On February 5, 2025, a new migration law in Russia that simplifies deportation procedures for irregular migrants took effect. Previously, deportations required a court’s signature, but that procedure will no longer be necessary. To restrict irregular migrants’ access to public services, the Russian government has created a “register of persons subject to control,” making it easy to deport those included on the list.

September 10, 2025 is the deadline (※1) by which, under this new legal regime, foreign nationals without the necessary residence permits or visas will be expelled from Russia with a re-entry ban. This legal reform aims to expel foreign laborers working in Russia, many of whom come from Central Asian countries.

Tajikistan is one such labor-sending country, and about 48% of its gross domestic product (GDP) comes from remittances sent by those working abroad. In Tajikistan, at least one person works abroad in 30–40% of households, and the money they send is used for essentials such as food. For this reason, Russia’s migration restrictions are, quite literally, a matter of life and death for many Tajiks. This article focuses primarily on Tajikistan’s economy in this context.

Tajik workers in Russia (Photo: Fred S. / Flickr [CC BY-NC 2.0])

Overview and history of Tajikistan

Tajikistan is a country in Central Asia with a population of about 10.6 million. Over 80% of the population is Tajik, but people identifying as Uzbek, Kyrgyz, Russian, and other ethnicities also live there. Over 90% of Tajiks are Muslim. Most are Sunni of the Hanafi school, but in the Pamir Plateau in the south there are communities that follow the Ismaili branch of Shi’ism.

Main industries include cotton, aluminum, and hydropower, and the country also holds reserves of coal and various ores. Beyond these industries, however, remittances from Tajiks working abroad account for a large share of the economy.

We will now briefly review Tajikistan’s history.

Tajikistan and its surrounding regions have historically been ruled by various powers over time. Arabs arrived in the 8th century, leading to Islamization, and the area was subsequently ruled by the Samanids, the Mongol Empire, the Timurid Empire, and others. Much of what is now Tajikistan came under the control of the Khanate of Bukhara around the 16th century, and by the late 19th century the entire region came under some form of Russian control. After the 1917 Russian Revolution, the Soviet Union’s 1924 national delimitation created the Tajik Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic as an autonomous entity within the Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic. In 1929 it was separated from the Uzbek republic and elevated from an autonomous republic to a union republic.

Following the Soviet collapse in 1991, Tajikistan declared independence in September, but the transfer of power did not proceed smoothly. In the November presidential election, a candidate from the former Communist Party prevailed, but confrontation with the opposition continued. From around 1990, several reformist groups had formed in reaction to the Communist Party’s strengthening leadership—including the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan and the Democratic Party of Tajikistan—and after the November 1991 presidential election they further consolidated.

From 1992, demonstrations in the capital Dushanbe demanding the dissolution of parliament and democratic elections escalated and by May had led to armed clashes. A coalition government including the opposition was formed and the situation in the capital calmed, but in the provinces weapons flowed in and fighting between the old guard and opposition forces continued. Lasting roughly five years and shifting across locations, the conflict resulted in an estimated 20,000 deaths and about 600,000 displaced people, dealing a devastating blow to Tajikistan’s economy that persists to this day.

During the conflict, Emomali Rahmon (whose surname was Rahmonov until March 2007) was elected Chairman of the Supreme Council in 1992 and President in 1994, and as of 2025 he continues to hold power.

Current politics and challenges in Tajikistan

Before delving into economic issues, let’s briefly review Tajikistan’s current politics. As noted earlier, since independence Tajikistan has seen a prolonged rule by President Rahmon, and this has led to corruption that is cited as one cause of the country’s economic problems by observers.

Emomali Rahmon, President of Tajikistan (Photo: Kristina Kormilitsyna (“Rossiya Segodnya”) / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY 4.0])

Tajikistan is a presidential republic. However, since the incumbent Rahmon was first elected in 1994, he has won every presidential election held every seven years—five in a row including his first victory. In the parliamentary elections held in March 2025, in the effective absence of an opposition, the ruling People’s Democratic Party of Tajikistan led by President Rahmon won again. The lack of transparency and fairness in these elections has long been criticized domestically and internationally, with the authoritarian system essentially preserved. For example, in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index 2024, Tajikistan ranks 159th out of 167 countries and is classified as an authoritarian regime.

This situation is unlikely to change easily. A 2016 constitutional amendment removed presidential term limits for Rahmon alone, allowing him to run for president indefinitely. In April 2020, his son Rustam Emomali, the mayor of Dushanbe, assumed the chairmanship of the upper house of parliament, widely seen as preparation for succession.

Under this authoritarian system, various problems have arisen. While the presidential family monopolizes political and economic elite positions and corruption is rampant, the authorities continue to tighten control over those who might oppose this order. Repression of the media is the prime example. Independent outlets critical of the government can scarcely operate, and censorship of the internet and print publications is severe.

