Conflict, human rights abuses, poverty, and economic crisis. These are all problems currently occurring in Afghanistan. These issues have grown more severe since the Taliban returned to power, but they are not solely the Taliban’s doing. The deterioration has also been driven by the influence of other countries, notably the United States. Looking back, Afghanistan has been drawn into other nations’ wars and interventions and has been strongly affected by them. In the 19th century it became the stage for the rivalry between Britain and Russia. By the end of the 20th century there was the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan, and after entering the 21st century it came under U.S. military intervention—Afghanistan has been buffeted by great powers.

The problems Afghanistan faces stem from a variety of domestic and international factors, but this article explores the current situation from the perspectives of humanitarian crises, including the food emergency, and human rights abuses against women.

A war-ravaged town and a man (Photo: Carpetblogger/Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0]）

History of Afghanistan

I would like to briefly review Afghanistan’s history as a premise here. Before the modern era, the region corresponding to present-day Afghanistan was under the rule and influence of various Asian states, including the Achaemenid and Sasanian Empires and the Mongol Empire. Entering the imperialist 19th century, it was drawn into Europe’s scramble for colonies. As Russia sought to expand its control southward, it invaded the area of today’s Afghanistan. This brought it into conflict with Britain, which at the time held colonies mainly in South Asia and was likewise expanding its territory northward, and the two entered into the rivalry known as the Great Game. As a result, from 1880 Afghanistan was placed under British control.

After gaining independence in 1919, Afghanistan’s situation stabilized temporarily. Modernization policies were advanced by the new king, Zahir Shah, and with support from the allied Soviet Union, the country was slowly moving toward stability. However, there were forces that opposed this, and from around 1978, conservative Muslim groups inside the country were mounting guerrilla attacks against the Afghan government of the time. As the unrest spread and Afghanistan became unstable, with coups occurring, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979. In response, Islamist armed groups drawn from inside and outside the country, backed by states such as Saudi Arabia and the United States, fought back, pulling the conflict into the broader East–West Cold War.

The occupation that lasted until 1989 dealt a heavy blow to Afghanistan. Even after the Soviet withdrawal, armed clashes continued to break out across the country. Amid this devastation, the Taliban was formed in an attempt to restore stability under its own rule. Originally formed by students of theology, the group received support from Pakistan, seized city after city in Afghanistan, and by 1996 had captured the capital, Kabul. Under Taliban rule, they imposed various everyday rules based on strict Islamic law. In particular, they pursued policies that suppressed human rights, such as restricting women’s employment and education. At the same time, forces including members of the former regime who had been pushed into the north by the Taliban formed an armed group known as the Northern Alliance in northern Afghanistan.

However, the Taliban regime did not last long. After the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States in 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan to eliminate al‑Qaeda, the group held responsible, and also began attacking the Taliban for harboring al‑Qaeda. Under attacks by a multinational force centered on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the Taliban regime collapsed in December 2001. The Northern Alliance, which had been opposing the Taliban, regained power with support from the multinational force and transitioned to a new government under U.S. oversight.

With the collapse of the Taliban regime, many of the previous human-rights‑suppressing policies were lifted, even as the country remained dependent on the U.S. troops stationed there. At the same time, the Taliban gradually regained strength in Afghanistan. One factor was that corruption in the government forces made infiltration from outside easy, which has been cited. Another was that the withdrawal of NATO forces in 2014 created a vacuum in the country. In addition, because the government during this period had been installed by an external power—the United States—corruption was rampant, public discontent grew, and support for the Taliban increased. In February 2020, the Taliban reached an agreement with the United States, under which the U.S. would withdraw its forces on the condition that the Taliban would no longer engage in terrorism. Based on that agreement, in August 2021 U.S. forces fully withdrew; as the Afghan military collapsed in short order, the Taliban seized Kabul and took power that same month.

