On the night of 2021–5–6, during Ramadan (the fasting month) , a shockwave hit Malé, the capital of the Maldives. There was a bombing that targeted the life of Mohamed Nasheed, the former president and current Speaker of Parliament. Nasheed survived what police described as a premeditated act of terror, and within days 4 people were arrested as suspects. In a separate counterterrorism operation, authorities also arrested 8 individuals belonging to an Islamist extremist network who may have been involved in the assassination plot.

While religious radicalism (Note 1) is thought to be escalating in the Maldives, incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih has been cautious about labeling the incident the work of radicals until a thorough investigation is completed. In fact, behind Nasheed’s illustrious political career, he has made many enemies with differing political beliefs. Some have even suggested that his political rivals may have been implicated in corruption, and on the day of the attack Nasheed announced on Twitter that he had obtained a list of individuals involved in multimillion-dollar corruption cases. The attempted assassination not only revealed the presence of rising religious radicalism in the Maldives; it also laid bare the country’s struggles with reforms to address the threat of climate change and rapidly shifting geopolitical currents.

Malé, the capital of the Maldives (Photo: Jim Trodel / Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0])

Innovative politics and reform

Located in the Indian Ocean southwest of India and Sri Lanka, the Maldives is made up of more than 1,000 islands and is a popular tourist destination known for its pristine beaches and seaside resorts. As of 2019, 530,953 people lived on 185 inhabited islands, with about 30% of the total population residing in the capital. The population is overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim. After gaining independence from Britain in 1965, the Maldives maintained the political rule of sultans—a form of personal rule dating back to the 12th century. However, in a national referendum in 1968, an overwhelming 80% voted to abolish the monarchy, and former Prime Minister Ibrahim Nasir became the country’s first president, inaugurating a republic. 10 years later, Nasir stepped down and Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, an Islamic scholar who governed the archipelago, assumed the presidency. Gayoom’s rule lasted for 30 years until Nasheed’s election.

In the country’s first multiparty election in 2008, human rights activist Nasheed was elected president with 54% of the vote. Seeking to end the Gayoom era, he championed reform and democratization and promised unprecedented market-based economic reforms. A broad reform program known as “Aneh Dhivehi Raajje (Aneh Dhivehi Raajje)” aimed to improve the national transportation system; introduce policies to provide housing, livelihoods, and quality healthcare at lower cost; and curb drug trafficking and abuse. At the same time, Nasheed’s victory signaled a new era in Maldivian politics since independence, which had been characterized by authoritarian rule heavily influenced by religion. His secularizing agenda bred religious distrust and provoked conservative right-wing forces that reject the separation of religion and politics.

Nasheed’s opponents saw him as an irreligious figure bent on destroying Islam in the Maldives. Such religious suspicions were exacerbated by some of his policies, which were controversial and inflamed religious conservatives. In particular: (1) accepting foreign “idolatrous” statues and monuments with non-Islamic designs donated by neighboring countries; (2) proposing to make Islam and the national language, Dhivehi, non-compulsory in secondary education; and (3) granting landing rights to El Al, the Israeli airline. Satirical caricatures posted online between 2010 and 2011 that portrayed Nasheed in a religiously blasphemous light became as widespread as his image as a progressive reformer, making it entirely plausible that the recent assassination attempt had a religious motive.

Nasheed during his presidency (Photo: Presidency Maldives / Flickr [CC BY-NC 2.0])

However, the Nasheed administration ended after only about 3 years. The trigger was his order in 2012 to arrest, on corruption charges, a senior Criminal Court judge said to be a supporter of the former president. The opposition mounted large-scale protests for weeks, which escalated into a police mutiny. In a televised address, Nasheed said he did not want to rule the country repressively and chose to resign as the best option under the circumstances. Subsequently, Abdulla Yameen won the presidency in 2013 and for about 10 years pursued policies that spread religious conservatism. In 2015, Nasheed was sentenced to 13 years in prison on terrorism charges. After serving one year, the government allowed him to travel to the UK for medical treatment, and the UK granted him political asylum. Returning from exile in 2018, Nasheed re-entered politics and was elected Speaker of Parliament in 2019.

Political backsliding and religious radicalism

To this day, the political persecution of reformist Nasheed—who advocates separating religion and state—is partly due to strong resistance within President Solih’s administration from holdovers of the Yameen era and influential conservative religious groups in society. It has also been exacerbated by systems and circumstances in Maldivian society that have encouraged the rise of religious radicalism across the islands. Under Gayoom’s rule, in 1995 the Maldives outlawed religions other than Islam, and persecution of citizens who renounce Islam was codified. After the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, fundamentalists intensified proselytization and advocacy in the name of appeasing God’s wrath manifested as natural disaster, urging people to abandon atheism and un-Islamic practices. Succeeding Nasheed, Yameen declared as his political creed the protection of Islamic unity in the Maldives and the promotion of international Islamic solidarity, forging close ties with Saudi Arabia and Wahhabism. Wahhabism is a fundamentalist current that advocates an almost literal reading of the Qur’an and a return to a “pure” Islamic faith. Many have voiced concern—from the education curriculum to the media—that extreme ideologies are being propagated and a culture of impunity is being fostered that could tolerate or encourage crimes against non-Muslims or those deemed not “fully” Muslim.

