From June to October 2022, Pakistan was struck by devastating floods that submerged nearly one-third of the country. As a result, nearly 1,700 people were killed and close to 33 million people were displaced. The floods were so vast that, for the first time, the navy was deployed inland for rescue and relief operations. The crisis did not stop at the direct loss of life caused by the deluge itself; it also brought public health emergencies, food insecurity, shortages of drinking water for millions of displaced people, and gender-related issues. Moreover, the floods worsened the country’s economic crisis.

This article first explains the causes and circumstances behind the flooding and then discusses the role of climate change in triggering this multifaceted crisis. The latter half outlines the measures taken and concludes with reflections on the challenges that remain.

Scenes from the 2022 floods (Photo: EU Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid / Flickr [CC BY 2.0])

The Indus River system: nature’s floodplain

Pakistan is the world’s fifth most populous country, with a population exceeding 230 million. It is a semi-industrialized country whose main exports include textiles, surgical instruments, sporting goods, and services. Agriculture still accounts for a considerable share of economic output. Before independence in 1947, the regions that form Pakistan were under British colonial rule for about a century, and that influence extended beyond politics and culture to the economy and infrastructure across the region.

To understand why the 2022 floods became such a large-scale crisis and how they were triggered, it is important to understand Pakistan’s geography and topography. A key feature here is the Indus River basin, which supported one of the world’s oldest civilizations, the Indus Valley Civilization. Although much of the country’s climate ranges from arid to subtropical, the Indus river system flowing through the country’s plains has historically been the economic and social lifeline. Originating on the Tibetan Plateau in China and emptying into the Arabian Sea to the south, the Indus draws on numerous glaciers in northern Pakistan. In fact, with around 7,253 glaciers, Pakistan is home to the most glaciers in the world outside the polar regions.

Adjacent to the river’s course lie the plains where most of the population lives. As a result, Pakistan has constantly faced flood risk from increased river flow caused by glacial melt and during the heavy monsoon rains. With British colonization of the Indian subcontinent, infrastructure was built across the Indus basin to harness the river for the economy and agriculture. From colonial times to the present, the country—much of it arid—has focused on expanding water flows through vast networks of canals, aqueducts, tubewells, and dams to irrigate millions of hectares of farmland, an undertaking dubbed “the world’s largest irrigation system.”

This vast irrigation system across the Indus basin formed the foundation of the agricultural economy, expanding arable land and transforming Pakistan from largely arid terrain into a large-scale agricultural economy. Pakistan ranks within the world’s top 10 producers of crops such as cotton, wheat, rice, and sugarcane. Cotton production, in particular, underpins the country’s textile industry.

Farmers and a water channel (Photo: IWMI Flickr Photos / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0])

Built to intensify cultivation and boost yields, this vast irrigation system has become essential to feeding a growing population. However, it is increasingly unable to absorb the damage from floods and other extreme weather events linked to climate change. Floods and related disasters have grown more severe each year, culminating in the 2022 floods that left thousands dead and millions displaced.

Climate change and historic loss and damage

Amid the extensive destruction from the floods, the country’s climate minister stated that “global warming is an existential crisis the world faces, and Pakistan is ground zero.” Human-induced climate change is increasingly threatening the planet’s habitability and humanity’s future, but its impacts are not felt equally around the world. Low-income countries—often referred to as the Global South—have contributed little to the carbon emissions that cause climate change, yet remain more vulnerable to its impacts. Although Pakistan is the fifth most populous country, it contributes less than 1% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, yet ranks among the top 10 most vulnerable countries to climate change. High-income countries—often called the Global North—bear responsibility for most emissions: the G7 alone accounts for one-quarter of global emissions, and the G20 for nearly 80%.

Before the 2022 floods, the crisis began with a massive heatwave. In Sindh province in the south, temperatures reached 51°C from April to May, before summer had even begun, making it one of the hottest places on Earth at the time. The heat brought drought and water shortages, as well as destructive wildfires that burned Pakistan’s already sparse forests and harmed biodiversity. One estimate suggests that in Balochistan province in the south, 40% of forest area was burned.