Taliban fighters in Kabul (Photo: Callum Darragh / Wikimedia Commons [CC0 1.0]）

Governance under the new Taliban regime

Having returned to power in 2021, what kind of organization is the Taliban, and what relationships does it have with neighboring countries? The Taliban divides the areas it controls in Afghanistan into a total of 34 regions and governs by appointing an emir for each. In the central government, it has also established committees for 18 sectors, such as education and the military, appointing leaders to each, forming a ministry‑like structure to run the state. Policy-wise, the influence of the movement’s base among the Pashtuns is significant. Pashtuns comprise about 40% of Afghanistan’s population, and Taliban policies are influenced by their ideas and demands.

Next, let’s look at the Taliban’s relations with various countries. Starting with neighboring states: Pakistan has traditionally had close ties with the Taliban and has provided financial assistance. Other nearby countries—Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan—have also maintained diplomatic relations, as Afghanistan is an important trading partner. India, by contrast, whose relations with Afghanistan are affected by its rivalry with Pakistan, cut ties immediately after the Taliban came to power, but given its strong links with the previous government, it is now moving to reassess that relationship.

Turning to Europe, the European Union (EU) has imposed economic sanctions in response to the Taliban’s discriminatory policies against women. Trade restrictions arising from the sanctions have left the domestic economy severely damaged. Particularly noteworthy is the relationship with the United States. In August 2021, U.S. President Joe Biden froze roughly 7 billion U.S. dollars in assets of Afghanistan’s central bank held in American banks. However, when the freeze was lifted in August 2022, the U.S. announced it would unilaterally split and use those assets. Half would go to support families of victims of the September 11 attacks, and the other half to “humanitarian assistance” for Afghanistan. But because the latter would be provided without going through the Taliban government, the funds have effectively remained seized by the United States and have not reached the Afghan people. This, in turn, has contributed to Afghanistan’s worsening humanitarian crisis.

A Taliban flag posted at the U.S. Embassy (Photo: AhmadElhan / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY-SA 4.0]）

The United Nations has also generally taken a tough stance toward the Taliban regime. The UN Security Council has imposed sanctions on individuals and entities associated with the Taliban and decided in December 2022 to extend them. At the same time, following the Taliban’s return to power, it authorized humanitarian aid to Afghanistan as an exception.

A severe humanitarian crisis

Given the above history, Afghanistan is once again under Taliban rule, and people’s lives are now in crisis. The first issue is food shortages. As of August 2022, 90% of the population was reportedly unable to obtain sufficient food. Of these, more than 6 million people were said to be on the brink of severe hunger. More recent data predict that from April–October 2023, as many as 15.3 million people will face food insecurity, showing the situation remains dire. The economy is also in crisis; since the Taliban’s return to power, an estimated 500,000 people in Afghanistan have lost their jobs.

What lies behind this situation? One factor is poor harvests caused by natural disasters. Afghanistan has been suffering from drought, which as of December 2021 affected about 80% of its territory. As of August 2023 the situation had not improved at all. In 2022, floods affected one‑third of the country, damaging crops and essential infrastructure.

Drought conditions in Afghanistan (Photo: UNHCR/ACNUR Américas / Flickr [CC BY-NC-SA 2.0]）

Another major factor is the lack of sufficient foreign support. Since the Taliban took power in 2021, many high‑income countries, including in the West, have halted economic aid to the government. Donor contributions to the World Food Programme (WFP) have also declined since the Taliban’s return, forcing cuts in assistance. This is another reason many people have faced economic hardship since the Taliban’s comeback.

A final factor is that Afghanistan’s central bank is not functioning adequately. Behind this is U.S. government policy. As noted above, the United States has kept hold of funds that should have belonged to Afghanistan, leaving them in U.S. hands. As a result, Afghanistan has been unable to pursue policies to stabilize the economy due to a lack of funds. In addition, a shortage of banknotes triggered inflation, making it impossible to pay workers adequately and leaving cities crowded with people in distress. This single U.S. policy has burdened the lives of many Afghans.

