Since around June 2021, migrants and refugees, mainly from Iraq, whom Belarus initially accepted, have been massing in the border area with Lithuania. In response, from around August, Lithuania began building a steel wall along its border with Belarus. However, experts have also criticized Lithuania, arguing that the wall aims to block the movement of migrants and refugees. Until now, Lithuania lacked a system to receive migrants and process asylum applications, which some view as reflecting its reluctance to accept them.

While the failure to promote admission policies due to negative attitudes toward migrants and refugees, as in this case, is itself seen as a problem, Lithuania is also facing a worsening outflow of its own citizens abroad. This is an issue common to the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. This article explores the population challenges facing the Baltic states and their relationship to the reception of migrants and refugees.

Children holding the Lithuanian flag (Photo: 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cav Div / Flickr [CC BY-ND 2.0])

What are the Baltic states?

The Baltic states are located on the eastern shore of the Baltic Sea, and from north to south are Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—three countries. Their official languages are Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian respectively. Estonian belongs to the Finno-Ugric language family, related to Finnish, while Latvian and Lithuanian belong to the Baltic branch of the Indo-European language family. 

Many Estonians and Latvians trace their ancestry to the Balts. People identifying as Balts settled across a wide area spanning what is now Russia, Belarus, Latvia, Lithuania, and northern Poland. In today’s Baltic region, numerous small kingdoms and independent districts existed from around the 5th century, each inhabited by different ethnic groups, but from around the 8th century Scandinavian Vikings, and from around the 10th century East Slavs centered in what is now Belarus, invaded and conquered the area. 

In the territories of present-day Estonia and Latvia, knights were sent from the Nordic region from the late 12th century to spread Christianity, and later the Danish Empire and others ruled. Meanwhile, Lithuania’s forests and marshes made outside incursions difficult, allowing Lithuania to maintain its independence. In the mid-13th century, multiple ethnic groups settled within Lithuanian territory were unified, and Lithuania’s political system was formed. The Grand Duchy of Lithuania, which brought under its control vast territories centered on the East Slavic lands including parts of present-day Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia, at one time built the largest kingdom in Europe. However, amid succession disputes and intensifying pressure from the knightly orders, in the late 14th century the Lithuanian king acceded as a co-ruler with Poland, forming a loose alliance. The resulting Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth continued its eastern expansion and extended its territory to the Black Sea, reaching its zenith. In Estonia and Latvia, after Denmark’s withdrawal, internal conflicts were frequent, but in the 17th century Sweden seized and ruled the entire area. 

By the mid-17th century, the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth suppressed peasant uprisings led by the Cossacks, who had been guarding the borders, and intensified war with Sweden over the Livonia region (spanning present-day southern Estonia to northern Latvia), straining its finances. In the early 18th century, the Great Northern War broke out between Sweden and Russia over dominance in the Baltic, and the Commonwealth, weakened after being drawn into the conflict, was set on a path of decline. It was then partitioned three times, and with the third partition in 1795 the entire region became Russian territory and disappeared from the map. During the Great Northern War, most of Estonia and Latvia also shifted from Swedish to Russian control, making the whole of the present-day Baltic region a dependency of Russia.

Map of the Baltic states

To advance Russification in the territories it ruled, the Russian Empire introduced Russian Orthodoxy and enforced the use of Cyrillic script used for the Russian language. From around the mid-19th century, a sense of belonging to autonomous regions corresponding to each of today’s three Baltic states emerged among local residents, and ethnic movements toward independence intensified. Following the Russian Revolution in 1917, the three Baltic states declared independence in succession. 

