increased by 257% and 122%, respectively, compared with pre-industrial levels—an astonishing rise.

Carbon dioxide emissions (Photo: Ian Britton/frickr[CC BY-NC 2.0])

This WMO report was released about a week before the 24th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP24) (Note 2), held in Poland. At the Talanoa Dialogue (Note 3), which involves not only national governments but also companies, local authorities, and NGOs, topics related to the WMO report were promptly discussed. Together with the IPCC report, it served as material to argue that efforts on global environmental issues require urgency.

The day after the WMO report, on November 23, an environmental report by U.S. federal agencies was released. This periodic report by federal agencies is mandated by law, and this was the fourth since 2000. Covering themes similar to the IPCC report, it asserted that “if there is no movement to halt global warming, the economic damage by 2100 will be greater than during the Great Depression.” Specifically, damages of $500 billion are projected due to crop losses, unemployment, and extreme weather. In response, the White House regarded the report as a “worst-case scenario” and has effectively ignored it.

Drought conditions (Photo: Global Water Partnership/Flickr[CC BY-NC-SA 2.0])

In 2019, there was a report in January that ocean temperatures are rising more rapidly than expected. Furthermore, on May 6, the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), which involves the governments of 132 countries, released a report stating that about one million species of plants and animals are at risk of extinction. Human activities have affected 66% of vertebrate species, and it is thought that at least about 680 vertebrate species have gone extinct since the 16th century. With 2°C of warming, the estimated proportion of species at risk of extinction is 5%. Even with 1.5–2°C of warming, terrestrial species are projected to decline substantially. The publication of reports on climate change will likely continue.

Perhaps influenced by such reports, civil society movements addressing climate change have also been gaining momentum recently. An organization called Extinction Rebellion holds frequent demonstrations, mainly in European countries, to raise alarm at governments’ slow responses to environmental issues. In protests in London, UK, hundreds were arrested, suggesting a level of intensity exceeding that of previous climate-related movements. In addition, the activism of Swedish high school student Greta Thunberg, calling for solutions to environmental problems, spread worldwide, with school strikes planned in more than 100 countries and drawing great attention. She also delivered an impassioned speech before national leaders at COP24. While government action toward solving environmental problems is sluggish, more and more people are recognizing the planet’s crisis and taking action.

A scene from an Extinction Rebellion demonstration (Photo: Andrew Tijou/Flickr[CC BY-NC-ND 2.0])

How to view reporting on climate change

As noted, since the second half of 2018 there has been a spate of startling reports on the environment, making it clear that the planet is approaching a critical state sooner than previously thought. The media and news organizations, whose role is to detect and convey to readers trends and issues that affect humanity’s survival, should recognize the importance and be expected to increase coverage of climate change. What has actually happened to the volume of coverage?

The COP, the largest international conference on climate change issues held since 1995, is covered every year, but in light of the reports that heightened the sense of crisis in 2018, we would hope that the perceived importance of the COP in media coverage has increased compared with usual years. Has reporting on climate change actually increased compared with past COP periods? Let us look at coverage during the 2016, 2017, and 2018 conferences and the week before and after each.

Using the Asahi Shimbun database to count articles containing the keyword “climate change,” we found 0.88 articles/day during the period from one week before to one week after the 2016 conference (COP22) (Note 4). Similarly, the figure was 0.96 articles/day in 2017 and 1.04 articles/day in 2018. Although it is increasing slightly, this amounts to about one article per day.

COP24 held in Poland (Photo: UNclimatechange/Flickr[CC BY-NC-SA 2.0])

Furthermore, after multiple reports indicating a devastating outlook for the planet’s future and the conclusion of COP24, we would hope that in 2019 the sense of urgency around environmental issues increased compared with the previous year. Examining the Asahi Shimbun database for the first half of 2018 and 2019, there were 119 articles in total that contained the keyword “climate change”: 52 in the first half of 2018 and 67 in the first half of 2019. Focusing on the titles of these 119 articles, those whose titles included climate-related keywords such as “global warming” or “IPCC” numbered 10 (16,299 characters) in the first half of 2018 and 16 (28,706 characters) in the same period of 2019, for a total of 26. Seen this way, articles for which climate change was the main theme increased in the first half of 2019 compared with the same period a year earlier, suggesting growing awareness of climate change. However, 16 articles over six months—two or three per month—seems a small volume of coverage. It does not appear to be enough to convey how close the planet is to crisis.

Climate change as a talking point?

To understand how the media views climate change, it is important not only to look at sheer volume of coverage, but also to examine the content and context. Looking at articles containing the keyword “climate change” in the first half of 2019, many stood out for mentioning climate change in connection with trending topics in Japan such as the Tokyo Olympics, the G20, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (Note 5).

For the Tokyo Olympics to be held in 2020, the promotion of the SDGs has been pledged. Referring to SDG goals 13 to 15—“Take urgent action to combat climate change,” “Conserve and sustainably use the oceans,” and “Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems”—the organizers aim to run an environmentally friendly Games. As a result, in stories about the management of the Tokyo Olympics, the SDGs are highlighted, and climate change is mentioned quietly as one of those SDG goals. In addition, because climate change was discussed at the G20 held from June 28, reporting on climate change also increased.

The Japanese government has been trumpeting its consideration for “climate change” in order to make these events and initiatives a success, and the increase in coverage that mentions climate change can be seen as reflecting this. Rather than getting to the heart of the problem, climate change has often been reported as a tag-along topic tied to such events and initiatives.

Coral reefs bleached by ocean warming (Photo: Stop Adani/Flickr[CC BY 2.0])

As we saw at the beginning, from the second half of 2018 into 2019 there was a succession of reports on climate change that corroborate the planet’s critical state. It is clear that bold and large-scale reforms in the world’s economies and societies are needed without delay. The role of the media should be to detect, recognize, and convey the scale and urgency of the threats facing citizens, nations, and the world. Yet despite how close this existential issue has come, there is little reporting that centers on climate change and sounds the alarm, suggesting the media may not be fully fulfilling its role. As a result, it will be harder to spur the crucial actions by individuals, companies, and governments that could change this grave situation.

How will the world tackle climate change from here? To understand those efforts and challenges, we can only hope that news organizations will properly fulfill their role.

Note 1: Gases that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation. Infrared radiation emitted from the Earth’s surface remains in the atmosphere, is stored as heat, and returns to the Earth’s surface, warming the air and raising temperatures. Representative examples include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorocarbons.

Note 2: Based on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted in 1992 with the ultimate goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC has been held every year since 1995 .

Note 3: The Talanoa Dialogue is aimed at sharing best practices for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and boosting ambition toward achieving targets; it was held over the year from January to December 2018 up to COP24. Talanoa is a word in the language of Fiji, the presidency of COP23, meaning an inclusive, participatory, and transparent dialogue process .

Note 4: The period from one week before to one week after the COP. 2016: October 31 to November 25; 2017: October 30 to November 24; 2018: November 25 to December 23.

Note 5: The international goals for 2016–2030 adopted at the UN Summit in September 2015. Comprising 17 goals and 169 targets to achieve a sustainable world, they pledge to leave no one behind. For how the SDGs are covered in the media, please refer to past GNV articles.

Writer: Naru Kanai

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