《A translated Yale Climate Connections article (Note 1)》
Research by Project Drawdown has revealed that while investments to solve the climate crisis are enormous in the short term, they lead to savings over the long term.
According to the research group Project Drawdown, implementing solutions to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement will require tens of trillions of dollars globally. Crucially, however, the study also finds that these expenditures will yield long-term savings many times larger than the initial investments.
The newly released Drawdown Review 2020 (2020 Drawdown Review) includes estimates of the capital costs to implement each solution, operating costs over their lifetimes, and revenues from sales of products associated with agricultural solutions. The key point: although the upfront investment is substantial (about $25 trillion globally), the eventual savings and revenues are five to six times greater.
Project Drawdown is a nonprofit that estimates climate solutions countries can implement to reach the threshold at which atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations begin to decline—the onset of carbon “drawdown.” Achieving reductions in greenhouse gases requires phasing out the use of fossil fuels that produce carbon and strengthening carbon sinks. In 2017, the organization published Drawdown, a New York Times bestseller. The book presents the 100 most practical solutions to global warming, based on the research team’s comprehensive scientific assessment.
The new report examines two potential pathways. The first scenario outlines what solutions are needed to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to within 2°C above preindustrial levels, with drawdown achieved by the mid-2060s. The second scenario is more ambitious: achieving drawdown by the mid-2040s to limit warming to 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement’s aspirational goal. Under this more aggressive scenario, the global economy would save $145 trillion, and an additional $29 trillion in profits would be generated in the agricultural sector (those profits alone would offset $28 trillion in capital costs). Savings in both scenarios are calculated over the solutions’ lifetimes.
Cattle (Photo: Jai79 [Pixabay License])
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Savings from improved public health are not included
Even without accounting for the trillions in savings from improved public health and avoided climate damages, researchers estimate that keeping warming to 1.5°C would yield $145 trillion in economic savings.
Some savings materialize quickly. For example, LEDs cost more than less efficient bulbs, but because they last longer, buying LEDs ultimately costs less than constantly replacing bulbs that burn out quickly. According to the Drawdown Review, as LED bulbs replace older technologies, they will save $2 trillion in capital costs globally and, thanks to improved energy efficiency, an additional $5 trillion over the long term.
Most other climate solutions in the Drawdown Review deliver savings or revenues that more than offset their capital costs. For instance, solar panels and wind turbines have far lower operating and maintenance costs than fossil fuel facilities. As a result, under the second scenario, deploying onshore wind turbines and utility-scale solar panels would save $8.5 trillion and $28 trillion globally, respectively, and distributed solar (such as rooftop systems) would save $13 trillion. Other cost-effective solutions include improved building insulation (saving $23 trillion through increased energy efficiency) and electric vehicles (saving $16 trillion by replacing less efficient gasoline cars).
Most of the differences between the two scenarios come down to how quickly wind and solar are deployed. In the more ambitious second scenario, onshore wind turbines and utility-scale solar panels are the two biggest contributors to emissions cuts. In this scenario, wind’s share of global electricity rises from today’s 4.4% to 27% by 2050, and solar from 1% today to 25% by 2050. In the first scenario, each supplies 20% of electricity by 2050.
Workers installing LED bulbs on a bridge (Photo: Metropolitan Transportation Authority of the State of New York/Flickr [CC BY 2.0])
There is no single “silver bullet” solution to climate change
Some readers may be surprised by other climate solutions in the Drawdown Review, including reducing food waste, improving health and education, eating plant-rich diets, refrigerant management, and restoring tropical forests.
As noted in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report, 25–30% of food produced globally is wasted. In developing countries, most waste occurs before products reach consumers due to a lack of refrigeration, whereas in industrialized countries consumers discard excess food. According to the IPCC report, food waste costs $1 trillion per year and accounts for 10% of greenhouse gas emissions from the food system.
About one-fifth of greenhouse gas emissions come from our food. According to Drawdown, “If cattle were a country, they would be the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world.” In other words, shifting to more plant-based diets can significantly cut emissions while also improving public health.
Population growth is also a challenging issue and a major driver of overall greenhouse gas emissions. Drawdown notes that “women who receive more years of education tend to have fewer, healthier children and to be more proactive in managing sexual and reproductive health.”
Refrigerators and air conditioners use chemical refrigerants that are potent greenhouse gases. Ozone-depleting refrigerants were replaced with ozone-safe hydrofluorocarbons (roughly “Freon”), but HFCs are still 1,000 to 9,000 times more potent as greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide. Alternatives, including natural refrigerants such as propane and ammonia, are now available, and Drawdown concludes that adopting them can curb global warming.
Tropical forests have declined sharply in recent years, having once covered 12% of the world’s land area but now just 5%. Drawdown envisions restoring 287 million hectares (more than one-third the area of the 48 U.S. states excluding Hawaii and Alaska). This goal may be hindered by recent research showing that climate change, through heat waves and drought, is degrading tropical forests.
Forestry (Photo: Gavin Fordham/Flickr [CC BY-NC 2.0])
The diversity of Project Drawdown’s solutions makes clear that there is no “silver bullet” to solve the climate crisis—multiple approaches are needed. Even large individual solutions such as onshore wind turbines contribute less than 10% of total carbon reductions in Drawdown’s scenarios. That’s why Drawdown assessed 100 solutions.
The good news is that these studies show climate solutions are investments with large returns. And if the world makes these investments, the goals of the Paris Agreement will be within reach.
Note 1 This article is a translation of “Covering Climate Now” partner Yale Climate Connections author Dana Nuccitelli’s piece, “Aggressive action to address climate change could save the world $145 trillion.” GNV participates as a partner in “Covering Climate Now,” which designated the week of 4/19–4/26 as a week of coverage and called on participating media outlets to report under the theme “Climate Solutions.” We would like to take this opportunity to thank Yale Climate Connections and Mr. Nuccitelli for providing the article.
Writer: Dana Nuccitelli (Yale Climate Connections)
Translation: Madoka Konishi
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