In 2015, the confirmation of about 200 Maldivians as volunteers for IS (the Islamic State) on battlefields in Iraq and Syria heightened concerns. Though the number may appear small relative to other countries, given a total population of about 400,000 (as of 2015), it suggests that 5 per 10,000 may have become IS volunteers. There have also been numerous cases in recent years indicating the spread of religious radicalism. In 年には the UN Special Rapporteur reported that dangerous religious ideas denying the cultural and religious diversity and freedom of expression of Maldivians were gaining dominance in the country. The same year, the United States designated Maldivian Ahmed Ameen as an important leader of IS recruitment and related activities in the Maldives, Afghanistan, and Syria. Police Commissioner Mohamed Hameed also revealed that there could be 1,400 Islamist extremists in the Maldives. In response, President Solih made addressing violent extremism in the Maldives a government priority and, in his 2019 UN address, signaled his willingness to actively engage in global coordination to eradicate extremism efforts. However, problems remain, such as the unsolved killings of liberal public figures allegedly by Islamist extremist groups.

A demonstration calling for rule by religion rather than democracy (Photo: Dying Regime / Flickr [CC BY 2.0])

An economy of tourism and plunder

The Maldives’ socioeconomic conditions have also created an environment where religious radicalism can take root. The World Bank estimated the country’s poverty rate at 7.2% in 2020, but a 2020 Multidimensional Poverty Index survey conducted by the Maldivian government in cooperation with UNICEF Maldives and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative found that 28% of the population—3 in 10 people—live in multidimensional poverty, deprived of access to health, education, and information, and experiencing low living standards. These harsh social realities stand in stark contrast to the Maldives’ sun-drenched image. Although the country has maintained a high average economic growth rate of about 6% since 2008, growth has not translated into effective social welfare and protection policies. Moreover, the tourism sector, which accounts for a quarter of GDP, has been plagued by corruption scandals involving the elites who dominate the Maldivian economy. Wealth generated by tourism has been monopolized by a small stratum, leaving many Maldivians without a sufficient share.

Gayoom’s three-decade “quality tourism strategy” undeniably produced remarkable economic results. The country’s GDP, about US$45 million in 1980, grew to US$5.64 billion by 2019. However, this prosperity was not necessarily shared broadly, and Maldivian tourism does not necessarily reflect Maldivian culture. To protect Maldivian culture and traditions, the Gayoom administration implemented a meticulous “segregated tourism strategy” that separated tourists and their activities from local communities. While seemingly effective, some began to notice that by excluding communities from service provision and profitable tourism ventures, tourism and its benefits were being detached from locals. A draft human resources report released by the Ministry of Tourism, Arts and Culture in 2011 also highlighted growing concerns over the large number of foreign workers. In 2008, foreign workers accounted for 25% of the Maldives’ total population. The segregated tourism strategy even promoted geographic and social separation between tourists on idyllic resort islands and locals living in poor conditions behind the resorts or in atolls far from tourist sites.

Resort island ownership presents another problem. While the government owns the islands, leasing to the private sector is only carried out through public tenders. As of 2015, local companies owned 77 of the 115 resort islands (67%), with 18 leased to foreign companies and 20 to joint ventures between local and foreign firms under lease. This setup channels the bulk of tourism profits directly to private companies and the government, leaving communities with little benefit. It has also fostered corruption. A hallmark of the Gayoom era was the president’s close ties with the economic elites who dominated the tourism industry. Resort islands were often leased to specific families or companies directly connected to the president.

The tourism industry became even more contentious when the Yameen administration was accused of involvement in US$1.5 billion in money laundering and corrupt deals. In 2016, Vice President Ahmed Adeeb and his associates were charged with embezzling about US$80 million from the state-owned Maldives Marketing and Public Relations Corporation (MMPRC). Adeeb and Yameen both denied the allegations, yet the Yameen-led parliament passed a bill completely abolishing competitive bidding for resort island leases. A renewed investigation in 2018 revealed details of exceptional or illegal transactions involving the leases of at least 50 islands. The report implicated Yameen, Adeeb, other senior officials, and Singaporean billionaire Ong Beng Seng directly in these deals. In 2019, Adeeb testified about his former boss Yameen’s corruption and money laundering. The following year, Adeeb was sentenced to 20 years in prison for corruption, and Yameen received a 5-year sentence for money laundering. Given the high-profile nature of these scandals, the clean-governance reforms championed by Nasheed and President Solih could motivate assassination plots by those fearing exposure or prosecution. In any case, multimillion-dollar corruption cases underscored elite dominance of the economy and showed how political institutions had become tools to sustain a society in which the welfare of ordinary Maldivians could be sacrificed for private gain. In this context, skepticism about the current political system—which has produced a repressive order and a predatory economy—has spread, making religious radicalism, with its promise of rule by religious values, appealing to many who harbor such doubts.

