GNV News, September 15, 2024

On September 8, 2024, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed warned in a speech those who were “planning an invasion” of his country to think again. Although he did not specify which country the “would-be invaders” referred to, Ethiopia is currently seeing heightened tensions with Somalia and Egypt.

The friction between Ethiopia and Somalia stems from a memorandum of understanding that Ethiopia concluded in January 2024 with the unrecognized state of Somaliland. Through this agreement, landlocked Ethiopia obtained the right to use part of Somaliland’s coastline for 50 years in return for recognizing Somaliland’s independence. Although Somaliland has been de facto independent since 1991, Somalia continues to assert sovereignty over Somaliland and has protested to Ethiopia, calling it a violation of its sovereignty.

In August 2024, Egypt signed a defense pact with Somalia, under which Egyptian troops will be deployed to the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia. Egypt is also providing military support to Somalia, and this is seen as aimed at Ethiopia. One backdrop to the Ethiopia–Egypt confrontation is the massive dam project that Ethiopia is trying to complete on the upper Nile. Egypt, concerned that its vital water source could be impaired, has opposed it.

Learn more about Somalia → “Somalia: Toward Stability”

Learn more about Ethiopia’s dam → “The Non-Negotiable Nile”

Learn more about Egypt → “Egypt: Behind the Regime’s Hold on Power”

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy delivering a speech at the Somali president’s inauguration, 2022 (Photo: ATMIS Somalia / Flickr [CC0 1.0])