We have only three years left to avoid the worst climate change.

In June 2017, this kind of research finding was published regarding the current state of global warming. With only a three-year grace period remaining, will people actually feel a sense of crisis? Because climate change is a phenomenon that progresses gradually over decades and centuries, it can be hard to recognize how urgent the situation is. That is where media reporting becomes crucial. As the primary source of information for the general public, what and how much has the media conveyed about global warming and climate change?

The current state of climate change

The scientific consensus holds that if the Earth’s average temperature rises 1.5–2°C or more above pre-industrial levels, the planet will face the worst climate change. Sea levels will rise; droughts and floods will increase; there will be more heat waves and devastating storms; and oceans will acidify. As a result, ecosystems will be damaged, potentially leading to global food shortages. The difference between 1.5°C and 2°C as a tipping point is also significant, making it important to keep the increase as close to 1.5°C as possible.

In reality, however, as of 2016 the average temperature had already risen by more than 1°C compared to 1720–1800, considered the pre-industrial period. With no brake on that rise, the Earth’s average temperature continued to set record highs for three consecutive years from 2014. At the same time, climate change, including extreme weather, is advancing at a furious pace. Excerpts from data published by NASA (the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration) include:

・Extreme weather

While extreme weather events caused by low temperatures are decreasing, those caused by high temperatures are increasing. The number of heavy rainfall events has also increased significantly.

・Sea level rise

Sea level rise in the 20th century was about 20 cm, whereas in the last 20 years it has been about 40 cm.

・Ice sheet reduction

From 2002–2006, Greenland lost 150–250 km² of ice sheet; from 2002–2005, Antarctica lost 152 km². Arctic sea ice and Alpine glaciers have also rapidly declined over the past several decades.

・Ocean acidification

Due to increased carbon dioxide emissions, surface ocean acidification has progressed by about 30% since the Industrial Revolution.

(For detailed graphs, see the NASA homepage.)

Frequent extreme weather is expected to continue Photo: Zacarias Pereira da Mata/ Shutterstock.com

These numerical changes alone may feel abstract, making it hard to sense real harm. But Pacific island nations are already suffering severe damage. In the Solomon Islands alone, five islands have already been submerged.

In addition, the World Health Organization (WHO) has announced an estimate that “because of climate change, between 2030 and 2050 there will be an additional 250,000 deaths per year.” In other words, the impacts of climate change on our lives are by no means a distant future concern.

Changing awareness of climate change over the past 30 years

What measures has the world taken in response? In 1985, an academic international conference on climate change held in Villach helped spread global recognition and alarm about the issue. In 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established to report the latest scientific research on climate change. In its first report in 1990, the IPCC pointed out the need for an international treaty to address global warming. Against this backdrop, at the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (Earth Summit) in Rio de Janeiro, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted, with more than 190 countries joining. Since then, starting in 1995, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC has been held annually.

Representatives of countries that signed the Paris Agreement at COP21 (2015) Photo: Presidencia de la República Mexicana（ CC BY-SA 2.0 ）

Then in 1997, at COP3 (the 3rd Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol was adopted. It was the first agreement in history to set legally binding greenhouse gas reduction targets. However, only developed countries were subject to those binding targets.

Because the Kyoto Protocol covered the period 2008–2012, an agreement was needed to set reduction targets for 2013 and beyond. At COP15 in Denmark in 2009, negotiations actively addressed a post-Kyoto agreement. However, positions could not be reconciled, and an agreement setting the anticipated targets could not be reached.

At COP21 in Paris in December 2015, a turning point was finally reached, and an agreement was concluded that imposed reduction targets on both developed and developing countries. Subsequently, however, undermining the cooperative framework, in June 2017 U.S. President Trump formally announced the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.

The past 30 years: trends in the volume of climate change coverage

Amid rising global alarm, how has coverage changed in Japan? We tallied articles related to climate change over the past 30 years by year from three major Japanese newspapers (Mainichi Shimbun, Asahi Shimbun, and Yomiuri Shimbun) to examine characteristics of the coverage.

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All three papers showed almost the same volume and trend. The amount of coverage varied greatly from year to year.

Why do article numbers differ so much by year? First, coverage surged around 1990, when the threat of climate change began to be recognized. In 1992, as noted, the Earth Summit was held and the UNFCCC was adopted. In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted at COP3, and the fact that it was held in Japan likely contributed to a significant increase. In 2001, the United States announced its withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol. The necessary number of country ratifications was reached and the protocol finally entered into force in 2005. These developments were likely easy targets for coverage.

The increase in coverage from 2007 was likely heavily influenced by the decision that year to negotiate a post-Kyoto agreement. Expectations that not only developed countries but also developing countries would be assigned targets, and that the U.S. and China would participate, reflected a global rise in momentum to tackle climate change. However, the failure at COP15 in December 2009 to create a treaty meeting expectations cooled that momentum, and the volume of coverage appears to have decreased sharply. In addition, due to the impact of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, thermal power generation increased in Japan. Securing energy sources took precedence over climate change, which affected coverage and likely further reduced the volume. After the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, coverage increased to some extent, but in recent years it cannot be said to be on an upward trend.

Thus, in Japan there is a tendency for coverage to be heavily concentrated when there are political developments such as international protocols or agreements. Meanwhile, although the IPCC provides scientific knowledge about climate change and projections of damage if necessary measures are not taken, there appears to be little tangible impact on coverage volume.

Does climate change coverage rise during COP meetings?

Are the fluctuations in coverage truly due to COPs and agreements? We tallied, by month, the number of articles in Mainichi Shimbun in 2015 and 2016 on “environmental reporting,” and within that, the number on “global warming and climate change,” to look more closely at the volume of coverage.

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Looking first at the peaks in coverage, the number of articles in December 2015, when COP21 was held, was overwhelming. There was also a tendency for coverage to gradually rise from autumn leading up to the opening of COP21. The following year, COP22 took place in November 2016, which was also the month with the most articles that year. The numbers were also higher in April, September, and October, influenced by articles related to the signing, ratification, and entry into force of the Paris Agreement. Conversely, it can be said that without major international conferences or agreements, there is very little reporting on climate change.

Looking at environmental reporting more broadly, most of it is limited to climate change. Despite the existence of many other important environmental issues—such as ecosystem destruction, air and water pollution, and waste disposal—there was very little coverage of these topics.

Policies over the actual state of environmental issues

We categorized the content of environmental reporting in 2015 and 2016 into two groups: those that emphasize “the current situation and the damage it is causing,” and those that emphasize “statements and decisions by government officials in various countries and international conferences—i.e., policy responses to environmental issues.” As a result, more than three-quarters of the articles focused mainly on policy rather than on the current situation.

There are research findings indicating with over 95% probability that global warming since the mid-20th century is due to human activities. Although improvements in the activities of companies and individuals worldwide are also crucial, when international conferences are the sole focus, it is easy to get the impression that politicians alone will solve climate change.

Indeed, political news such as COPs and various agreements increases the occasions on which people see words like “global warming” and “climate change.” But without learning about the harsh realities of climate change around the world, it is difficult for people to feel a sense of urgency. Regardless of policy movements, continuously reporting on the realities and on-the-ground conditions should help generate public momentum to push for policy.

Where is the attention to the human activities causing climate change? Photo: Nickolay Khoroshkov/ Shutterstock.com

Writer: Mizuki Nakai
Graphics: Aki Horino