Government repression of religion has also intensified year by year. In 2024 the authorities toughened regulations on attire conforming to Islamic norms in public spaces, banning the wearing of the hijab by women. They also banned Ismaili minority prayer in private homes and barred minors from attending prayers in mosques, among other restrictions on freedom of religion.

Overview of Tajikistan’s economy

We now take a closer look at Tajikistan’s economy.

As noted, Tajikistan’s economy rests on remittances from abroad, agriculture such as cotton, and industry including raw material exports. As natural resources, the country has minerals like gold and silver, aluminum, uranium, fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas, and water resources in lakes and rivers suitable for hydropower. In the National Development Strategy formulated by the government in 2016 to 2030, the goal is to leverage these energy resources while pursuing sustainable economic growth and diversification. For example, the Rogun Hydropower Plant Project under way with support from the World Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is one initiative aimed at achieving energy security and economic growth.

One of the trade support projects carried out in Tajikistan by the United Nations Development Programme (Photo: United Nations Development Programme in Europe and CIS / Flickr [CC BY-NC-SA 2.0])

GDP growth in 2024 was 8.4%, and growth of around 4–7% is expected from 2025 onward. In reality, however, Tajikistan’s economy is fraught with problems and vulnerabilities.

First, the instability of remittances—which make up a large share of GDP—stands out. In 2024, personal remittance inflows to Tajikistan amounted to about 48% of GDP. As the next section details, remittances sent by migrant workers are highly sensitive to the political and economic conditions in destination countries and thus very unstable. In Tajikistan’s case, Russia is the main destination, but as noted at the outset, migration controls there are tightening and the outlook is not bright.

Other sectors also face multiple problems. As noted above, the president’s family and close associates wield enormous economic influence, which has fueled corruption across the board. For example, firms run by the president’s family receive various privileges, preventing competitors from growing; widespread official corruption and extortion deter investment; and markets fail to function properly.

The banking sector is also vulnerable. Dollarization of capital makes it difficult to conduct independent monetary policy, further hampering development. In this context, Tajikistan relies on Chinese investment to build its fragile infrastructure, raising concerns about the resulting debt.

The Rogun Hydropower Plant, a flagship project promoted by the government to improve electricity infrastructure and drive growth, also has many issues. The dam under construction for this plant is expected to have adverse impacts on downstream populations, industries, and the environment at home and abroad. Within Tajikistan, more than 60,000 people are expected to be resettled due to the dam’s construction, but this is not a society where dissent can be freely expressed. Central Asia is prone to conflict over scarce water resources. Although it has since withdrawn its opposition, Uzbekistan once strongly opposed this dam project, and there is a risk that inter-state tensions could rise.

Construction site of the Rogun Hydropower Plant (Photo: Sosh19632 / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY-SA 4.0])

Remittances from abroad

We now look at remittances, which in effect sustain Tajikistan’s economy.

Remittances are money sent by migrant workers to their families and others back home. As economic disparities between high- and low-income countries widen and labor demand grows in aging high-income countries, more people from low- and middle-income countries are expected to seek better pay abroad and remit money home. In aggregate, global remittances are more than three times official government-to-government aid, making them a crucial source of income for low- and middle-income countries.

Tajikistan is among the countries most dependent on remittances. According to the World Bank, the share of remittances in Tajikistan’s GDP has gradually increased since the early 2000s and, despite year-to-year fluctuations, has hovered around 25–50%. In 2024, remittances accounted for 47.9% of GDP, estimated at US$6.8 billion.

Much of this migration is seasonal, with many going to Russia to work for only part of the year. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), from January to September 2024, about 1.2 million people left Tajikistan to work abroad, while about 1 million returned during the same period. Russia is the destination for 98% of these workers. Owing to Tajikistan’s historical ties as part of the former Soviet Union, visa-free entry, existing Tajik communities in Russia, and the fact that many Tajiks speak Russian to some extent, Russia has become a major destination for labor migration.

Tajikistan’s President Rahmon (left) and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (right) (Photo: Presidential Executive Office of Russia / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY 4.0])

Why, in the first place, have remittances become so important in Tajikistan? Several factors are at play, but the main one is the lack of employment opportunities. Tajikistan’s population is slowly growing, and the labor force is increasing accordingly. However, the economic shock of transitioning from a socialist to a capitalist economy after the Soviet collapse, combined with the civil conflict of the same period, dealt a devastating blow to Tajikistan’s economy, the effects of which persist, leaving insufficient job opportunities. As a result, exporting labor rather than producing goods and services domestically has become economically crucial.

Short-term work abroad, however, carries many risks. Since most Tajik migrant workers go to Russia, we focus on that relationship here.