In 1922, the Soviet Union was formed and a planned economy was pushed forward. By achieving rapid industrialization and collectivization of agriculture, the USSR became a great power. World War II then began, and based on the secret protocol of the Nazi–Soviet Non-Aggression Pact, the USSR occupied the three Baltic states in 1940. Under Soviet occupation, communism was introduced and nationalization of property began. The postwar economy was integrated into the Soviet system of planned development, and output in each sector increased substantially. However, the Soviets cracked down on guerrilla movements resisting agricultural collectivization and assimilation policies, and massively deported residents of the Baltic region to forced labor facilities in Siberia. The number of deaths from these actions is estimated to have reached 95,000 among Estonians, 125,000 among Latvians, and 310,000 among Lithuanians between 1946 and 1953.

When Mikhail Gorbachev came to power in the USSR in 1985, democratization movements gained momentum, including guarantees of freedom of speech. The USSR collapsed in December 1991, and with this all three achieved independence and joined the United Nations. Each developed new constitutions, currencies, and markets, but initially their economies were unstable. From 2000 onward, large-scale reforms and liberalization began to bear fruit, and they achieved remarkable economic growth. In 2004, all 3 joined both the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU).

Today, Estonia’s key industries include machinery manufacturing and timber, and as a world leader in the digitalization of administrative procedures, its IT sector is attracting attention. Latvia has long been a key transport hub linking East and West, with a thriving logistics industry, as well as wood and metal processing as major sectors. Lithuania’s main industries are manufacturing, including food processing and chemical products.

Statues of Lenin and Stalin in Tallinn, the capital of Estonia (Photo: Felipe Tofani / Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0])

Population decline and migration

After independence, the three Baltic states achieved economic growth but at the same time faced population decline. In particular, Latvia and Lithuania are experiencing the fastest population decline in the EU. Latvia’s population in 2021 was 1.9 million, a sharp decrease from 2.36 million in 2000. Lithuania has the largest population among the three Baltic states, with 2.79 million as of 2021, but that is down about 710,000 from 3.5 million in 2000, also indicating a steep decline. Estonia’s population is currently 1.33 million, the smallest among the three, and given that it was 1.4 million in 2000, that is a decrease of 70,000. Looking at the period since 2013, the population has been slightly increasing, suggesting that the decline has stabilized. Even so, although the urgency is lower than in Latvia and Lithuania, Estonia is also at risk of population decline, like the other two.

Why is the population decreasing in the three Baltic states? One reason is low fertility. When the fertility rate falls below 2.1, a region’s population is said to decline, but in 2021 the fertility rates were 1.6, 1.7, and 1.7 for Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, respectively—values that imply population decline in all 3. In addition, mortality rates in the Baltic states are significantly higher than the European average. Lithuania in particular is among the European countries with the highest mortality from cardiovascular disease, and its generally low health standards have been noted. All 3 countries also rank among the top 10 with the highest suicide rates, which is listed as a factor affecting mortality.

Another factor is that the number of people leaving exceeds the number entering. Looking at Lithuania’s total international migration from 2009 to 2019, the number of people leaving Lithuania exceeded arrivals by about 271,000. In Latvia as well, due to emigration for work since 1990, the country’s population has decreased by about 500,000 to date. Estonia shows a different pattern: in the early 2000s, more people emigrated than immigrated, but since 2014 arrivals have outnumbered departures, positively influencing the population. In 2020, there were 7,320 departures versus 10,390 arrivals.

Many of those leaving are thought to be migrating for economic reasons. With independence and the establishment of market economies, layoffs surged with the dismantling and downsizing of state enterprises, reducing employment and prompting people to go abroad in search of work. The transition to a free market and capitalism advanced, but the shift from state-owned to private enterprises exacerbated corruption, hampering economic development. In 1992, Lithuania’s GDP fell 21% from the previous year, and continued economic decline in the Baltic states is believed to be related to large-scale population movements.

