Africa’s Long-Running Regimes: The Road to Democratization

by Shiori Yamashita | 2 March 2017 | Global View, Middle East/North Africa, Politics, Sub-Saharan Africa

December 21, 2016, The Gambia, West Africa. Former President Yahya Jammeh, amid some voices of regret but even louder jeers, went into exile in Equatorial Guinea. This marked the end of a 22-year-long regime that had begun in 1994. He rejected the results of the presidential election in which he lost to opposition candidate Barrow and refused to relinquish power even after his term had expired. In the end, he overstayed in violation of the rules for three days. This bloodless transfer of authority involved the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which had hinted at military intervention. Immediately after Senegal’s army, which surrounds The Gambia, crossed the border as part of the ECOWAS intervention, Jammeh announced his resignation. New President Adama Barrow has, for the time being, requested the stationing of ECOWAS troops as a precaution against Jammeh.

The attention to this political transition in The Gambia stems from the persistence of long-standing regimes in many African countries. In many nations, elections are held and representatives chosen by the people conduct politics. However, this does not necessarily equate to “democracy.” In many cases in Africa, a single president remains in power for a long time, or ruling parties do not change for years. Much of African democracy is centralized, and once power is obtained, it is difficult to dismantle that structure from the outside.

For example, the ruling party may effectively make free political activity by the opposition impossible. According to the international human rights organization Amnesty International, during Uganda’s 2016 election period, police used force to obstruct activists, including opposition candidates, and political gatherings were restricted. Without a strong opposition, parties and political leaders feel little threat. Moreover, even if votes go to a rival candidate, the president can still crush the results. In Rwanda, there are strong suspicions that an election that should have been democratic was “manipulated.”

There are also countries where the continued rule of the same individual is justified by law. Presidents Mugabe (Zimbabwe), Nguema (Equatorial Guinea), and dos Santos (Angola) each amended their national constitutions, rendering their more-than-35-year rule “constitutional.”

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Why do they want to remain national leaders for so long? When power changes hands, not only the president but also advisers and other associates lose their positions and influence in an instant. Senior officials and supporters in a mutually dependent relationship with the president cling to power and financial benefits, solidifying the surrounding system. Fear that a new leader after a transition might prosecute them for corruption or human rights abuses committed while in office is also cited as a reason for clinging to the presidency as well.

African Union Summit held in Equatorial Guinea By Embassy of Equatorial Guinea [CC-BY-ND-2.0], via Flickr

However, even within Africa, there are countries that have succeeded in transferring power through democratic elections. Influenced by the Arab Spring, Zambia in 2011 saw its first change of ruling party in 20 years. In Senegal, peaceful transitions of power occurred in 2000 and 2012. Citizen-led social movements and media independent of the state made significant contributions to democratic elections.

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, protests erupted after President Joseph Kabila remained in power even after his term ended in 2016. More than 50 people were killed. In response, he declared that he would step down after the next election in 2017. If that election is held, the first peaceful transfer of power since independence in 1960 is expected.

Also, in February 2017, Angola’s dos Santos, who had ruled for 37 years, announced he would not run in the next election. In Angola, where politics had been dominated by dos Santos’s relatives since 1975, 2017 looks likely to be the first step toward democratization. However, while keeping the opposition in check, he personally designated the current defense minister as the ruling party’s presidential candidate, and appointed his daughter, the wealthiest woman in Africa, to head the state oil company, already consolidating Angola’s power structure for after his retirement.

The Gambia’s bloodless transfer of power is said to have owed its success to geographic factors such as the country’s small size and the fact that leaders of surrounding countries were all from opposition backgrounds. The method of leveraging a supranational organization’s military might cannot be deemed the right means everywhere and at all times. However, the more democratic governments increase in Africa, the more they can be expected to exert organized pressure toward democratization in other countries. In 2017, led by The Gambia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Angola, will an “African Spring” arrive?