First, there has been a tightening of regulations on immigrants. In Russia, repression of migrants has intensified since 2024. The trigger was a March 2024 attack on a concert hall near Moscow that left 149 people dead. The four perpetrators were Tajik citizens, and this has led to stronger controls on immigrants.

Holders of Tajik citizenship can enter Russia without a visa, but they still need to obtain work permits and other authorization to work legally. Migrants who work without such procedures are considered irregular, and many Tajiks are believed to work in this way. The Russian government has made it easier to deport irregular migrants, made it more difficult for foreigners to obtain residence permits through marriage, and in some regions banned foreigners from working in certain sectors, among other measures. Deportations have in fact increased; in 2024, more than 80,000 people were deported—about twice as many as in 2023.

Behind the crackdown is a strain of xenophobia. Even before, migrants in Russia were often seen as an economic threat that “steals Russian jobs,” while Tajiks, the majority of whom are Muslim, were subject to cultural disdain. These tendencies have intensified since the 2024 attack. Harassment, violence, and hate speech against Central Asian workers in Russia have increased. In response, the Tajik Embassy in Russia issued an advisory in September 2024 urging citizens to avoid traveling to Russia unless absolutely necessary.

In addition, changes in Russia’s political and economic situation can easily affect Tajik workers. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia tightened entry restrictions, and in spring 2020 remittances from Russia to Tajikistan fell by 50%. Immediately after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Western sanctions against Russia led to a sharp decline in the value of the ruble, reducing the value of remittances to Tajikistan accordingly.

A line of Tajik migrants outside the Tajik Embassy in Moscow, Russia (Photo: Bloomberg / Getty Images)

More than 80% of remittances to Tajikistan are reportedly spent on essentials such as food, making them extremely important for the population. Despite regulations and discrimination in Russia and government advisories to avoid travel unless necessary, the number of people working abroad has not decreased significantly. Nevertheless, remittances are inherently unstable and dependent on other countries, and creating jobs at home is an urgent task.

Poverty issues

As we have seen, economic instability has made chronic poverty a persistent problem.

According to the World Bank’s extreme poverty line (as of 2017) of US$2.15 per day, the share of people living in extreme poverty fell from about 40% in 2003 to 6.1% in 2015. However, the share of people living below the ethical poverty line (※2) of US$7.4 per day was 67% in 2015. While the “extreme poverty” rate has declined, many Tajiks still suffer from poverty and struggle even to buy basic necessities, a stark reality.

One cause of this situation is the lack of employment opportunities at home. The labor force participation rate—the share of people of working age who are employed or seeking work—was 46.6% in 2021, about 20% below the global median. Even for those who manage to find work, wage levels are low, particularly in the agricultural sector, which accounts for a large share of employment.

People working in the cotton industry (Photo: World Bank Photo Collection / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0])

Another issue is that much of the labor force works in the informal economy. The informal economy refers to economic activities conducted by workers and entities not recognized or protected under legal frameworks. For workers, this means a lack of protection by labor standards and social security systems and no guarantees of fair wages. According to a UNDP report on Tajikistan, in a survey from March to May 2020, 36.7% of respondents worked in the informal economy. From the GDP perspective, an estimated 43% of production activity occurs in the informal economy.

Poverty is particularly harsh for women and children, who are often in vulnerable positions. In 30–40% of households, at least one family member works abroad, and most of these workers are men. As a result, women left behind must manage households alone in a gender-unequal society. Many children also live in severe poverty. In Tajikistan, one-third of children under five—about 430,000—face severe child food poverty, a situation worse than the global average.

Conclusion

After the post-Soviet economic shock and a five-year conflict that devastated its economy, Tajikistan has been ruled for more than 30 years by an autocrat who has held power since shortly after independence. In a rigid system rife with corruption, job opportunities are scarce and wages are low. To make ends meet, people have little choice but to seek work abroad. However, the outflow of labor risks further stagnating domestic industries.

The president has vowed to develop the economy and further reduce poverty by improving telecommunications and infrastructure, promoting industrialization, and securing energy and food supplies, as set out in the National Development Strategy. At the same time, he has poured vast sums into holding lavish festivals and purchasing a presidential aircraft. If the goal is to improve living standards, there is a need to reconsider such spending.

We will continue to watch closely how Tajikistan changes in both political and economic terms.

※1 The deadline by which, unless people leave Russia or obtain permits or visas to remain, they will be expelled with a re-entry ban. Initially set for April 30, 2025, it was extended.

※2 At GNV, we use an ethical poverty line (US$7.4/day) rather than the World Bank’s extreme poverty line (US$2.15/day). For details, see GNV’s article “How should we interpret the global poverty situation?”

Graphic: Ayane Ishida

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