In April 2021, Russia, which deploys troops in Moldova’s Transnistria region under the pretext of peacekeeping, conducted military exercises. In tandem with this move, neighboring Ukraine sent reinforcements to its border with Moldova and strengthened border security. Transnistria is a de facto breakaway region inside Moldova; although it is not under Moldova’s effective control, Russia has been increasing its influence there. What exactly is happening in the international relations swirling in Eastern Europe? This article focuses on Moldova.

Flag of Moldova (Photo: t_y_l / Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0])

Moldova and its neighbors

Moldova is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe bordering Romania and Ukraine, with a history of repeated invasions by various powers. The territory of present-day Moldova was ruled for a long period by the Ottoman Empire beginning in the 16th century. However, the Treaty of Jassy, concluded during the Russo-Turkish War in 1792, ceded to the Russian Empire the lands corresponding to today’s Transnistria. In 1812, after another Russo-Turkish War, the region known as Bessarabia—roughly corresponding to today’s Republic of Moldova—was incorporated into Russia. After the turmoil of the Russian Revolution during World War I, Romania occupied Bessarabia in 1918. In 1940, the USSR invaded and reoccupied Bessarabia, creating the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic. After the end of the Cold War, the USSR controlled all of present-day Moldova until Moldova declared independence as the Republic of Moldova in August 1991. Thus, Moldova has always been affected by its relations with surrounding countries, especially Romania and the Russian Empire/USSR.

Today, Moldova’s capital is Chișinău, and its population is about 4 million. In 2020, GDP per 1 person was USD 3,395, making it one of the poorest countries in Europe. Although a market economy was introduced in 1992 after independence from the USSR, rampant corruption has seriously impeded economic growth. After services, industry such as the production of agricultural machinery, and food processing—especially wine, as well as vegetable oils and sugar—are cited as the main industries in Moldova. In the sectoral composition of GDP, agriculture accounts for about 14%, and agricultural workers make up about 30 percent of the labor force, underscoring the country’s strong agricultural profile.

We now survey Moldova’s current positioning vis-à-vis its neighbors. As a former Soviet republic, relations with Russia are always a priority in Moldova. In Transnistria, where the Soviet system lasted comparatively long, Russian-speakers declared independence in 1990, and a Transnistria-specific governing apparatus has functioned with financial support from Russia. As discussed below, Russia’s presence looms large in Moldova’s resource and energy issues as well, and ties with the former suzerain are difficult to sever. Former President Igor Dodon visited Russia repeatedly and was known as a pro-Russian politician.

At the same time, relations with neighboring Romania have grown in importance. Moldova’s official language is Romanian, and the two countries have been close enough that the possibility of unification has been floated. While there is currently no active move toward unification, when the Romanian foreign minister visited Moldova’s current pro-European president, the two sides affirmed their cooperation, indicating closer ties. This is also related to Romania’s membership in the European Union (EU). Moldova is not an EU member, but it signed an Association Agreement in 2014 between the EU and non-EU countries. This serves to strengthen political, cultural, trade, and security ties, and Moldova’s current government is aiming ultimately for EU membership rather than stopping there. For Moldova, relations with Romania are highly important, as Romania, an EU member, can provide support in terms of supplies and logistics, and can also back Moldova’s own bid to join the EU.

Relations with the other neighbor, Ukraine, are also important. Ties between Moldova and Ukraine are currently good, and the three former Soviet states—Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia—have signed a memorandum confirming cooperation in diplomatic activities and consultations toward EU accession. However, because Russia—whose relations with Ukraine have deteriorated—wields influence in Transnistria, Moldova could be drawn into the confrontation between these 2 countries.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin meeting with Moldova’s former President Igor Dodon (Photo: Пресс-служба Президента Российской Федерации / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY 4.0])

Another notable point is that workers equivalent to 16.5% of Moldova’s labor force work abroad. Domestic industries cannot provide sufficient employment, and workers flow mainly to surrounding countries such as Russia and Romania. Remittances from them amount to 10% of GDP, supporting Moldova’s economy. In these ways, Moldova maintains close ties with its neighbors in many dimensions, and international relations exert a major influence on national trends.

Language and identity

For people living in Moldova—a land long subject to intervention by various countries—language and identity have also been shaped by historical relations with neighboring states.

