In June 2023, election campaigning began in Mexico for the 2024 presidential election began. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known by his initials, AMLO), who has served since 2018, has maintained about 60% approval since taking office, but he cannot run for reelection in 2024. This is because Mexico’s constitution prohibits presidential reelection.
Under President AMLO’s administration, which has been described as populist (※1), reforms have been carried out, having a major impact both domestically and internationally. This article takes a closer look at the changes President AMLO has brought to Mexico.
President AMLO delivering a speech (Photo: Eneas De Troya / Flickr [CC BY 2.0])
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Changes in Mexico’s political regime
First, let’s trace the political changes in Mexico. In what is now Mexico, civilizations such as the Maya and Aztec once flourished. From the 16th century onward, the region was placed under Spanish colonial rule and Christianity was propagated. After a ten-year independence movement beginning with an armed uprising in 1810, Mexico became independent in 1821.
In the Mexican-American War from 1846 to 1848, Mexico was defeated by the United States and lost about half of its territory, including what is now Texas and California. During the war, a revolution against the dictatorship of President Santa Anna began in 1854. This revolution, known as La Reforma, developed into a conflict between a faction advocating liberal reforms such as separation of church and state and the abolition of privileges, and conservatives centered on church forces, continuing until the reformists won in 1861.
After the revolution ended, a long dictatorship under President Porfirio Díaz continued from 1876. Dissatisfaction with land exploitation and government corruption led to the Mexican Revolution in 1910, sparked by peasant forces rallied by Francisco Madero, and Díaz’s regime was overthrown in 1911.
From 1920, when the revolutionary turmoil subsided, the centrist Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) held power for 71 years. The PRI had the characteristic of coordinating the interests of factions within the party in advance before entering presidential elections, preventing a proliferation of candidates and thereby maintaining long-term rule. In 2000, the centrist-right National Action Party (PAN), which had close ties to the Catholic Church and the business community, took power and held it for 12 years. However, in 2012 the PRI regained power. President AMLO also ran in the 2006 and 2012 elections but narrowly lost and the results were suspected of fraud.
In the 2018 presidential election, amid widespread corruption by the PRI and PAN and other established forces that secured a privileged position for economic elites, AMLO of the left-wing National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) ran from the opposition alliance “Let’s Make History Together,” which rejected the status quo. He advocated a “Fourth Transformation (※2)” following Independence and the Mexican Revolution, appealing for politics that prioritize the general public. Amid rampant corruption and violent conflict, AMLO declared policies such as reducing the salaries of top officials including himself, doubling real wages during his term, and maintaining public security through a newly established National Guard. These people-focused pledges garnered broad support, and he won with about 53% of the vote.
President AMLO continued to enjoy public support after taking office; as of June 2023, four years into his term, his approval rating stood at 68%. During his term, Mexico achieved economic growth, and the value of its currency, the peso, against the U.S. dollar has appreciated. In addition, unemployment has fallen and the minimum wage has risen by 20%.
One reason for AMLO’s broad support is his sustained, close communication with the public. Since taking office, he has broadcast press conferences on weekdays for two to three hours. In addition to taking questions from reporters, he also answers frankly on the spot about topics he wants to emphasize.
Changes are also visible in relations with other countries. The relationship between Latin American countries and the United States, which has long maintained a “hegemonic position,” has also shifted during his term. Relations with foreign companies have changed as well, and the way foreign capital is involved in the extraction of Mexico’s mineral resources is under reconsideration. Below are some specific policies of the AMLO administration.
Energy issues and natural resources
In resource-rich Mexico, with oil and lithium among others, policies on resources affect the economy. Under AMLO’s administration, the handling of Mexico’s natural resources has changed. One such change is the nationalization of natural resources. Although Mexico has many natural resources such as oil, silver, and lithium, historically most extraction has been carried out by foreign companies, and much of the profit has not been returned domestically.
The 1917 Mexican constitution allowed government expropriation of natural resources such as oil, but at the time this provision could not be implemented due to resistance from foreign oil companies. Lázaro Cárdenas, who served as president from 1934 to 1940, exercised this provision and nationalized Mexico’s oil resources, which had been extracted by the United States and the United Kingdom, among others. Subsequent presidents gradually liberalized the energy sector, and as a result Mexico, despite its abundant fossil fuel reserves, imported energy from countries such as the United States. In 2013, the administration of then-President Peña Nieto amended the constitution to allow private investment in energy, prompting foreign companies to enter Mexico in pursuit of natural resources.
