Botswana has long been known as a country with an entrenched democracy, consistently ranking among the top in Africa on indicators of democracy and governance. It has also maintained steady economic growth centered on exports of diamonds, the country’s principal resource.
In recent years, however, clouds have gathered over that democracy, and its rankings on such indicators have fallen. What exactly is happening in Botswana? This article focuses on Botswana’s democratic system and stable economic growth, and also considers the country’s outlook.
Children celebrating the 50th anniversary of Botswana’s independence (Photo: Mahyar Sheykhi / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY-SA 4.0 DEED])
目次
History of Botswana
Botswana is located in southern Africa, with a population of about 2.63 million and an area of 567,000 square kilometers. It is surrounded by Zambia, Namibia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa, and is a landlocked country made up of the Kalahari Desert and plains.
The history of Botswana is long. From 100,000 years ago, peoples known as the San and Khoi came to what is now Botswana and began lives centered on hunting. Later, about 1,000 years ago, along with the expansion of the Kingdom of Zimbabwe (Note 1), many Tswana people, who were pastoralists and farmers, migrated here. In the early 1800s, a great migration took place from South Africa, after which the Tswana came to make up much of Botswana’s population. In the territory of Botswana at that time, roughly 8 groups each held and governed their own lands.
Subsequently, people known as Boers, who had advanced from the Netherlands to what is now South Africa, settled in the region, and the later entry of the British government and companies changed the situation. At the time, within the territory of present-day South Africa there were conflicts between many kingdoms and empires and Boer and British forces seeking to expand their dominion. That extended to what is now Botswana, bringing the Tswana into conflict with the Boers. Finding it difficult to sustain this confrontation with the Boers, of the 8 groups, the chiefs of 3 main groups sought protection from Britain. As a result, in March 1885 the Bechuanaland Protectorate, including present-day Botswana and part of South Africa, was established, and thereafter Botswana was a British protectorate.
However, with regard to rule the British authorities adopted indirect rule, allowing the originally separate 8 groups a certain degree of autonomy rather than governing local people directly. From the 1920s onward, the authorities refined the form of autonomy in the protectorate. In 1951 they established the Joint Advisory Council (JAC), which deliberated on bills in the protectorate. Furthermore, in 1961 they established the Legislative Council (LEGCO). This was the first body within the protectorate to have legislative powers, and it drafted and promulgated the basic laws required for independence.
In the 1960s, the movement for Bechuanaland’s independence accelerated. At its center was Seretse Khama, grandson of Khama 3, king of the influential Tswana group the Bangwato and one of the 3 kings who negotiated with Britain when the protectorate was established. He had studied law in Britain and South Africa, and after returning home he founded the Bechuanaland Democratic Party in 1962, later the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP). In contrast to the Bechuanaland People’s Party, later the Botswana People’s Party (BPP), which had already been formed in 1961 and advocated radical policies such as the expulsion of white settlers, he pursued moderate policies and gained popular support. In 1963 Britain announced a plan for Bechuanaland’s independence, and in the elections 2 years later, in 1965, the BDP won 80 percent of the vote and took power. A constitution was enacted the same year, and finally in 1966 Bechuanaland changed its name to Botswana and achieved independence from Britain.
Stable growth and the establishment of democracy
After independence, Seretse Khama became the first president, but immediately after independence Botswana was in a state where the country had only 12 kilometers of paved roads and only a small number of people completed secondary school.
What greatly influenced Botswana’s growth, however, was the discovery the year after independence, in 1967, of a rough diamond mine. After this discovery, Botswana succeeded in securing revenue and earning foreign exchange through stable extraction and export of rough diamonds.
A view of a Botswana mine (Photo: Cretep / Wikimedia Commons [public domain])
Then, thanks to exports of rough diamonds, Botswana achieved remarkable development. From 1975 to 1995, over 20 years, Botswana’s real economic growth averaged 9.2% per year, as recorded. In addition, GDP per capita has continued to rise; compared with neighboring Zimbabwe, in 1990 Botswana’s was about 3 times, but by 2020 the gap was about 8 times and had expanded.
Moreover, since independence Botswana has established a democratic system. From the outset it adopted a winner-takes-all electoral system in which the party that wins a majority of votes takes all power. This system has drawn criticism because it has kept the BDP in power continuously, but since independence elections have been held and governance carried out in accordance with the constitution.
Building on that democratic political system and revenue from diamond exports, Seretse Khama served 3 terms as president until his death in 1980, implementing policies such as developing domestic infrastructure and educational facilities and making compulsory education free.
Furthermore, after Khama’s death, power was handed over through democratic processes: from 1980 to 1998 Quett Masire served as president, and from 1998 to 2008 Festus Mogae served as president. Then, upon leaving office in 2008, Mogae received the Mo Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African Leadership award. This prize is given to African leaders who have handed over power to a successor democratically and are judged to have contributed to their country’s development; past recipients include former South African president Nelson Mandela.