Linguistics holds that Moldovan and Romanian are closely related, yet they have been treated as different and used politically. Romanian was historically widely used in western Moldova. However, when the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic was created during World War II, the script used for the language was changed from the Latin alphabet used for Romanian to the Cyrillic alphabet used for Russian. While the spoken language did not in practice change, the Soviet Union sought to detach Moldova from Romania and assimilate it into the USSR by changing the script used by Moldovans and by changing the official designation from “Romanian” to “Moldovan.” In 1989, near the end of Soviet rule, a Language Law kept the official designation as “Moldovan,” but restored the Latin script used for Romanian. After the Soviet collapse, Moldova’s 1991 Declaration of Independence designated Romanian as the official language. In 2013, the Constitutional Court of Moldova formally stated that the language in the Declaration of Independence takes precedence, so Romanian is recognized as Moldova’s official language to this day.

Today, Romanian is the language of instruction in Moldovan schools, and 75.8% of Moldovans speak Romanian as their mother tongue. The number of Moldovans obtaining Romanian citizenship is rising, and by the end of 2021 it was said to reach 1/3 of the total population. A background factor is that Moldovan passports still do not allow visa-free travel to Europe. By obtaining Romanian nationality and a Romanian passport—Romania being an EU member—Moldovans can access the Schengen area as EU citizens. While multiple citizenships are increasing, Moldovans are using them primarily for practical convenience. Many other languages are used domestically, including Russian and Ukrainian, as well as Gagauz in the autonomous region of Gagauzia. This complex relationship between language and identity significantly influences the Transnistria issue discussed next.

People selling goods at a market in Moldova (Photo: International Labour Organization ILO / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0])

The Transnistria issue

The Transnistria region is a de facto breakaway area located between the Dniester River, which flows through eastern Moldova, and Ukraine. In Bessarabia, which had been occupied by Romania, Romanian was mainly used, but in Transnistria—long ruled by the Russian Empire—Russian was the primary language despite being inside Moldova. In 1989, near the end of Soviet rule, Moldovan (i.e., Romanian) was made the official language across Moldova, and a flag and anthem modeled on Romania’s were adopted. Many Russian-speakers who feared Moldovan-Romanian unification opposed this, and in September 1990 separatists declared independence from Moldova and established an independent government as the “Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic” (Note 1). In March 1992, a military conflict broke out between Transnistria and Moldova after an armed attack by Moldovan forces. Arms and volunteers were supplied mainly by Romania to Moldova, and by Russia and Ukraine to Transnistria. The conflict caused over 1,000 deaths and more than 1,500 wounded. Faced with Russia’s stance that it would not hesitate to engage in further combat, including intervention by Russian troops, Moldova feared Russia’s overwhelming military power; the presidents of Russia and Moldova signed a ceasefire, ending the fighting in July 1992. Thereafter, a joint peacekeeping force of Russia, Moldova, and Transnistria was organized.

After the ceasefire, continuous talks were held under the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and in the early 2000s, reconciliation in the form of a federalization of Moldova and Transnistria was attempted. However, Russia opposed this and proposed a plan to make Transnistria an autonomous region within Moldova while allowing permanent stationing of Russian troops. The Moldovan government rejected the plan, and talks collapsed. In 2006, a referendum organized by the de facto authorities on Transnistria’s independence from Moldova saw overwhelming support for independence or absorption into Russia. Moldova does not recognize this referendum as legitimate. Although there is currently no armed conflict between Moldova and Transnistria, many issues remain unresolved and tensions persist.

Transnistria’s army at a ceremony commemorating victory in war (Photo: Пресс-служба Президента ПМР / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY 4.0])

Today, Transnistria has its own parliament, army, police, and universities. 60% of residents in the region speak Russian. When Moldova concluded an Association Agreement with the EU in 2014, including a free trade deal, Transnistria, as part of Moldova, gained tariff-free access to the European market. 55% of Transnistria’s imports and 81.6% of its exports come from trade between Moldova and the EU, and this free trade has strengthened ties with Western markets. In response, however, Transnistria expressed concern over Moldova’s tightening relations with the West and, amid Russia’s moves to absorb Crimea, asked for the de facto authorities to be accepted as a subject of the Russian Federation. Despite substantial financial aid from Russia, Transnistria has not reconsidered its ties with Moscow even in the face of the vast EU market, and there are no signs of progress in relations with Moldova.

