In Bulgaria, a general election is scheduled for October 2024. This is because, after the June 2024 election, the parties failed to reach an agreement to form a coalition government. The June election made Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), the center-right ruling party led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, the largest party, and the centrist We Continue the Change (PP) the second largest, with no bloc securing a majority. Although a coalition government was formed after the April 2024 election, disagreements among the parties within the government became conspicuous, leading to the June vote. There have already been three general elections in 2024 alone. Nor is this limited to 2024: the next election will be the seventh general election in three years, underscoring Bulgaria’s political instability and making it the seventh vote in three years.

Why has this situation persisted? This article traces the history behind Bulgaria’s political instability to explore its underlying causes.

Inside the Bulgarian parliament (Photo: Ava Babili / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0])

Basic information on Bulgaria

Bulgaria is currently a parliamentary democracy and a republic with a president as head of state and a prime minister heading the government. The president is elected by direct popular vote every five years. The parliament is a unicameral National Assembly elected every four years by proportional representation. The party winning the most seats nominates a candidate for prime minister, who is then determined by a vote of confidence in parliament. Major political parties include Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), the There Is No Such Country party (ITN), the We Continue the Change (PP), and the Movement of Mehmet Denkovski (DPS). As of September 2024, the ruling coalition GERB is center-right and conservative, while PP is centrist. The judiciary is based on separation of powers and includes the Supreme Court of Cassation, the Supreme Administrative Court (※1),  courts of appeal, and others. In particular, the Presidents of the Supreme Court of Cassation and the Supreme Administrative Court, the Prosecutor General, and the Director of the National Investigation Service are appointed by the president upon a proposal by the Supreme Judicial Council.

Bulgarian key industries include agriculture, manufacturing, the IT industry and services, and tourism. Its inflation rate is high at 15.3% compared with the world standard of 8.7%. Although Bulgaria is an EU member, it does not yet meet the criteria for joining the euro area. The criteria include price stability, sound public finances, exchange rate stability, and long-term interest rate convergence. In recent years, especially with the deepening of trade and investment ties with EU countries, higher minimum wages and pensions, and increased public investment through utilization of EU funds have expanded domestic demand, and the economic growth rate has been rising.

While the economy is growing, the population has been steadily declining, as previously highlighted in GNV articles, and the working-age population is expected to decrease by 0.9% annually over the next 5 years. Outmigration is also a challenge, raising concerns about labor shortages. The unemployment rate is 4.4%, lower than the global rate of 5.3%.

Historical background and the present

During World War II, after joining the Tripartite Pact in 1941, Bulgaria became aligned with the Axis powers and in the same year was invaded by the Soviet Union (hereafter the Soviet Union), falling under its influence. After the war, Bulgaria remained under Soviet influence, and in 1946 it was proclaimed a People’s Republic, establishing a communist regime. In 1947, a new constitution in line with the Soviet model established a one-party dictatorship. In 1954, Todor Zhivkov became General Secretary of the Communist Party, the country’s top leader, and held power for 33 years. His guiding principle was subservience to the Soviet Union. Bulgaria was even called the “16th republic of the Soviet Union,” and by imitating internal policies, strengthening ties through the Warsaw Pact and the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (Comecon) to build stable trade relations, it improved the economy and living standards of what was called Eastern Europe’s poorest country, Bulgaria, thereby achieving progress. However, this Soviet-style authoritarian system collapsed as part of the 1989 East European revolutions and Soviet reforms, and democratization accelerated rapidly.

Cityscape of Sofia (Photo: Sami C / Flickr [CC BY 2.0])

After the collapse of the one-party dictatorship, many new parties emerged and Bulgaria shifted toward a multi-party system. In 1990, the transition from state ownership to privatization under the former communist regime and the need to purchase raw materials that had previously been supplied by the Soviet Union led to an economic crisis. In response, the left-wing Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), a social-democratic party and successor to the former Communist Party, won the free election in June, but failed to overcome the crisis, and the BSP government collapsed in November 1990 amid mass demonstrations and a general strike. After the fall of the BSP government, the opposition Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) took power. In other words, the seeds of the political instability that continues today were visible in Bulgaria by the late 20th century.

Furthermore, in 1992, during the era of the pre-democratization one-party regime, former Communist Party leader Todor Zhivkov received a seven-year prison sentence for embezzlement of public funds. The fact that a once-dominant powerbroker in Bulgarian politics received a prison sentence shocked the public. Amid such political instability, the BSP returned to power. However, in 1996 the economic crisis deepened, and in the same year the Bulgarian Supreme Court overturned Zhivkov’s conviction for alleged malfeasance in office. The series of court developments greatly undermined public trust in the judiciary’s impartiality and independence, with skepticism about the courts becoming strongly entrenched compared with neighboring countries, as reflected in the results.