In this way, since independence Botswana has maintained democracy while achieving significant economic growth centered on diamond exports.
Botswana’s parliament (Photo: Shosholoza / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY-SA 3.0 DEED])
Who do the diamond revenues belong to?
Diamonds have greatly contributed to Botswana’s development, but there is debate over diamonds and the revenues from their trade. Since the discovery of diamond mines in 1967, the government of Botswana has jointly established the Debswana joint venture with De Beers, a company founded in South Africa and headquartered in the United Kingdom, and exports diamonds through that company. Botswana’s diamonds are among the world’s top in output, accounting for about 25% of global diamond production by value. For Botswana, of course, these diamond revenues are immense, making up a vast share—40% of national GDP, 33% of government revenue, and 70–80% of foreign exchange earnings—truly underpinning the economy.De Beers likewise depends heavily on Botswana’s diamonds: of the rough diamonds it trades, 70% are sourced from the country.
However, the issue here is the arrangement between the Botswana government and De Beers regarding how to divide diamond proceeds. Under a 2011 agreement, the government’s share of rough diamonds produced was only 10%, with the remaining 90% going to De Beers.This arrangement was amended in 2020, and the government’s share was expanded to 25%.
In addition, under this arrangement the Botswana government can trade only in rough diamonds and is not allowed to manufacture or sell finished diamond jewelry, a situation that persists.Because of this rule, the government cannot add value to rough diamonds, effectively foregoing profits it could earn if it were able to cut, polish, and set them. That said, the government does hold 15% of De Beers’ shares, meaning it benefits from De Beers’ overall profits—an important fact as well.
A De Beers diamond retail store (Photo: S MAISOUE / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY-SA 4.0 DEED])
Such a long-running standoff between the Botswana government and De Beers over the country’s diamond profits ultimately reached a settlement in 2023. With the previous agreement set to expire in 2021, President Mokgweetsi Masisi undertook negotiations. In 2021, he said in connection with these talks, “We must avoid becoming slaves,” and, even hinting at ending the relationship with De Beers, took a tough stance aimed at increasing Botswana’s share. Furthermore, a tailwind for the negotiations came from the 2022 Russia–Ukraine war. Before the war, Russia was the world’s largest diamond producer, but after the invasion of Ukraine the West stopped importing Russian diamonds as part of economic sanctions. As a result, Botswana, the world’s 2nd-largest producer after Russia, effectively became the world’s largest diamond exporter, significantly raising the value of its diamonds.
The negotiations originally began in 2018 and were scheduled to conclude in 2021, but, partly due to COVID-19, continued until 2023. Ultimately, thanks to Masisi’s hard line and the factors noted above, the 2023 agreement provided for the government’s share of rough diamonds to increase gradually, reaching 50% by 2033, an increase.
However, cutting and polishing rough diamonds and selling finished products still remain off limits, and reforms are awaited on that front as well.
A dimming of democracy
While Botswana has increased its wealth and grown economically on the back of rough diamonds, clouds appear to be gathering over the democracy it has built over many years. The turning point was Ian Khama, who became president in 2008, succeeding Mogae. The son of the country’s first president, Seretse Khama, questions about Botswana’s democracy began to arise under his administration. One reason cited is the existence of an intelligence unit he created after taking office called the Directorate of Intelligence and Security Services (DISS). Working with the pre-existing Directorate on Corruption and Economic Crime (DCEC), this unit began thoroughly monitoring efforts within Botswana to expose corruption by those in power. As a result, there have been reports that journalists investigating government corruption were arrested or detained and that press freedom was curtailed.
Ian Khama (Photo: GovernmentZA / Flickr [CC BY-ND 2.0 DEED])
After Khama, the person who became president in 2019 is the current president, Mokgweetsi Masisi. Noteworthy about him is his confrontation with his predecessor, Khama. As Masisi took office, Khama left the ruling BDP. Thereafter, President Masisi accused Khama of corruption. Khama maintained his innocence in the case, and later investigations made clear that he was not guilty. In addition, an arrest warrant has been issued for Khama on suspicion of illegal possession of firearms.
Khama, for his part, criticizes Masisi’s administration and argues that democracy is being undermined. He has joined forces with the opposition Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) to challenge the ruling BDP, showing a stance of confronting the current government head-on to wrest power from the BDP.
Furthermore, allegations have emerged that Masisi committed irregularities in the 2019 elections. There have been reports that he and the BDP bribed and bought off electoral commission officials to secure victory, enabled double voting by voters, and even used intelligence agents to coordinate the fraud.