This unprecedented, prolonged heatwave accelerated glacial melt in northern Pakistan, initially triggering Glacial Lake Outburst Flooding (GLOF) (※1) in the north. The number of such outburst events was three times the usual. These bursts destroyed bridges and infrastructure and endangered communities. Following the heatwave and glacial lake outbursts, the “monster monsoon” brought torrential rains from June to August, with rainfall increasing to more than 190% of the 30-year average nationwide and over 466% in Sindh province. These heavy and prolonged rains that began in June set the stage for the “megafloods” of 2022.

A glacier in northern Pakistan (Photo: Imran Shah / Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0])

Although the direct influence of climate change on these extreme events is not yet fully understood, climate scientists have found that it likely increased the intensity of monsoon rainfall by up to 50% nationwide and up to 75% in Sindh, where most of the damage occurred. Climate change is shortening the time between such extremes in countries like Pakistan. That is the essence of the crisis: as extremes occur much more frequently, not only rescue and recovery, but longer-term reconstruction is constrained.

Pakistan’s Ministry of Climate Change was first established in 2012, downgraded to a division the following year, and then revived as a federal ministry in 2015 in anticipation of the 2015 Paris Agreement (※2). The ministry has continued to urge high-income countries to take responsibility by honoring their pledges to assist low-income countries facing such extremes that climate change has helped cause.

The 2022 floods: multiple crises

As noted above, the floods caused loss of life, mass displacement, and impacted more than 15% of the country’s population. The already fragile economy suffered severe blows on top of multiple fiscal strains, and one estimate predicted that the floods would reduce GDP by 2.2% in 2022. The World Bank estimated that the economic losses exceeded USD 30 billion, with reconstruction needs alone topping USD 16 billion. These figures do not include the additional costs the country will have to bear for climate adaptation and building nationwide resilience to future events of this kind.

In the agricultural sector—the backbone of the economy—floods damaged 84% of agriculture and 82% of livestock in the most vulnerable provinces of Sindh, Balochistan, and parts of Punjab. More than 750,000 head of livestock died, and production of dairy and meat fell sharply. Moreover, output of key cash crops plummeted: cotton by 88%, sugarcane by 61%, and rice in Sindh by about 80%, according to projections. As a result, livelihoods were severely disrupted, and a food insecurity crisis is underway. The UN Development Programme (UNDP) estimates that a further 9 million people may be pushed into poverty, and the crisis is expected to persist even after the floodwaters recede.

In addition to food insecurity, the floods sparked a public health crisis as stagnant floodwaters in both rural and urban areas led to increases in water- and vector-borne diseases such as malaria, cholera, and dengue fever. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that more than 1,400 health facilities were damaged, limiting access to victims and the provision of basic health services. The crisis was particularly severe for women and children. In the affected regions, more than 500,000 pregnant women needed emergency maternal care. Loss of livelihoods and heightened vulnerability also fueled a mental health crisis among survivors, bringing “unprecedented mental health challenges” such as depression and trauma to the fore.

On top of the health crisis, the floods hit education systems already shaken by the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 27,000 schools were destroyed or damaged, and over 2 million children were kept out of school, according to estimates. In a country where a large portion of the population is illiterate, the challenge of access to education has deepened further.

The floods also worsened an economy already in a balance-of-payments crisis. Rising energy import costs pushed the petroleum import bill up by nearly 95% year-on-year, and inflation, already above 24% before the floods, continued to rise. The flood damage also hit the energy sector itself. As of 2022, thermal power plants account for more than 60% of total generation, followed by hydropower at 24%, nuclear at 12%, and renewables such as wind, solar, and bagasse at only 3%. Many power plants were damaged in the floods, triggering nationwide blackouts and power shortages across the country.

