August 20, 2023. In Guatemala, located in Central America, a new president who campaigned on eradicating corruption, César Bernardo Arévalo de León (hereafter Arevalo), was elected. Running from a small party, he was thought to have little support in pre-election polls, making the result surprising. Frustration with corruption appears to have fueled his support. However, despite his electoral victory, there are forces that tried to block his swearing-in, and even after he took office have sought to remove Arevalo from the presidency. At the center of these forces is said to be Attorney General María Consuelo Porras Argueta (hereafter Porras).
This article looks back at Guatemala’s history and explores Arevalo’s reforms and the forces opposing them.
Scene from President Arevalo’s inauguration (Photo: Gobierno de Guatemala / Flickr [Public domain])
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Formation of Guatemala
Before looking at the current situation in Guatemala, let us review its history. From around 2000 BCE, the Maya lived in what is now Guatemala, where Maya civilization developed. The cities of the Maya civilization are said to have declined due to climate change, population growth, and other factors. Even so, Maya kingdoms continued to exist, and the most influential among them was the K’iche’ Kingdom that arose in the Guatemalan highlands. The kingdom held great influence in the region until it was conquered by Spain in 1524, with the Spanish collaborating with other Maya kingdoms that opposed the K’iche’ to defeat it. There were other small Maya kingdoms as well, but they too were destroyed. In addition to the Maya, other peoples such as the Xinca lived in and around Guatemala, and, like the Maya, maintained their own cultures until colonial rule began.
In 1542, Spain established the Captaincy General of Guatemala and began colonial rule, leading to a large influx of settlers. They instituted the encomienda system, a colonial policy by which land owned by local people was seized, they were forced into slave labor on plantation farms, and they were converted to Christianity and given Christian education. By the 17th century, such slave labor had declined, but inequality remained. Guatemala became fully independent in 1839, but the status of the Maya did not improve, and descendants of the settlers formed the core of the government.
Independence did not end interference from Western countries. Pursuing imperialist policies, the United States, Spain, and others intervened militarily and economically in Latin America. Amid this, the United States sought to eliminate European influence in the region. As a result of the Spanish–American War in 1898, Spain withdrew from the Americas, and U.S. corporations advanced into Latin America.
Among the most influential of these companies was the United Fruit Company (UFC). UFC operated banana plantations and engaged in economic exploitation in Guatemala and other Latin American countries. Receiving economic and political support from the U.S. government, UFC wielded power greater than local governments and pushed them to adopt favorable policies, leading Guatemala to be called a “banana republic.”
Beyond exploiting vast lands and labor, UFC was also entrusted with postal services inside Guatemala and the construction and management of railways related to the banana trade. In the 1930s, the Guatemalan government implemented policies that exempted Maya people from taxes in exchange for plantation labor and banned the formation of labor unions. As a result, even if UFC cut costs by worsening working conditions, workers could not press employers for higher wages or better environments.
Revolution and coup
In 1944, people opposed to such favorable treatment of foreign corporations and authoritarian politics launched the Guatemalan Revolution, and Juan José Arévalo Bermejo, elected by popular vote, became president. He promulgated a new constitution, re-legalized labor unions, and expanded social security. His successor, President Jacobo Árbenz Guzmán (hereafter Arbenz), focused on agrarian reform. Despite Guatemala’s fertile land, at the time 2% of landowners controlled 72% of arable land. To improve the situation in which farmers did not own land, the newly enacted agrarian reform law mandated the redistribution of vast idle lands to farmers.
However, this law made the government an enemy of UFC, because the company’s extensive land holdings were also subject to redistribution. Over disputes with the government regarding compensation for expropriated land, UFC clashed with the authorities and sought assistance from the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). The CIA authorized a plan to depose Arbenz via a coup and had Colonel Carlos Castillo Armas in Guatemala carry it out. His rebel forces received training and financial support from the CIA, succeeded in the coup, and he installed himself as president.
Cargo ship used by UFC to transport bananas (Photo: Detroit Publishing Co., Library of Congress / Picryl [Public domain])
His regime was backed by the United States, re-criminalized labor unions, returned land distributed to farmers to the original owners, and disenfranchised people who could not read or write. In this way, Guatemala’s democratic politics came to an end. The decade from the 1944 Guatemalan Revolution to the 1954 coup is also called the “Ten Years of Spring.”
