On July 3, 2019, Kazakhstan became the 24th state to ratify the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) (※1), adopted at the United Nations in July 2017. As part of the former Soviet Union, its territory was used as a nuclear weapons testing ground and it made a major contribution to Soviet-era nuclear weapons development. When it became independent in 1991, as many as 1,410 nuclear weapons were deployed there, making it the world’s fourth-largest nuclear-armed state. Why, then, did Kazakhstan, with such deep ties to nuclear weapons, ratify the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

Near the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, the city of Kurchatov (Photo: Alexander Liskin/Wikimedia [CC BY-SA 3.0])

Kazakhstan and Soviet nuclear weapons

Kazakhstan, with a population of about 19 million, is the world’s largest landlocked country, and its territory is the third largest in Asia after China and India. It was the site of the Soviet Union’s first nuclear test on August 29, 1949. The city of Semipalatinsk in the northeast (later renamed Semey), which became the testing ground, is internationally known. From the late 1960s to the 1970s, there was a period of détente between the United States and the Soviet Union, but from the late 1970s tensions rose again in what is known as the “new Cold War.” This new Cold War continued into the mid-1980s, during which the number of nuclear weapons held by the Soviet Union reached its peak.

Of the Soviet nuclear arsenal, more than 1,410 strategic and tactical nuclear weapons were deployed in Kazakhstan. Among them were 104 SS-18 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), a large missile nicknamed “Satan.” The SS-18 was equipped with multiple warheads to make interception difficult; a single missile carried 10 nuclear warheads, each of which could reenter toward a different target. In other words, as many as 104 of the Soviet Union’s trump-card weapons were deployed in Kazakhstan. Under the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty I (START I), concluded between the United States and the Soviet Union in July 1991 to reduce each side’s nuclear warheads to 6,000, the SS-18 was newly defined as a “heavy ICBM” and designated for reduction, indicating how great a threat the SS-18s deployed in Kazakhstan were perceived to be by the United States.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 and Kazakhstan became independent, Soviet-era nuclear weapons remained on its territory, and at independence Kazakhstan became, along with Belarus and Ukraine, a nuclear-armed state. Within the START I framework, the United States, the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Ukraine concluded the Lisbon Protocol, agreeing to transfer nuclear weapons to Russia. By April 1995, the transfer of 1,410 nuclear warheads to Russia had been completed.

The Semipalatinsk nuclear test site and the anti-nuclear citizens’ movement

The Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, where the Soviet Union conducted its first nuclear test, covered an immense area of 18,500 km². More than 450 nuclear tests were carried out there until the site was closed on August 29, 1991. Of these, 116 were atmospheric tests; after the 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty, concluded multilaterally including the Soviet Union, prohibited nuclear tests other than underground, 340 tests were conducted underground. The radioactive contamination from this series of tests still causes serious health problems for residents even after the site was closed, and it is estimated that 60,000 people died due to radiation from the tests. According to a report by the Hiroshima University Research Institute for Radiation Biology and Medicine in 2003 that aimed to clarify the medical effects of nuclear testing, 90% of people in the exposed areas around Semipalatinsk experienced blast waves and flashes and showed signs of radiation damage such as hair loss. People in the survey areas had not been informed about the nuclear tests and had no knowledge of the dangers of radiation. They became aware of the effects of radiation when, as testing continued, family members developed leukemia and skin diseases, and animals in the area began to lose their fur. According to the study, people from exposed areas who moved to other cities hide that they are from Semipalatinsk. This points to discrimination and prejudice against those exposed to radiation, imposing multiple layers of suffering on them.

After 40 years under the threat of radiation, an underground nuclear test was conducted at Semipalatinsk as late as February 1989, just before the end of the Cold War, worsening contamination levels. In response, Keshrim Boztaev, the regional secretary of the Communist Party in Semipalatinsk, appealed to the Soviet leadership for the immediate cessation of nuclear tests. Kazakh poet Olzhas Suleimenov called on the people of Kazakhstan to unite against nuclear testing. An anti-nuclear movement known as the Nevada–Semipalatinsk movement (※2) emerged, drawing thousands to a rally in Almaty, then the capital. Suleimenov, the leader of the movement, later visited the United States to call for a halt to nuclear testing there as well, and more than one million signatures were collected demanding a halt to tests and the closure of the test site. Under pressure from such civic movements, the Supreme Soviet decided in January 1992 to close the test site. In fact, the site was closed earlier than planned: Nursultan Nazarbayev, president of the Kazakh Soviet Republic, which had declared state sovereignty in October 1990 prior to independence, closed the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site on August 29, 1991.