In 1997, a sharp currency depreciation triggered a banking crisis and massive public protests. The opposition boycotted parliament and called for elections; the Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) again took power. In the early 2000s, ties with Western countries strengthened, culminating in accession to NATO in 2004 and to the EU in 2007.

A politics in constant flux

Despite these advances, corruption remained endemic. The European Commission’s interim reports in 2008 and 2012 warned that anti-corruption measures were inadequate and recommended stronger action. Despite the EC’s recommendations, corruption persisted, leading to economic sanctions including suspension of EU funds in response to their misuse. The country simultaneously faced further problems, including power cuts at public facilities and production line stoppages in factories due to the impact of the 2009 Russia–Ukraine gas dispute (※２), which exacerbated discontent with the government’s energy policy and handling of the economic crisis.

Demonstration in Bulgaria (Photo: Georgi C / Flickr [CC BY 2.0])

Amid growing public dissatisfaction, the 2009 election brought to power a government led by Prime Minister Borissov. The Borissov administration, led by the center-right GERB, held office for extended periods in 2009–2013, 2014–2017, and 2017–2021, pledging to eradicate corruption. In practice, however, public anger mounted, and in 2013, a hike in electricity prices sparked large-scale protests over public-sector corruption, leading Borissov to resign.

After the collapse of the Borissov government, a succession of short-lived cabinets followed, further heightening political instability. In June 2014, a banking crisis struck; the BSP–DPS coalition, one of the short-lived governments, quickly fell apart, triggering a snap election. The result brought Borissov back to power. Upon returning as prime minister, he again pledged to tackle corruption, but public trust remained low. In the 2017 election, GERB again won, and Borissov returned as prime minister.

The third Borissov government promoted economic growth and deepened ties with the EU, but suspicions of public-sector corruption and mounting dissatisfaction with the government accumulated. In 2020, nationwide protests erupted over government corruption and concerns about judicial independence, lasting for months and displaying public discontent with the Borissov administration. Although the government made some concessions, no fundamental reforms were carried out, and public  dissatisfaction was not alleviated. In the wake of these protests, in the April 2021 general election GERB emerged as the largest party but failed to secure a majority, and coalition talks stalled. Ultimately, GERB could not form a government; a new election was held in July, with the new populist party ITN becoming the largest force. Yet again, a government could not be formed. In the November election, the new party PP rose, and its co-leader Kiril Petkov became prime minister. Although the party advocated fighting corruption, judicial reform, and government transparency, the difficulties of managing a coalition meant its political performance cannot be called an unqualified success.

In 2023, political turmoil returned. The April 2023 election produced a coalition government between GERB and PP, which introduced the “rotating premiership,” a novel tactic in which figures from each party alternated in the prime minister’s post. The root of this unprecedented coalition between the traditional GERB and the new PP lay in a desire to confront external threats such as the Russia–Ukraine war that began in 2022 and rising inflation. However, even in this coalition, policy coordination proved difficult due to disagreements within the government, particularly over anti-corruption measures, judicial reform, and economic policy, leading to a breakdown. As a result, ITN, which was ultimately given the mandate to form a government by the president, returned that mandate to President Rumen Radev, and a general election was held in June. Coalition talks among the parties failed, and another general election is planned for October.

The president being interviewed at an EPP summit (Photo: European People’s Party / Flickr [CC BY 2.0])

President vs. prime minister

The political narrative so far has focused on governments led by prime ministers, but as noted earlier, Bulgaria also has a president. The presidency was once largely ceremonial. In recent years, however, it has changed. In November 2016, Rumen Radev won the presidential election. Since Radev took office, some argue that the presidency has begun to function in practice, taking on an active role (A country of interim governments: Bulgaria’s political crisis and attempts to resolve it | OSW). A once-ceremonial office became a factor shaping politics. For example, during the large-scale protests in 2020, President Radev played a major role. A  search of the presidential office by prosecutors and police in connection with senior presidential officials suspected of corruption and abuse of authority in 2020 was taken by the public as an attack on President Radev, a vocal critic of the Borissov government, and was one of the triggers for the protests. No reports or articles confirming wrongdoing by senior presidential officials were found as a result of the search.