President AMLO has praised oil nationalization in his speeches and strengthened the position of state-owned enterprises in the oil and electricity sectors. In October 2021, he also pledged to nationalize lithium “for the benefit of the Mexican people.”
Mexico may have about 1.7 million tons of lithium, making it one of the most important natural resources. Lithium, also known as “white gold” or “the new oil,” is used in batteries for electronic devices and electric vehicles (※3). With the spread of computers, smartphones, hybrids, and electric vehicles, global demand is rising, and it is estimated that by 2030 demand for lithium batteries will be more than five times the 2023 level.
Lithium-ion battery (Photo: VARTA / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY-SA 4.0])
In addition to nationalizing lithium deposits, President AMLO is also planning to establish battery production plants. By setting up battery factories, the aim appears to be to capture for Mexico the profits from the lithium sector, including the added value generated in turning raw materials into finished products.
There is also significant opposition to nationalizing lithium. Critics argue that nationalization is slowing Mexico’s long-term economic growth. Since the 2013 constitutional reform, domestic and foreign private capital has been invested in facilities related to the lithium industry, with billions of U.S. dollars flowing in from global companies. They contend that without using the new technologies and methods of these private companies, Mexico will not be able to make full use of its lithium or translate the expected increase in demand into economic development.
Armed conflict in Mexico
President AMLO is also tackling the long-standing armed struggles and public security problems Mexico faces. The background of this issue is closely related to drugs flowing into the United States. Cocaine (※4), which has high demand in the U.S., is produced in South American countries such as Bolivia, Colombia, and Peru, and smuggled into the U.S. by Mexican drug criminal organizations. The U.S.-Mexico border stretches 3,141 km, and with hundreds of millions of crossings annually, it is difficult to fully prevent drug smuggling. Consequently, since the 1980s many criminal organizations have developed, using Mexico as a transit point to smuggle drugs into the United States.
In Mexico, conflicts continue both among criminal organizations over smuggling routes and between the government enforcing the law and these organizations, resulting in many victims domestically. In 2006, then-President Felipe Calderón began military responses by framing the situation not as “crime” but as “war,” and the post-2006 situation is known as the “war on drugs” (see here for details). As of 2022, it is said that a cumulative total of about 300,000 people have lost their lives in this conflict.
Regarding the ongoing armed conflict, AMLO in the past as a politician opposed military intervention by the government and the armed forces, advocating approaches to the underlying causes of the conflict. However, in the 2018 presidential election he pledged to establish a new unit to maintain public security, and immediately after taking office established the National Guard. Command of the National Guard lies with Mexico’s armed forces, effectively strengthening military functions.
Despite these public security policies, including military approaches, the armed conflict has not subsided. During AMLO’s term more than 30,000 homicides occur each year, and the homicide rate remains stubbornly high. While the president espouses a non-confrontational approach, in practice military measures have been taken and the situation has not improved, leading to calls for policies that take into account the realities of organized crime in Mexico.
Relations with the United States
President AMLO’s policies have changed the relationship between Mexico and the United States. Issues such as drug trafficking across Mexico and armed conflict within Mexico influence the neighboring United States as well. In the U.S., drugs such as fentanyl (※5) and cocaine are prevalent, and in 2021 there were about 71,000 fentanyl addicts. As the number of addicts increases, the U.S. government is pressing Mexico to act.
Not only is drug trafficking from Mexico to the U.S. a problem, but arms smuggling from the U.S. to Mexico is also an issue. About 500,000 U.S.-made guns flow into Mexico each year and end up in the hands of criminal organizations. Mexico strictly restricts gun ownership, and to purchase a gun legally one must undergo a background check. However, large quantities of guns are smuggled from the U.S., significantly affecting Mexico’s public security. While the U.S. demands countermeasures from Mexico against drug smuggling, it is criticized for taking little action against arms smuggling into Mexico.
Migration and refugee flows from South American countries toward North America at the U.S.-Mexico border are also a problem. Because the border is long and it is difficult to control the movement of people, in 2022 more than 200,000 migrants and refugees per month were entering the U.S. across the border. AMLO has continued to criticize U.S. migration policy since before taking office and hinted during the 2018 election that he would not comply with enforcement the U.S. demanded.