Issues surrounding energy resources

Energy resources are also a key factor in Moldova’s external relations. Moldova is very poor in energy resources and depends on foreign supplies. Compared to oil and coal, natural gas accounts for a larger share—63% of total energy—and 99% of that is imported from Russia. Because this gas is supplied by Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned monopoly, Moldova’s gas market is effectively dependent on the company. Russian gas enters via Transnistria and is converted into electricity at the Soviet-era Cuciurgan gas-fired power plant, which supplies 80% of Moldova’s power. Thus, a very large part of Moldova’s energy depends on Russia. Moreover, importing Russian gas through Transnistria requires transit via Ukraine, so relations among Moldova, Russia, Transnistria, and Ukraine greatly affect Moldova’s energy issues. As these countries and the region already have unstable relations, the risks to energy security from political deterioration are very high; in the worst case, supplies could be cut off and Moldova plunged into crisis.

A further concern is that non-payment for gas supplied by Gazprom has become routine in Transnistria. Under Soviet rule, Transnistria thrived particularly in heavy industry, and gas consumption for industrial production remains high today. The Moldovan government argues that Tiraspoltransgaz in Transnistria is responsible for repaying debts arising from consumption in the region. Gazprom, however, claims that this debt—USD 6.88 billion, equivalent to 80–90% of Moldova’s GDP—was incurred for gas consumed in Transnistria within Moldova and should be paid in full by the Moldovan government, for which it has filed 16 times with the International Commercial Arbitration Court. Gazprom’s claims have been upheld in all cases so far, but the Moldovan government maintains it will not pay Tiraspoltransgaz’s debt.

Natural gas pipeline in Moldova (Photo: Photobank MD / Flickr [CC0 1.0])

To break away from a vulnerable energy supply system riddled with problems and to secure new energy sources, Moldova has begun to act. Thanks to a natural gas pipeline with Romania whose construction began in 2014 and was extended beyond its initially planned length, Moldova can dramatically increase gas volumes from suppliers other than Russia. Although this new pipeline was completed in August 2020, the start of gas deliveries has been postponed until October 2021 due to tax issues and the drop in gas prices caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Still, as this trade progresses, making Russia aware of Romania as a competitor could help Moldova gain leverage in gas price negotiations. In addition, aiming to connect to Europe’s electricity market, Moldova is upgrading generators, transmission lines, and substations to meet ENTSO-E’s technical requirements so its grid can synchronize with the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E). Renewable energy accounted for only 6% of total power generation as of 2020, but international organizations are promoting deployment plans centered on developing solid biomass fuels, among others. Securing diverse energy sources would not only provide bargaining power by introducing competition among suppliers, but also prevent the country from becoming a hostage in an energy dispute if any single supply route is completely cut off.

Foreign policy and domestic politics

As we have seen, Moldova is strongly affected by its relations with neighboring countries, so a stable political base is required for smooth diplomacy. Yet a strong political foundation has not always been maintained. There is a background of entrenched corruption driven by vested interests, and former President Dodon, whose term ran from 2016 to 2020, was suspected of illicit dealings with a business magnate. Amid this, Maia Sandu—who made the fight against corruption her top campaign pledge—won the presidential election at the end of 2020. In the July 11, 2021 parliamentary elections, the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), which Sandu formerly led, won a majority with 52.6% of the vote. PAS advocates pro-Western policies such as strengthening ties with Romania and EU accession, marking the first time since independence that pro-European forces have held a parliamentary majority. The pro-Russian bloc—the Electoral Bloc of Communists and Socialists (BECS), previously the largest party—garnered only 27.3%. Domestic politics are edging away from Russia and toward the West. Determined to root out corruption and push forward judicial reforms, President Sandu has long called for the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria, and Russia cannot hide its wariness. As one of Europe’s poorest countries, Moldova’s leadership will be severely tested to solve domestic issues one by one, develop its socioeconomy, and manage relations with neighbors while maintaining a delicate balance. It will be worth watching how Moldova’s young president proceeds.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu (Photo: President office of Ukraine / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY 4.0])

Conclusion

This article has examined Moldova’s domestic and international situation in light of its history, language issues, the Transnistria issue, and energy resource challenges. In each area—historical, geographical, political, and identity-related—Moldova remains caught between neighboring countries. No concrete solution has yet been found for Transnistria, and attention is focused on the actions of political leaders, especially in Moldova and Russia. How will Moldova navigate these thorny international relations? The country’s future developments bear close watching.

Note 1 The Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic is not widely recognized, and the Transnistria region is considered part of Moldova. In this article, we treat it as an unrecognized breakaway region.

Writer: Manami Hasegawa

Graphics: Mayuko Hanafusa