As such, the intensity of the confrontation between the two is clear, but what should be considered problematic here is Masisi’s series of actions. Whether Khama is guilty or not is unknown, but a sitting president bringing various charges against and casting suspicion on a former president who remains active in national politics can be seen as suppressing a politician who may pose a threat to his own power.
Mokgweetsi Masisi (Photo: UNCTAD/ Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0 DEED])
These effects are also visible in various indicators. In the democracy index published annually by the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) research program, Botswana’s scores have declined since 2020, after Masisi took office. Looking at the country rankings, data prior to 2019 put Botswana around 50th, but data from 2020 onward show it languishing in the 60s, and in the latest 2022 data its position is 69th.
The impact is also evident in how Batswana themselves feel. Regular surveys ask them about their satisfaction with democracy. In 2008 and 2018, when asked whether they were satisfied with the state of democracy in the country, the share answering “satisfied” was 83% in 2008, but a similar survey in 2018 found it had fallen to 59%, a drop of 24 percentage points, according to results.
These indicators suggest that the effects of recent allegations of misconduct by the administration and political confrontation are showing up not only in external assessments but also in the perceptions of the country’s own citizens.
Other challenges
The challenges Botswana currently faces are not limited to issues of democracy. First, there is domestic economic inequality. Although Botswana has gained great wealth from the trade in rough diamonds, that wealth has not been well distributed across society. Many people live in poverty: as of 2015, about 67% of the population lived below the ethical poverty line (Note 2). Unemployment is also high: a World Bank survey in 2019 put it at 18.2%. Moreover, Botswana records a very high value on the Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, ranking 7th in the world (Note 3). Thus, income distribution is a major problem.
Second is economic dependence on diamonds. As noted, rough diamonds account for most of Botswana’s exports and bring in vast revenues, leaving the economy literally unable to function without diamonds, a situation. However, Botswana’s diamond production is now at its peak, and some experts point out that reserves could be exhausted by 2030, making it a major challenge to reduce this dependence.
Furthermore, because the country has long relied on mineral revenues from rough diamonds, Botswana’s manufacturing sector has hardly developed. As for the primary sector, cattle ranching has developed, but other areas have seen little development, partly due to factors such as climate and land conditions.
Cattle grazing in Botswana (Photo: Franklin Pi / Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0 DEED]）
Finally, the 3rd challenge is the relationship between the Tswana and the San. The San are an indigenous people who have lived in Botswana’s territory for millennia and have led traditional lives centered on hunting. However, in the 1960s, a government dominated by Tswana designated their land a nature reserve, and in the late 1990s many San were forcibly relocated outside the reserve, threatening their way of life. The government also prohibited the San from entering the reserve and from hunting within it.
Many San strongly opposed this series of government actions, and the dispute ultimately went to court. The San won the case, but the government has ignored the ruling, and the San have still not been able to return to the reserve, their traditional lands. A major factor behind the government’s actions is thought to be the presence of diamond mines within the reserve, and there remains no prospect of the San resuming their traditional way of life.
As above, Botswana faces a tangle of issues beyond just those related to rough diamonds.
Botswana’s outlook
Having traced Botswana’s democratic development and recent concerns about its democracy, what is the country’s outlook? The first thing to watch is the outcome of the national elections scheduled for 2024. Whether the BDP retains power or opposition parties such as the BPF take office and the first change of government since independence occurs, either outcome should be welcomed if it is the result of a legitimate election conducted through a democratic process with freedom for political and media activity guaranteed.
However, regardless of who wins, the past actions of both Khama and Masisi cast doubt on the maintenance of the democratic system Botswana has built, and public sentiment suggests it is cause for concern. Precisely because this is a country that has grown stably and developed its democracy thus far, a revival—or further development—of that democracy is to be hoped for.
Note 1 The Kingdom of Zimbabwe was a state that existed from the 1200s to the 1400s. Its capital was at the city of Great Zimbabwe in what is now southeastern Zimbabwe; it prospered through trade in gold and ivory, and at its peak stone buildings—traditional for the kingdom—lined the capital. In the 15th century the kingdom declined, and today the capital is in ruins.
Note 2: GNV adopts the ethical (moral) poverty line (1 day at US$7.4) rather than the World Bank’s extreme poverty line as of 2021 (1 day at US$1.9). For details, see the GNV article “How should we interpret the world’s poverty situation?”.
Note 3: The Gini coefficient is an indicator published by the World Bank that shows income inequality in a society. The coefficient ranges from 0 to 100%, where 0% is complete equality and 100% is complete inequality. Botswana’s Gini coefficient is 53.3% in the latest 2015 data. This value is very high by global standards. However, earlier data sometimes exceeded 60%, suggesting a slight improving trend.
Writer: Yudai Sekiguchi
Graphics: Ayaka Takeuchi
0 Comments