Climate change and geopolitical currents

Beyond countering religious radicalism and corruption, the Solih administration’s reforms also aim to strengthen efforts against the existential threat of climate change. In a 2021 interview, Aminath Shauna, Minister of Environment, Climate Change and Technology, warned that sea-level rise could submerge the low-lying Maldivian archipelago by the end of the century. Tackling a global problem like climate change requires cooperation among all stakeholders, but climate issues have also drawn international actors into Maldivian political debates. The government acknowledges that strategies to adapt to climate change—such as building sea walls and constructing a floating city—require funding, and financing remains a major obstacle. In 2020, the former environment minister floated the idea of seeking funds from countries that have contributed to climate change to address the Maldives’ shortfalls. Because climate issues are tied to both the Maldivian and global economies, examining the country’s international partners and the nature of their engagement offers one gauge of the Maldives’ national power and development strategy.

Nasheed photographed as part of a UN campaign on climate change (Photo: Presidency Maldives / Flickr [CC BY-NC 2.0])

Geographically close India and Europe—which has deep ties with the Maldives—have been the country’s traditional political and economic partners. In fact, travelers from Europe make up half of arrivals to the Maldives, and Europe provides active funding for the country’s environmental protection and sustainable economic development programs. Since 2010, however, the profile of visitors has changed: Chinese tourists began to surpass other nationalities. In 2018, 283,116 Chinese visitors came to the Maldives, accounting for 19.1% of the total arrivals. This shift in tourism reflects changing geopolitical currents around the Maldives. Seeing political and economic opportunity, the Yameen administration tilted toward China. As a result, projects with substantial Chinese investment were approved in quick succession, including an US$830 million international airport upgrade and construction of a 2.1km bridge linking the airport and the capital. Yameen also leased the uninhabited island of Feydhoo Finolhu near the capital to a Chinese company for US$4 million for 50 years. In 2017, he signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with China and, in just 1 day, pushed through parliament and signed a bill allowing foreign companies that invest more than US$1 billion in the Maldives to permanently own land. India feared China would leverage such policies to build military bases in the Indian Ocean, further complicating regional dynamics.

After Yameen left office in 2018, Maldivian diplomacy pivoted again. The new administration under Solih, concerned about China’s growing economic grip on the Maldives, abolished the 2015 foreign land ownership law and considered withdrawing the previous government’s FTA commitment with China. Nevertheless, the Maldivian government has accumulated about US$3.1 billion in debt to China through intergovernmental loans and lending to state-owned enterprises.

A bridge built with financing from China (Photo: Panda 51 / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY-SA 4.0])

Thus, the Yameen administration allowed China’s influence in the Maldives to eclipse India’s role and clout. India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated in a document on bilateral relations that, “With the exception of the short period from February 2012 to November 2018, relations are close, friendly and multi-dimensional.” In 2018, to offset Chinese lending, India offered US$1.4 billion in assistance to the Solih government. Over the next few years, India also committed US$500 million to build a 6.7-km bridge connecting Malé with neighboring islands, signaling India’s intent to compete with China on Maldivian infrastructure projects. In security, India backed the Maldives’ 2020 decision to sign a “Framework for U.S. Department of Defense-Maldives Defense and Security Relationship,” and agreed to strengthen India-Maldives counterterrorism cooperation. The push-and-pull between China and India continues to shape Maldivian politics, national power, and development strategies.

At this stage, it may be too early to assess President Solih’s policies and reforms. The COVID-19 pandemic, ongoing since 2020, has dealt a devastating blow to the Maldivian economy. With tourist arrivals halved, GDP was forecast to contract by 8% to 17% year-on-year, likely complicating the implementation of planned policies. Such economic difficulties can be exacerbated by pervasive threats—religious radicalism, climate change, and geopolitical factors at the international level. The Maldivian people must find ways, both literally and metaphorically, to keep from sinking.

The sea in the Maldives (Photo: Nattu / Flickr [CC BY 2.0])

※ 1 Generally, radicalism refers to positions or claims that seek a rapid or fundamental transformation of the social system and order. Religious radicalism, in this context, refers to such transformative values being based on religious thought.

Writer: Darren Mangado

Translation: Yumi Ariyoshi

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