Toward armed conflict
In 1960, a group of leftist military officers opposed to the Castillo regime and subsequent governments attempted a coup. The attempt failed, triggering what would become a 36-year conflict. Leftist guerrilla groups supported by Fidel Castro in Cuba were formed, and the conflict centered on the confrontation between right and left. The government is said to have arrested or killed not only guerrillas but also leftist civilians, while leftist guerrillas are believed to have assassinated officials in Guatemala and the United States.
By 1970, military control over civilians intensified, and the government is said to have massacred people who spoke out against the regime regardless of whether they were left- or right-leaning. Many of them were Indigenous. Indigenous people, many of whom were poor, were perceived as being drawn to the egalitarian ideals of communism and were massacred by the government, according to reports. Meanwhile, leftist guerrillas strengthened their ties with the rural poor and the Maya.
The most brutal period of government massacres was the early 1980s. The Maya are said to have been the main targets of the violence. In fact, more than 440 Maya villages were destroyed between 1982 and 1983, and studies report that children were often targeted in massacres, victims were tortured before death, and women were frequently raped during the atrocities.
Exhumation of remains from the conflict era (Photo: Trocaire, CAFCA archive / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY 2.0])
The United States supported the Guatemalan government as part of its anti-communist policy, but with the end of the Cold War, the country moved toward peace. In 1994, peace negotiations were held between the government and the insurgents, and in 1996, under a newly elected president, a peace accord was signed, ending the 36-year conflict.
Entrenched corruption persists
Under the peace accords, the government implemented a ceasefire and demobilization of guerrillas, as well as military reform, the creation of a civilian police force, strengthening of the rights of Indigenous peoples including the Maya, and reforms of administration and the judiciary, but problems with public security and corruption persisted. The legacy of the long war is part of the backdrop, but drug trafficking is closely involved. Located in Central America, Guatemala is a transit point on the route by which drugs (mainly cocaine) produced in South America reach North America. Drug trafficking organizations are said to have forged close ties with the government to prevent their activities from being stopped or to covertly gain cooperation, according to reports.
To improve this situation, in 2006 the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) was established in cooperation with the United Nations to support investigations into corruption cases and dismantle criminal organizations. The body did not have prosecutorial powers and instead cooperated with existing Guatemalan prosecutors, contributing to the arrest of hundreds of elites such as government officials and police officers, and to a decline in crime rates, according to reports.
However, the situation changed under President Jimmy Morales, who took office in 2016. Morales himself faced allegations of illicit campaign financing, and his son and brother were arrested on suspicion of money laundering. In response, Morales claimed that CICIG was unconstitutional and a threat to national security, and ended the commission’s mandate upon its expiration in 2019, terminating its work.
In 2020, Alejandro Giammattei succeeded Morales as president. During his tenure, corruption is said to have worsened. After CICIG’s closure, some political and economic elites reportedly sought to return Guatemala’s judiciary to its pre-CICIG corrupt state, according to reports. With CICIG’s end, the Special Prosecutor’s Office against Impunity (FECI) was established to conduct anti-corruption investigations. However, its director was replaced with someone suspected of corruption by a predecessor who had investigated many corruption cases. He has also prosecuted judges, prosecutors, and investigators linked to CICIG, and is accused of trying to obstruct corruption investigations.
In 2023, amid this deterioration, presidential elections were held. The candidates were a handful of figures close to past presidents criticized for corruption and candidates from small parties, including Arevalo’s Semilla party. Among those pledging to eradicate corruption, candidates who were widely popular and opposed to the status quo were barred from running by the Constitutional Court. As a result, politicians tainted by corruption remained the strongest contenders. In the first round in June 2023, invalid ballots were the most numerous (Note 1), but Arevalo advanced to the runoff.
The following month, Attorney General Porras and the head of FECI asked the Constitutional Court to suspend Arevalo’s party on the grounds of irregularities at its founding. The court initially accepted Porras’s request, but after Semilla appealed, it ultimately allowed Arevalo to participate in the runoff. In the runoff, Arevalo won nearly 60% of the vote, an unexpected outcome. His party is small and relatively new, and unlike other parties, it reportedly did not receive covert funding or run flashy campaigns. With people’s frustration over government corruption mounting, votes appear to have consolidated around Arevalo. He is the son of Juan José Arévalo, who became president during the 1944 Guatemalan Revolution and is remembered for governing with the people’s interests in mind rather than UFC’s.
After his victory, Porras and prosecutors are said to have seized ballots and attempted to invalidate the results. It is said this was to prevent Porras—accused of obstructing corruption investigations—from losing the ability to shield the existing political and economic elite if Arevalo took office. At a press conference, the prosecutor’s office called for the election to be annulled, but the Guatemalan electoral authority declared the election valid. As a result, Arevalo assumed the presidency in January 2024.