Scenes from the 2022 floods (Photo: Julien Harneis / Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0])

The climate crisis: global and local responses

As the crisis worsened and a national emergency was declared, Pakistan began calling for international assistance. Many countries and international organizations pledged support, and the UN launched a USD 160 million flash appeal in August 2022, later revised to USD 816 million in October as post-monsoon health and hunger crises emerged. In September 2022, UN Secretary-General António Guterres visited the flood-stricken areas and called the crisis “climate carnage,” further underscoring its magnitude to the outside world. He appealed for solidarity and support and urged wealthy nations to take responsibility, noting that the scale of the flooding was worsened by climate change driven by their actions.

Pakistan’s Parliament also approved the climate ministry–led Living Indus project, described as the country’s largest climate initiative. Its purpose is to protect the Indus basin’s civilizations, landscapes, and biodiversity from environmental degradation. The climate minister stated, “We must find ways to restore the Indus’s natural routes,” emphasizing the need for nature-based solutions and interventions to keep the basin from becoming prone to such catastrophic disasters and extremes. The project comprises several basin-wide interventions—including an Indus River Trust Fund, social enterprises for river clean-up, and climate-resilient agricultural practices—aimed at restoring and rehabilitating the Indus ecosystems and building climate resilience.

On the international stage, at the opening of the UN General Assembly in September 2022, several leaders spoke about the floods in Pakistan and called for stronger action on climate change. A donor conference was also planned to mobilize more funds for victims and to support Pakistan’s recovery. Held in January 2023 in Geneva as the “International Conference on Climate Resilient Pakistan,” donors pledged more than USD 9 billion for the country’s post-disaster recovery, reconstruction, and resilience program.

COP27 (2022) (Photo: Ministry of Environment – Rwanda / Flickr [CC BY-ND 2.0])

Beyond enabling relief and recovery for those affected inside Pakistan, the floods also influenced global debates on climate change. The most notable effect on climate action was seen at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in November 2022. The crisis in Pakistan brought the issue of “loss and damage” (loss & damage) to center stage. “Loss and damage” refers to permanent losses and repairable harms caused by climate change—mostly driven by major carbon emitters—whose impacts are borne by vulnerable people. The issue was not only added to the formal agenda at COP but, for the first time, led to an actual policy decision.

Low-income countries had demanded inclusion of loss and damage in climate negotiations for more than 30 years, but at COP27, under Egypt’s presidency and advocacy by the G-77 + China (※3), chaired by Pakistan, the issue finally gained momentum. Considered one of the most contentious topics in climate talks, high-income countries such as the EU and the United States had long resisted creating a separate fund for loss and damage, instead arguing that existing climate finance mechanisms should be used for this purpose. However, intense negotiations at COP27, with Pakistan playing a central role, ultimately yielded a compromise. A standalone loss and damage fund was created—hailed as a historic outcome of COP27 and applauded by low-income countries. While this was a significant step toward climate justice, most key decisions on implementation were postponed to the following year’s COP in Dubai.

Challenges and the road ahead: the so-called Global South

The 2022 floods disproportionately affected the most vulnerable people in Pakistan—the poorest and most marginalized. Protecting and empowering those in vulnerable positions must therefore be central to any effort addressing a challenge of this magnitude. Policies must aim to direct investments and technologies for climate-resilient infrastructure to the regions and communities that need them most. Experts continue to emphasize the need to incorporate vulnerability and local perspectives into climate action and the fight against future disasters.

Victims of the 2022 floods (Photo: EU Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid / Flickr [CC BY 2.0])

Improving climate governance and putting climate resilience, adaptation, urban planning, and climate-resilient infrastructure design at the core of administration is a responsibility for Pakistan’s governance. This requires, through consensus at national, provincial, and local levels, the implementation of large-scale national climate resilience projects, sustained across administrations with consistency. A World Bank report recommends five priority areas for building climate resilience in Pakistan: 1) transforming agriculture and food systems toward climate-smart, resilient agriculture; 2) better urban planning and resilient cities; 3) a transition to sustainable energy generation and public transport systems; 4) fair and equitable investments in human capital; and 5) scaling up finance and investment mobilization for climate action.