Since 2022 and the onset of the Russia–Ukraine war, friction between the president and the prime minister has intensified, with open mutual criticism. In the context of the war, the domestically oriented, pro-Russia-leaning President Radev has sought to solve energy and domestic issues through a domestic focus, while the internationally oriented Borissov government has aimed to support Ukraine and prioritize the creation of a euro monetary union as a top agenda item, reflecting an international focus.

The president attending a UN conference (Photo: Presidency of Bulgaria / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY 2.5 BG])

How, then, has President Radev—now in his second term—been able to stand up to the long-dominant Borissov governments and other prime ministers who had steadily consolidated power since 2009? The answer lies in Bulgaria’s political system. Although Bulgaria is formally a parliamentary republic, in recent years the difficulty of forming a stable majority has elevated the president’s role. Under normal constitutional conditions, the prime minister steers policy. But when government formation becomes difficult or parliament is dissolved, the president’s role becomes pivotal.

Until 2023, the constitution obliged the president to appoint a caretaker cabinet to govern until a new majority was formed after elections. The selection of the caretaker government, including the prime minister, fell under President Radev’s exclusive prerogative. In other words, Radev leveraged parliamentary instability to strengthen his political base and implement his policies. For example, just days after parliament was dissolved, he dismissed the management and board of the state gas company Bulgargaz and replaced them with close associates, and he dismissed all 28 regional governors appointed by the previous cabinet—an episode illustrating this power.

Another reason Radev was able to contend with the Borissov government lay in a peculiar constitutional provision regarding deadlines for forming a new cabinet. The constitution does not specify a deadline by which a new government must be appointed after elections, while at the same time stipulating an extremely short period—seven days—for a prime minister-designate to form a cabinet. Because the constitution does not define a deadline by which the president must nominate a prime minister, the president can effectively extend the tenure of a caretaker government.

However, constitutional amendments in 2023 under the GERB–PP coalition changed the president’s role. The revision reduced presidential powers by restricting the president’s freedom to appoint the caretaker prime minister; the appointee must now be chosen from among specific senior officials, as stipulated.

Election posters in the city (Photo: OSCE Parliamentary Assembly / Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0])

On the other hand, how did the Borissov governments—repeatedly called on by the public to resign—manage to maintain power? Analysts point to his long political experience and influence, as well as his record and leadership. At the same time, suspicions of corruption and wrongdoing persist. A concrete example was the forgery of ballot papers in 2013. Suppressing discontent over corruption and the government was also facilitated by the low level of media freedom. Between 2008 and 2020, Bulgaria fell from 59th to 111th in Reporters Without Borders’ World Press Freedom Index, the lowest score among EU member or candidate countries. Some argue this contributed to persistent corruption and even the weakening of democracy, a view that has been expressed.

Public opinion and people’s lives

In this unstable political climate, the repeated general elections—including the one scheduled for October 2024—and the associated turmoil have exhausted the public. This fatigue is clearly reflected in voter turnout. In April 2021, turnout was 50.6%, but by June 2024 it had fallen to 34.4%. Ironically, even as it becomes ever more necessary to capture public opinion amid political instability, turnout continues to decline. Some citizens have lost interest in politics altogether.

On the economic front—a partial cause of repeated protests—household purchasing and consumption have been restrained by rising inflation, and economic growth in 2023 was markedly low. The causes include the Russia–Ukraine war, the energy crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Bulgaria’s economy is highly export-oriented, including services (tourism), making it vulnerable to external shocks. It was also heavily dependent on Russia for natural gas imports and thus bore the brunt of EU trade sanctions against Russia.

A view of the cityscape in Sofia (Photo: Deensel / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY 2.0])

Summary

As is clear from the above, Bulgaria’s problems born of political instability are not merely political. Although President Radev is attempting political reforms, many current senior officials have ties to Borissov’s past cabinets and GERB, so it is hard to say that a sound political system has been established. While some citizens are disillusioned with the government’s political management, others remain hopeful about democracy. To meet these expectations, the president must continue to play roles in coordination and oversight of governance, the prime minister must manage politics responsibly, and the government must swiftly pursue policies that restore political stability and public trust.

※１　Following the 1991 constitutional reform, the Supreme Court was split into the Supreme Court of Cassation and the Supreme Administrative Court.

※２　For many years, Russia’s state-owned Gazprom had pointed to flaws in pricing for gas supplied to Ukraine and to nonpayment. The rift between Russia and Ukraine did not close, and from the end of 2008 to early 2009, Russia halted natural gas supplies to Ukraine.

Writer: Ito Runa

Graphics: Ayane Ishida

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