Arevalo’s reforms
We now look at the policies and reforms undertaken since Arevalo took office. His campaign pledges included eradicating corruption and improving public security. Arevalo also addressed the discrimination faced since colonial times by Indigenous peoples (Note 2), including the Maya. He was the first president to mention Indigenous peoples in his inaugural address, raising expectations among Indigenous communities.
Representatives of Indigenous peoples, including the Maya, have been meeting monthly with Arevalo and engaging in dialogue from his election through January 2024. Regular dialogue of this kind is the first since the Spanish arrived. While some praise him, relations between Indigenous peoples and the new administration are not entirely smooth. For example, the advancement of hydroelectric dam construction without taking Indigenous views into account has drawn criticism.
Arevalo has also implemented social policies. Studies indicate that many schools in Guatemala require repairs, and to improve these conditions, schools are being refurbished. As of September 2024, as many as 7,500 schools had been renovated. In health care, a cancer care bill was passed that enables specialized treatment for cancer patients and provides protections for patients’ families.
Next, we consider the anti-corruption measures Arevalo has taken. He established the National Commission for the Prevention of Corruption (CNC) to carry out crackdowns. Working with ministries, the CNC is moving to expose endemic corruption especially in public works, health, and education sectors. Arevalo has also sanctioned civil servants suspected of corruption. In the first month after he took office, nearly 1,000 people were dismissed for suspected corruption or failure to adequately perform their duties.
Eradicating corruption also requires improving public security and cracking down on drug trafficking organizations. To improve security, Arevalo has expanded the national police, deployed new trucks and motorcycles, and increased personnel. However, because the police force has been corroded by corruption similarly to the judiciary, major effects have not yet been observed. He introduced a bill on security policy, including border protection, but because his party does not hold a majority, it has not been passed. Regarding drugs, Arevalo has stated that marijuana should be decriminalized to focus enforcement on comparatively stronger drugs such as heroin and cocaine, but this has not been realized.
Attorney General Consuelo Porras (Photo: CARLOS SEBASTIÁN / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY 4.0])
Confrontation with the Attorney General
Still, Arevalo’s path to eradicating corruption is a long one. One reason is the powerful influence of the Guatemalan prosecutor’s office and Porras at its center. Porras has been attorney general since 2018. Under her, the prosecutor’s office has reportedly obstructed many corruption investigations. Prosecutors and judges who investigated corruption have been unjustly prosecuted, and some have gone into exile after being convicted. It has also been noted that the government lacks personnel who support anti-corruption efforts, and Arevalo is said to have been betrayed by key figures in his own administration. The Vice Minister of Sustainable Development was also dismissed for corruption in April 2024.
Many of Arevalo’s supporters seem to believe that Porras is the main obstacle to his agenda, but removing her is not easy. Legally, the president cannot dismiss the attorney general mid-term, and Porras’s term runs until 2026. Arevalo therefore submitted a bill to Congress to allow the president to dismiss the attorney general. It required 107 of 158 votes to pass but received only 50 and failed. While it is institutionally possible for Arevalo to bring criminal charges against Porras and remove her upon conviction, 10 of the 13 Supreme Court justices have themselves been accused of corruption in the past, making it difficult to secure her removal through a guilty verdict. In response to the prosecutor’s office obstructing corruption investigations, foreign governments and the United Nations have voiced criticism. Porras has been sanctioned as an individual by more than 42 countries over alleged corruption.
Outlook
Guatemala faces many problems built up over a long history. Among them, entrenched corruption stands out. Arevalo appears to be moving toward resolving corruption, but politicians and officials involved in corruption still remain, and as we have seen, even the attorney general is working to obstruct his policies. Guatemala is also suffering from the effects of drug trafficking, which negatively affects both North and South America. In addition, historical issues such as discrimination against Indigenous peoples and problems in education and health care—still recovering from years of armed conflict—remain. How far Arevalo and the Guatemalan government can go in resolving these issues bears continued watching.
Note 1: Guatemalan law states that if a majority of all ballots cast in a presidential election are invalid, the election is annulled. Supporters of candidates barred from running appear to have sought to force a re-run by triggering this law. Their casting of invalid ballots is considered one reason invalid ballots were the most numerous, according to analysis.
Note 2: Indigenous peoples account for about 40% of Guatemala’s population today.
Writer: Hikaruko Yamamoto
Graphics: Ayane Ishida
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