Recent climate change is truly anomalous and one of the most serious challenges facing humanity. Nevertheless, we cannot help but express concern that the media’s volume of coverage of climate change does not match its gravity. The media not only convey facts to the public but also have the ability to draw attention to, and sound the alarm about, crises. Insufficient coverage could indirectly accelerate climate change.

Fearing such a situation, in 2019 multiple news organizations launched the international initiative “Covering Climate Now” (Covering Climate Now). As of April 2024, more than 500 outlets from over 60 countries have joined the movement. GNV has been a partner since its founding and actively reports on climate change.

This time, GNV is introducing three articles from the news outlet “The Conversation” (The Conversation) on the relationship between food and climate change. The first is Chris Wyver’s “What Your Fruit Bowl Reveals About Climate Change,” which explains how climate change affects fruit maturation and harvest. The second is Jessica Boxall and Michael Head’s “Climate change will raise not only temperatures around the world but also food prices,” which explains how climate change drives up food prices and, in turn, contributes to food insecurity. The third is Philip Kofi Adom’s “Climate change: alarming warning of a 30% drop in crop income across Africa and 50 million people without water,” an interview-based piece that uses Africa—a region highly vulnerable to climate change—to illustrate its impacts on people.

We cannot live without food. We hope these three articles will help you grasp how climate change is having a potentially existential impact on the food we rely on in our daily lives.

Sun rising over fields (Photo: Frank van Dongen / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 Deed])

What Your Fruit Bowl Reveals About Climate Change

《A The Conversation translation, by Chris Wyver (Chris Wyver) (Note 1)》

On March 26, 2021, cherry blossoms in Kyoto were in full bloom, heralding a radiant spring. It was the earliest flowering date recorded in more than 1,200 years of annual records dating back to 812 CE.

The cause is climate change. Winters have become more wet, springs warmer, and weather increasingly variable, advancing the flowering times of many types of fruit trees.

Earlier flowering might ruin travel plans for those hoping to see Japan’s famed cherry blossoms, but for those managing over 40 million hectares of orchards worldwide, it is an even bigger headache.

Fruit trees and climate have a complex relationship. In winter, trees require a period of cold weather (known as chilling) to break dormancy and resume growth. This is followed by a period of warmth (known as heat accumulation) needed to trigger flowering in spring.

The required lengths of cold and warmth vary by fruit and cultivar, but if either is insufficient, yields and quality suffer.

As average temperatures rise, seasonal variability grows, the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and cold snaps increase, and once-stable seasonal cycles become disrupted, fruit trees are being thrown into disarray.

Despite the trend toward milder winters, in temperate regions such as Europe and North America many fruit trees still meet their chilling requirements. However, warmer springs mean trees reach their heat requirements earlier.

As a result, apples, pears, cherries, plums, and apricots are flowering earlier—sometimes by as much as two weeks.

You may notice these changes most in the quality and availability of fruit you can buy. Here’s how shifts in seasonal cycles can change what ends up in your fruit bowl.

How earlier flowering affects fruit

Shifts in flowering time have big impacts by harvest time.

Experts warn that in regions where flowering is advancing, delicate blossoms face a higher risk of harmful frost. Even a relatively brief cold snap during flowering can devastate production. In April 2017, a single night of frost reduced Europe’s apple harvest by 24% and pear production by 12%.

Many fruit trees also exhibit self-incompatibility (Note 2), meaning they cannot pollinate themselves and require pollen from another cultivar to set fruit. This pollination system often depends on insects, especially wild bees. During my PhD, I found that climate also affects the timing of wild bee life cycles.

Because bees and blossoms show different responses to climate change, some bee species may be active at times that don’t align with optimal fruit blossom pollination. Fewer pollinating insects drive up costs. A University of Reading study estimated that extremely low pollinator activity would cost £5.7 million (US$7.3 million) a year in lost production of Gala apples in the UK.