After taking office, under pressure from then-President Donald Trump, Mexico carried out enforcement actions against migrants, but AMLO has argued for measures on the U.S. side, such as expanding opportunities for legal entry. Thus, the U.S. has sought one-sided cooperation from Mexico on bilateral issues. Under AMLO, Mexico has refused to cooperate exactly as instructed by the U.S., stating that “Mexico is not a colony of the United States.”
Regarding AMLO’s policies, a leaked secret document revealed that U.S. government officials expressed dissatisfaction, saying “President López Obrador’s 2023 federal budget prioritizes social spending and signature infrastructure projects over the investments needed to address bilateral issues with the United States, such as migration, security, and trade.” In other words, they view as problematic that spending follows Mexico’s domestic priorities rather than the priority order U.S. officials would prefer.
President AMLO and U.S. President Joe Biden in talks (Photo: USEmbassyME / Flickr [Public Domain Mark 1.0])
In 2023, in response to drug smuggling, right-wing Republican politicians in the U.S. even demanded a U.S. military incursion into Mexico. In response, AMLO condemned this, saying, “We will not permit any foreign government to intervene on our national territory, much less allow the intervention of its armed forces.”
AMLO is also working to change the relationship with the United States, which has wielded great influence over relations with Latin American countries. He aims not for U.S.-hegemonic regional integration, but for coordination across the entire continent. At the Summit of the Americas, a meeting of North, Central, and South American leaders held in Los Angeles in 2022, the U.S. sought to exclude Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua from participation, saying “we will not invite dictators,” due to continued confrontation with the U.S. In response, AMLO warned that Mexico would refuse to participate unless representatives of all Latin American countries were included.
He has called for creating an organization to replace the Organization of American States (OAS) that is “no one’s lackey.” The OAS is considered an organization created during the Cold War for the U.S. to maintain hegemony over the Americas, and because participants at the Summit of the Americas were effectively determined at U.S. discretion, AMLO warned against excluding countries. This warning forced a response from the U.S. government; it is said that the U.S. ambassador hurried to AMLO within hours of the statement to persuade him. Ultimately, out of 35 planned participant countries, eight, including Mexico, boycotted the summit.
The 2024 presidential election
As of 2023, President AMLO maintains about 60% approval domestically, but, as noted at the outset, cannot run again. As of this writing, in the 2024 presidential election a continuation of power by AMLO’s left-wing party, the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), is considered most likely. However, as we have seen, because AMLO’s administration has pursued radical reforms, there is significant opposition both at home and abroad.
One opposition force is the agriculture sector, including grain farmers. In May 2023, in response to falling international grain prices, they staged demonstrations demanding price guarantees for corn, wheat, and sorghum. Protest leader Baltazar Valdés estimated that commercial agricultural producers have influence equivalent to about 10 million votes, and said they could sway the outcome of the next presidential election.
In addition, because President AMLO has advocated policies that “put the poor first,” there is strong backlash from economic elites who have long held privileged positions in Mexican society.
President AMLO’s inauguration ceremony (Photo: Gobierno Danilo Medina / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0] )
There is also strong pushback from the United States. While it cannot directly interfere in domestic politics, as noted above, it appears to be attempting to exert pressure in various ways.
Whether MORENA can continue to win support in the face of opposition—from agricultural workers, economic elites opposed to radical reforms, and U.S. government officials dissatisfied with Mexico’s domestic policies—or whether there will be a change of administration will have a major impact on Mexico’s future.
※1 Populism refers to political ideas and activities that appeal to the masses by criticizing the established elite.
※2 The War of Independence is considered the First Transformation, La Reforma the Second, and the Mexican Revolution the Third; he advocates reforms following these as the Fourth Transformation.
※3 In a lithium-ion battery, lithium ions move between the positive and negative electrodes, making charging and discharging possible.
※4 Cocaine is a psychostimulant made from the leaves of the coca plant native to South America and is highly addictive.
※5 Fentanyl is a synthetic opioid analgesic and is the most potent narcotic used clinically.
Writer: Haruka Gonno
Graphic: Misaki Nakayama
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