A crater left by nuclear testing, Semipalatinsk (Photo: CTBTO/Flickr [CC BY 2.0])

Non-proliferation, test bans, and Kazakhstan

The Lisbon Protocol to START also stipulated that the three newly independent states of Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan would join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (※3), and accordingly Kazakhstan ratified the NPT on December 13, 1993. Although by joining the NPT Kazakhstan renounced possession of nuclear weapons, its anti-nuclear policy did not stop there. In May 2002 it ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and in September 2006 the five Central Asian countries signed a nuclear-weapon-free zone treaty, pledging to prohibit the stationing of other states’ nuclear weapons and to ensure the absence of nuclear weapons within their territories. Before the establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in Central Asia, such zones had already been created in four regions—Latin America, the South Pacific, Africa, and Southeast Asia—and each treaty is commonly referred to by the place where it was signed, such as the Treaty of Tlatelolco in Latin America. In the case of Central Asia, the treaty is commonly known as the “Semey Treaty” or the “Semipalatinsk Treaty.” As the name makes clear, Semipalatinsk in Kazakhstan has become a symbol of the movement against nuclear weapons.

With the Semey Treaty entering into force on March 21, 2009, the legal absence of nuclear weapons within Kazakhstan’s territory was assured. Furthermore, at the UN General Assembly on December 2 of the same year, at Kazakhstan’s initiative, August 29 was declared the International Day against Nuclear Tests. Kazakhstan has been proactive in nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, and this stance has not changed in recent years. At the negotiating conferences for the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons mentioned at the outset, the Kazakhstani representative stated that “1.5 million people in Kazakhstan are affected by nuclear testing” and argued that the victims of nuclear testing were at the heart of the anti-nuclear movement and that support for them should be emphasized, asserting this position. The preamble of the TPNW as finally agreed includes the wording, “Mindful of the unacceptable suffering of and harm caused to the victims of the use of nuclear weapons (hibakusha), as well as of those affected by the testing of nuclear weapons…” (※4), which aligns with Kazakhstan’s stance.

The “Satan” (SS-18) ICBM (Photo: Clay Gilliland/Wikimedia [CC BY-SA 2.0])

Kazakhstan’s security and the peaceful use of nuclear energy

While grassroots anti-nuclear movements are active and the state itself is proactive in nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, Kazakhstan is not entirely detached from nuclear weapons and radiation. As noted earlier, Soviet-era nuclear weapons were deployed there, and since 1994 Kazakhstan has been a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), led by Russia and composed of former Soviet states, meaning that in some respects its national security relies on Russia’s nuclear weapons. Kazakhstan promotes nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, but it did not abandon nuclear weapons unconditionally. For example, in the process leading up to the conclusion of the Lisbon Protocol, in accepting the transfer of nuclear weapons to Russia, it demanded political, economic, and security assurances in return. And in a media interview in May 1992, President Nazarbayev argued that, since there was no guarantee that the nuclear weapons transferred to Russia would be completely destroyed, independent Kazakhstan would retain nuclear weapons for at least 15 years.

Regarding the establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone, the initial proponent was neighboring Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan was not especially enthusiastic. Although Kazakhstan transferred Soviet-era nuclear weapons to Russia, it was reluctant to establish a nuclear-weapon-free zone, which would also prohibit the stationing of other states’ nuclear weapons, because this would make it impossible for Russian nuclear weapons to be deployed on Kazakhstan’s territory in the future. Under the Collective Security Treaty of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a political association formed by former Soviet republics after the Soviet collapse, deployment of Russian nuclear weapons was possible, but participation in a nuclear-weapon-free zone treaty would make that impossible. For Kazakhstan, which depended on Russia for security, a ban on the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons was unacceptable. Ultimately, the Semey Treaty included a special clause stipulating that it would not affect other treaties, leaving open the possibility of Russian nuclear weapons being deployed.

Furthermore, although the nuclear test site was closed, Kazakhstan continues to cooperate with Russia on missile development. One such site is the Sary Shagan missile test range on the shores of Lake Balkhash in the east, where Russia tests anti-ballistic missile interceptors. Kazakhstan also provides 25% of the overall facility at the Kapustin Yar missile test range in the west, on the border with Russia. At Kapustin Yar, an ICBM test capable of carrying a nuclear warhead was conducted in July 2019; the missile launched from Kapustin Yar reached a target at the Sary Shagan test range, and the test was successful. In this way, Kazakhstan is in effect contributing to the modernization of Russia’s missiles. Unlike anti-ballistic interceptors, ICBMs can carry nuclear weapons, so cooperation in their development directly relates to the development of nuclear weapons.

Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev meeting with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (Photo: President of Russia [CC BY 4.0])

Article 1 of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which Kazakhstan ratified, prohibits assistance to the development of nuclear weapons (※5). According to Ulrich Kühn of the University of Hamburg, if the TPNW enters into force, missile test sites would also have to be closed, and to continue its relationship with Russia, Kazakhstan would either have to withdraw from the treaty or conduct missile tests in secret. At present, relatively few countries have ratified the prohibition treaty and its entry into force is not yet in sight, so Kazakhstan is in a situation where it can signal its intent to pursue a ban on nuclear weapons while maintaining relations with Russia.