Fruit bowl (Photo: Jamie Davies / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 Deed])

If pollination is insufficient, yields decline, dry matter content (an indicator suited to representing sugar content and eating quality) changes, and the potassium-to-calcium ratio in fruit decreases.

Earlier flowering also changes taste. Studies of the Japanese apple cultivars ‘Fuji’ and ‘Tsugaru’ found lower acidity and higher soluble sugars, producing sweeter fruit. In temperate regions, such early changes may even benefit fruit quality, at least at this early stage.

However, in regions already considered warm—such as the Mediterranean coast, North Africa, and Brazil—orchards may not be able to secure enough winter chill, presenting different challenges for growers.

In other words, conditions may fail to get cold enough for trees to accumulate chill, slowing growth and reducing yields. In 2022, the UK imported 18.5% of its apples and pears, sourcing more fruit than ever from countries highly vulnerable to climate change.

South Africa and Brazil are among these. In both, days considered cold are already limited even in winter, and under future climate conditions they are expected to shrink further. Existing cultivars that require substantial chill may have to give way to those needing less, such as ‘Granny Smith’ and ‘Pink Lady’, potentially leading UK fruit aisles to be dominated by such varieties.

Even in countries not classified as particularly vulnerable to climate impacts, farmers may need to make sweeping changes to the cultivars and species they grow to keep orchards viable. By the end of the 21st century, many selectively bred cultivars (Note 3) of California apricots and peaches are projected to fail to meet chilling requirements, triggering dramatic yield declines and major shifts in crop choice.

The growing difficulties of harvesting fruit

As orchards change, supermarket shelves will inevitably change too. Experts warn that historic UK apple varieties such as ‘Pippin’ and ‘Nonpareil’, grown domestically for at least 500 years, are likely to be replaced by cultivars better suited to warmer conditions, such as ‘Fuji’ and ‘Gala’.

In the not-too-distant future, if climate change continues apace, your favorite fruit variety may become pricier—or simply unavailable.

Understanding shifts in flowering dates and their impacts on yield and quality requires extensive data, painstakingly collected by researchers at universities and horticultural stations. With smartphones and photo sharing, the public can now contribute to this crucial field.

The University of Reading’s “FruitWatch” in the UK and the U.S. “Bloom Watch” project invite citizens to report where and when fruit trees bloom. Public participation helps scientists predict flowering under climate change and provides producers with an early-warning system to gauge risks to their livelihoods.

Blossoming orchard in Canada (Photo: Christian Barrette / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 Deed])

Climate change will raise not only temperatures around the world but also food prices

《A The Conversation translation, by Jessica Boxall (Jessica Boxall) and Michael Head (Michael Head) (Note 4)》

According to new research by German scholars, climate change—especially rising temperatures—could push up food prices by 3.2% a year. Such surges, on top of worsening climate change, mean more people around the world will be unable to afford a varied, healthy diet—or may face outright food shortages.

New analysis suggests that by 2035, global warming could raise food price inflation by 0.9–3.2 percentage points per year. While overall inflation would also rise due to warming, it would do so by less (0.3–1.2 percentage points), meaning households would have to allocate a larger share of their income to food.

The impact will be worldwide. Both high- and low-income countries will be affected, but the global South will be hit particularly hard. As with many other impacts of climate change, Africa has contributed little to the problem yet will bear some of the greatest burdens.

What does price inflation mean in practice? Our research on food security in Ghana, West Africa, offers insight. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identifies West Africa as a climate change “hotspot,” projecting more extreme heat and less rainfall. Over half of Ghana’s population depends on rain-fed agriculture, making the country especially vulnerable to climate impacts.

We recently conducted a survey in Mion, a rural district in northern Ghana. Of roughly 400 people interviewed, all reported experiencing some degree of food insecurity over the past 12 months, and 99% said climate change was at least partly to blame.