All of these proposals require not only better planning, implementation, and domestic governance in Pakistan, but—considering responsibility for historic loss and damage—major contributions from high-income countries to mobilize resources to protect vulnerable communities in low-income countries like Pakistan. However, simply expanding support as compensation is not enough. What is needed is a pivot in the existing international governance system—particularly in international financial institutions and multilateral development banks such as the IMF and the World Bank.

One example is the Bridgetown Initiative proposed by the Prime Minister of Barbados. The initiative aims to make the global financial system fit for climate action. Specifically, it seeks to expand fiscal space so low-income countries facing climate crises can access climate finance and investment, reduce the capital cost of such investments, and make the global financial system more resilient for them when natural disasters and crises strike.

Progress on key policies aimed at slowing or stopping climate change—such as the 2030 Agenda (※4) and the Paris Agreement—remains slow, and some scientists argue that with the world still dependent on fossil fuels and emissions not falling sufficiently, achieving the 1.5°C target (※5) by 2030 is not realistic. The UN Environment Programme estimates that even with pledges and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the reduction amounts to only about 1% of projected 2030 emissions, putting the world on a path not to 1.5°C but to a 2.4–2.6°C increase by the end of the century.

Pakistan’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs (left) speaking at a conference on climate change (2022) (Photo: BMW Foundation Herbert Quandt / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0])

It is therefore clear that the 2022 floods will not be the last climate disaster Pakistan faces; if anything, the situation may be worsening. Climate change is increasing the scale, frequency, and intensity of extreme weather events. This also means less time and fewer resources to prepare for the next disaster. Without investments in climate-resilient infrastructure and adaptation measures, the outlook is bleak.

This trend confronts not only Pakistan but all lower-income countries, many located in the Global South: they face increasingly destructive impacts of climate change while lacking the fiscal capacity to strengthen resilience. The establishment of a loss and damage fund and growing demands for climate justice from high-income countries are positive steps, but uncertainties remain about how such funds and other measures will function, their mechanisms, and their limits. For other types of climate finance, such as adaptation finance (※6), low-income countries still face high risks and costs, leaving them less attractive to investors.

Thus, the path forward for Pakistan—and for low-income countries across the Global South—is a comprehensive approach focused on climate justice and on international financial systems and resource mobilization. This should be achieved through transformative reforms by high-income countries and international financial institutions on the one hand, and through domestic governance that repairs, builds, and plans resilient infrastructure to directly tackle fiscal, planning, design, and infrastructure challenges on the other. “Mitigation” (※7), which makes up most existing climate finance, alone cannot solve the crises facing countries like Pakistan. But by pooling efforts through multilateral financing and domestic governance reforms to improve adaptation and resilience, countries like Pakistan can confront climate challenges and hold out hope of reducing future climate risks.

※1　Glacial lake outburst floods occur when lakes formed by glacial melt suddenly burst or release large volumes of water.

※2 The Paris Agreement is an international treaty adopted at COP21 in 2015, aiming to reduce carbon emissions, limit global warming to 1.5°C, and establish mechanisms for finance and technology for climate action.

※3 The G77 (+ China) is an intergovernmental organization of low-income countries that negotiates collectively in international forums to protect their common interests from those of advanced economies.

※4 The 2030 Agenda refers to the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted in 2015 to be achieved by 2030.

※5 The 1.5°C target is a key element of the Paris Agreement that aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels to protect the world from the most destructive aspects of climate change.

※6 Adaptation finance refers to climate finance invested in building resilience and adapting to reduce the harms and adverse impacts of climate change.

※7 Mitigation finance refers to climate finance invested in reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases to mitigate climate change.

Writer: Shah Sardar Ahmed

Translation: Natsumi Motoura

Graphics: Yudai Sekiguchi