Moreover, beyond security, nuclear issues occupy an important place for Kazakhstan economically. Today Kazakhstan is the world’s largest uranium producer, accounting for about 40% of global output. In 2010, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) decided to establish a reserve bank to manage low-enriched uranium (※6), used as fuel for nuclear power generation, and to supply uranium stably in cases where it cannot be obtained from the market. Kazakhstan proposed itself as a candidate site for this LEU Bank, and in 2015 an agreement was concluded between the government of Kazakhstan and the IAEA to establish the reserve. In October 2019, low-enriched uranium was delivered to the facility in Kazakhstan, and the world’s first LEU Bank began operation. Thus, even while suffering from contamination by nuclear materials, Kazakhstan as a state is investing in the peaceful use of nuclear energy and is by no means opposed to all nuclear-related technologies.

As international recognition of the contamination caused by nuclear testing at Semipalatinsk has grown, nuclear issues have become a topic through which Kazakhstan can appeal for cooperation to the international community. There is the view that Sweden damaged its reputation by not signing the TPNW, and for Kazakhstan, ratifying the treaty at this stage was an action that did not impede cooperation with Russia and earned reputation and cooperation from the international community in nuclear energy cooperation. The background to Kazakhstan’s proactive approach to nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation is not only moral conviction and beliefs opposing nuclear weapons. There is also a glimpse of national shrewdness in making rational choices with national interests in mind while enhancing its international reputation by taking a proactive stance on disarmament and non-proliferation.

Low-enriched uranium being delivered to the IAEA’s reserve bank facility (Photo: Katy Laffan (IAEA)/Flickr [CC BY 2.0])

Kazakhstan and the future of nuclear issues

At present, more than 25 additional ratifications are still needed for the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons to enter into force, and the situation for nuclear disarmament is difficult, with developments such as the lapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) (※7). Considering its cooperation with Russia on missile development and the peaceful use of nuclear energy, Kazakhstan’s policy choices will have a non-negligible impact on the entry into force of the TPNW and, by extension, on nuclear disarmament. Even if the treaty enters into force, if Kazakhstan were to rely on a nuclear umbrella while being a party to the treaty, it could weaken the treaty’s significance. On the other hand, having experienced the calamity of nuclear testing, Kazakhstan is in a position to reject the nuclear umbrella and exercise international leadership toward nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. Which path will Kazakhstan choose? If we are to gauge the future of nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation, and international peace and security, we should pay close attention to Kazakhstan’s future nuclear policy.

※１ The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons is a treaty signed in September 2017. Unlike the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which does not prohibit the use of nuclear weapons, it also bans their use. Fifty ratifications are required for the treaty to enter into force. As of April 2020, 36 countries had ratified it. Many nuclear-armed states, as well as many of their allies, did not participate in the negotiations.

※２ This movement developed in tandem with anti-nuclear activism in Nevada in the United States, which also suffered radioactive contamination from nuclear testing; hence “Nevada” in the name.

※３ The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: NPT) is a treaty concluded to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. It was signed in 1968 and entered into force in 1970, and now has 191 parties. Under this treaty, five states—the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, and Russia (the Soviet Union)—are recognized as nuclear-weapon states, while all other countries are prohibited from possessing nuclear weapons.

※４ In the English text, the term “hibakusha” is also inserted: “Mindful of the unacceptable suffering of and harm caused to the victims of the use of nuclear weapons (hibakusha), as well as of those affected by the testing of nuclear weapons…”

※５ The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons stipulates the following:

Article 1 Each State Party undertakes never under any circumstances to:

(a) Develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.

(e) Assist, encourage or induce, in any way, anyone to engage in any activity prohibited to a State Party under this Treaty.

※６ Uranium has several isotopes, and the isotope that undergoes fission is uranium-235. Most natural uranium is uranium-238, and uranium-235 accounts for only about 0.7%. To harness fission energy, enrichment is required to increase the proportion of uranium-235. Low-enriched uranium is used for power generation and the like, while highly enriched uranium is needed for nuclear weapons.

※７ The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty is a treaty concluded in December 1987, at the end of the Cold War, between the United States and the Soviet Union to prevent nuclear war in Europe, obligating both countries to eliminate all ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 km and 5,500 km. The United States under the administration of Donald Trump argued that Russia was violating the treaty and notified Russia in February 2019 that it would suspend its obligations. In accordance with the treaty, it lapsed six months later when the United States withdrew in August 2019.

Writer: Masanori Kubota

Graphics: Yow Shuning