Overall, 62% reported moderate or severe food insecurity, and 36% reported severe food insecurity (going a whole day without food). These rates are far worse than the national averages in Ghana (39% and 6%, respectively), but comparable to figures in some of West Africa’s poorest countries, such as Togo, Burkina Faso, and Benin.

We also surveyed refugees who had fled across the border from neighboring Burkina Faso into northeastern (?) Ghana. Here too, all respondents reported experiencing food insecurity.

Yet Mion is not suffering a sudden famine, nor is there some singular abnormal event driving this. Rather, this situation is increasingly seen as the “new normal” under climate change.

Climate-driven food inflation can be divided into two closely connected problems.

Watering at a farm in Ghana (Photo: IWMI / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 Deed])

Shifting seasons, pests, and disease

The first is that, in parallel with driving inflation, climate change is already making food harder to obtain. For example, rising temperatures can disrupt long-established, predictable agricultural calendars, undermining production.

Other impacts include increased outbreaks of pests and diseases that decimate livestock and crops, and heat-warped roads—already in poor condition—making rural communities harder to access.

All these factors push up prices and reduce the purchasing power of affected households, worsening existing food insecurity.

The second problem is rising inflation itself. If prices climb 3% a year, households cannot buy what they need.

People are likely to compromise on food quality and even cultural importance, which can increase susceptibility to illness and other health problems. Malnutrition is a leading cause of immune deficiency worldwide.

In Ghana, we found that, despite low levels of formal education, people with greater knowledge of climate change tended to be more food-secure. This suggests that those affected by climate change are acutely aware of temperature shifts and weather unpredictability and may be proactively engaging in mitigation or adaptation.

Those without schooling are more likely to work in climate-exposed occupations, notably agriculture, and thus be affected more directly. Climate change education may build adaptive capacity and enhance food security.

Climate change doubles the risk of hunger for people already living precariously. Reflecting this, at COP28 (Note 5), 134 countries signed a declaration to integrate food systems into climate action so everyone can secure sufficient food.

The researchers behind the new study suggest that reducing greenhouse gas emissions can limit climate impacts on the global economy. They also propose building more diverse economic systems to better protect communities that currently depend on agriculture for both food and income.

Market in rural Uganda (Photo: Trust for Africas Orphans (TAO) / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 Deed])

Climate change: alarming warning of a 30% drop in crop income across Africa and 50 million people without water

《A The Conversation translation, by Philip Kofi Adom (Philip Kofi Adom) (Note 6)》

According to new research from the Center for Global Development, if global warming is not kept below 2°C, African countries will suffer major economic losses after 2050.

Environmental and energy economist Philip Kofi Adom authored the report. Synthesizing decades of research by climate scholars, he found that, in the future, West and East Africa could face the worst outcomes. We asked Adom about the findings.

The report projects a 30% drop in crop income in Africa due to climate change. What will this mean for people?

If climate change continues, crop production in Africa will fall by 2.9% by 2030 and 18% by 2050, with a risk that around 200 million people will face extreme hunger by 2050. A roughly 30% drop in crop income is expected to raise poverty rates by 20%–30% compared with a no-climate-change scenario.

As production falls, scarcity will drive prices up, while sales volumes decline—this is how poverty rises.

In Africa, 42.5% of the labor force works in the agriculture sector. Their (mostly rural) incomes will fall. Rural poverty rates are already high, and most of Africa’s poor and poorest people live in rural areas. The decline of agriculture is likely to push more people into severe poverty.

Africa will also face food security problems, and those employed in agriculture risk losing their jobs. Rural farmers without irrigation systems depend solely on rainfall, leaving them among the most likely to suffer poverty.

Thinning in Mozambique (Photo: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 Deed])

The report forecasts a long-term 7.12% decline in Africa’s GDP. What would that mean?