Additionally, the sharp decline in poppy production—once a major Afghan industry because it is the raw material for narcotics—has also worsened the economic situation. Poppies are easy to cultivate even on arid land, and they once accounted for 9–14% of Afghanistan’s GDP, making them an important sector. However, since 2022, Taliban policy has reduced poppy output by more than 90%. Opium is primarily an export commodity, and because it affects trade with neighboring countries, this has cooled the economy not only for poppy farmers but for Afghanistan as a whole.

Poppies cultivated in Afghanistan (Photo: United Nations Photo / Frickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 ]）

In addition, the Taliban’s human rights abuses have themselves worsened the domestic situation. Restrictions on women’s employment have reduced household incomes and harmed the economy. After the Taliban’s return, it was estimated that the economic loss from restricting women’s employment could reach 1 billion U.S. dollars. The next section looks at the Taliban’s discriminatory policies against women, which are having such negative economic effects.

Human rights violations against women

What are the human rights–violating policies of the Taliban that have harmed the country’s economy and foreign relations? Immediately after returning to power, the Taliban again set course toward restricting various rights of women. In January 2022 it declared a ban on girls advancing to secondary education. From December 2022, women were banned from entering universities. Beginning in 2023, women have been barred from all education beyond six years of primary school, and as of August 2023 those restrictions remain in place. In roughly a year since the Taliban’s return, Afghanistan has reverted to a country where women cannot even receive an education.

Afghan schoolgirls taking classes outdoors (Photo: United Nations Photo / Frickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 ]）

Women’s rights are also being severely restricted beyond education. In daily life, women are forced to keep their faces covered with cloth at all times, and the government has banned travel of more than 75km without a male escort. Freedom to choose an occupation has also disappeared. Women are restricted from working in professional roles such as doctors and journalists and are limited to a few jobs such as domestic work and farming. Women are also not allowed to work for nonprofit organizations (NPOs), and the resulting labor shortages in NPOs have delayed aid operations, further worsening food shortages. In this way, as many women have lost their jobs due to Taliban policies, many households are unable to earn sufficient income, further accelerating food insecurity and poverty.

Shifting dynamics and prospects ahead

We have so far reviewed Afghanistan’s social, political, and diplomatic situation. The country faces crises on many fronts, rooted not only in the Taliban but also in a history of military interventions and interference by great powers. And in recent years there have been several changes in the Taliban’s relations with foreign countries. One involves the United States: in August 2023, the U.S. and the Taliban held talks in Qatar on easing sanctions. This could improve relations with Western countries and offer the possibility of an end to the humanitarian crisis. Another new actor is China. In February 2023, it was reported that China plans to invest in oil extraction in Afghanistan, suggesting China could also become a new actor influencing the situation.

Signing ceremony for the agreement reached between the United States and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, in 2020（Photo: U.S. Department of State / Frickr [United States Government work]）

While international relations are changing day by day, the humanitarian crisis remains severe. Related to food shortages, it has been reported recently that swarms of locusts have erupted and are destroying crops. Locusts devour a wide range of crops, including wheat and legumes, dealing a major blow to farmers’ livelihoods and likely further accelerating food shortages.

There have also been reports of the Taliban ordering the closure of women’s beauty salons, saying they violate Islamic teachings. This restriction could further narrow women’s occupational choices and adversely affect employment and the broader economy.

Furthermore, in January 2023 there were also reports of rifts emerging among Taliban leaders, raising fears of a split in the organization. The trigger was a public statement by Sirajuddin Haqqani, one of the regime’s power brokers, that could be taken as criticism of the person regarded as the Taliban’s supreme leader. The instability within the regime could further aggravate the problems Afghanistan currently faces.

It remains to be seen how these developments will change Afghanistan; the situation bears close watching.

Writer: Takumi Kuriyama

Graphics: Mayu Nakata

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