“Long term” in the report refers to the period after 2050. GDP indicates the state of an economy’s wealth at a point in time. Wealth creation fosters businesses and jobs; taxes fund infrastructure, public services, and social protection such as health and unemployment insurance. If climate change continues at its current pace and GDP falls by 7.12%, it will seriously undermine these opportunities to generate wealth across the economy.

Country-level projections suggest very large long-term economic losses of 11.2%–26.6% in the most affected parts of Africa. As economies shrink, business activity narrows, certain jobs disappear, and fewer new jobs are created.

Why is GDP decline such a concern? Because in the not-too-distant future, Africa’s population is projected to exceed 2 billion. Africa also has the world’s largest share of young people. Economic contraction therefore raises a pressing question: where will Africa’s youth earn their livelihoods?

The report says 50 million Africans could be left without water. What does that mean?

It means severe water shortages for households and industry. For example, with a sharp drop in supply, people who once had water throughout the day will no longer be able to meet normal needs. This is a supply-and-demand problem: as demand for water grows and supply falls, prices will soar. Without action, water could become extremely expensive across Africa.

Can adaptation and mitigation help avert this catastrophe?

Discussions of climate change involve communities and collective action. Governments clearly have a major role. They must promote needed changes by directly supporting or incentivizing private initiatives for adaptation and mitigation.

Efforts toward adaptation and mitigation—no matter how small—are valuable. When coordinated, even small actions can produce results. There is much that households and businesses can do: reduce meat and dairy consumption; shift transport choices to walking, cycling, or public transit where possible; conserve energy at home; and respect and protect natural green spaces.

People who bank should check whether their banks invest responsibly. Knowing where banks invest is always important; if investments are not climate-conscious, clients and partners can raise objections.

Africa Climate Summit (2023) (Photo: Climate Centre / Flickr [CC BY-NC 2.0 Deed])

How should Africa’s leaders act?

Climate change is already unfolding—an urgent environmental crisis. Fortunately, there is still time to act before the unimaginable happens. I strongly urge Africa’s leaders to engage proactively with climate change and its mitigation. Agriculture is the backbone of most African economies, and climate change poses a major threat to it. If we do not act now, climate change may entrench enduring economic hardship.

Note 1: This article is a translation of “What your fruit bowl reveals about climate breakdown,” by Chris Wyver (Chris Wyver) at The Conversation, a partner organization of “Covering Climate Now” (Covering Climate Now), of which GNV is also a partner. We thank The Conversation and the author for providing the article.

Note 2: Self-incompatibility: a mechanism by which plants distinguish between their own pollen and that of other individuals, and cross only with pollen from other individuals, thereby avoiding selfing and maintaining genetic diversity within the species.

Note 3: Selective breeding: a breeding method in which individuals or populations with desirable traits are selected and repeatedly selected over generations to improve traits.

Note 4: COP28: “COP” stands for the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, where national representatives meet to discuss GHG emissions targets and climate action. “28” denotes the 28th session. It was held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from November 30 to December 13, 2023. A central focus was the first implementation of the Global Stocktake (GST)—an assessment of global progress toward the goals of the Paris Agreement adopted at COP21 in 2015.

Note 5: This article is a translation of “Food prices will climb everywhere as temperatures rise due to climate change – new research,” by Jessica Boxall (Jessica Boxall) and Michael Head (Michael Head) at The Conversation, a partner organization of “Covering Climate Now” (Covering Climate Now), of which GNV is also a partner. We thank The Conversation and the authors for providing the article.

Note 6: This article is a translation of “Climate change: alarming Africa-wide report predicts 30% drop in crop revenue, 50 million without water,” by Philip Kofi Adom (Philip Kofi Adom) at The Conversation, a partner organization of “Covering Climate Now” (Covering Climate Now), of which GNV is also a partner. We thank The Conversation and the author for providing the article.

Writers: Chris Wyver, Jessica Boxall, Michael Head, Philip Kofi Adom

Translation: Ikumu Nakamura