Latvian Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš (Photo: European Parliament / Flickr [CC BY 2.0])

When all 3 countries joined the EU in 2004 and free movement within the EU became possible, mobility accelerated, and people moved to countries with higher minimum wages such as the UK and Germany. The trend remains strong: in 2020, among destinations for emigration from Latvia, Germany accounted for 29%, the UK 24%, and the Netherlands 13%. Among emigrants from Lithuania, 67.4% left for EU countries, with 34.6% choosing the UK, followed by Germany at 8.8% and Norway at 8.1%. Although the economies recovered from around 1994 and, in the 21st century, all 3 boasted average year-on-year growth of over 9%, the minimum wages in the Baltic states remain low. In 2020, while the minimum monthly wage in Germany and France was 1,530 euros or more, even Lithuania, with the highest wages among the three, had a minimum monthly wage of 607 euros.

Responses to the population issue

Broadly speaking, three main approaches to population decline are measures to counter low birthrates, support for the return of nationals, and policies to admit migrants and refugees. What measures are being taken in the Baltic states?

First, let’s look at measures to raise fertility rates by helping parents balance childbirth/childcare and work, focusing on maternity and parental leave systems. In Estonia, mothers are entitled to 140 days (20 weeks) of maternity leave and fathers to 10 days, and parents can additionally share 435 days (about 1.5 years) of parental leave. In Latvia, mothers are granted up to 18 weeks of maternity leave and fathers one month. In Lithuania, mothers receive 18 weeks and fathers 4 weeks, and parents can then share up to 156 weeks of leave (until the child turns three). While some European countries offer no leave at all for fathers, all three have comparatively well-developed systems for maternity and parental leave.

A streetscape in Latvia (Photo: Diego Delso / Flickr [CC BY-SA 3.0])

However, concrete policies to support childbirth and childcare differ among the 3 countries. In Estonia, in July 2017 an additional benefit was introduced for families having a third child, and over the following 2 years, the number of third births increased by over 20% compared to before the policy. Childbirth costs are also free in Estonia. In contrast, although Latvia has similar allowances, demographers point out that the country’s family policies are lagging. For households with 3 children, Estonia provides 520 euros per month, while Latvia provides 134 euros, which cannot be called generous welfare. Lithuania has no particularly notable measures either. 

Next, let’s look at policies to bring back nationals who have left. Generally, returnees educated in other languages and with advanced skills and experience are considered immediate assets. For this reason, in the three Baltic states, municipalities, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and investors support local returnees and strengthen cooperation with companies that hire them. In Estonia, a grant system has been established to support Estonian researchers returning from abroad.

 Estonia also pioneered in 2014 an e-Residency program that allows people worldwide, including its own nationals, to engage with its economy virtually. Anyone in the world can obtain Estonian e-residency, enabling them to open bank accounts, establish corporations, and use electronic signatures. Under this scheme, users can start businesses without residing in Estonia. Following this, Lithuania launched an e-residency program in January 2021 as well. As it is still in its early stages, Latvia’s e-residency program has more restrictions compared to Estonia’s. While Estonia’s can be applied for entirely online, in the case of Lithuania one must travel locally to apply and collect the card, among other issues. Still, if the systems can be enhanced, alongside Estonia’s they could help support the return of nationals. If, thanks to economic incentives, Estonia and Lithuania come to be chosen as places to do business by people worldwide, including those who have left these countries, that could drive economic growth and, ultimately, increase immigration to the three Baltic states.

Digital ID card and e-residency card (Photo: EU2017EE Estonian Presidency / Flickr [CC BY 2.0]])

The difficult acceptance of migrants and refugees

As we have seen, if fertility were to surge or the economy to boom and many of those who left were to return immediately, the population issue might be resolved—but given current trends, that is unrealistic. Therefore, the quickest-acting solution to population decline is to increase the number of migrants and refugees admitted. There is also the argument that accepting migrants and refugees is necessary for economic growth, not just as a response to population decline. Because migrants and refugees often arrive as families including children, they can help mitigate falling birthrates and a shrinking workforce over time. 

However, the three Baltic states are not proactive about accepting migrants and refugees. A major reason is said to be wariness toward them among the public. Among those aiming for the Baltic states are refugees fleeing conflict and a certain number of people from other former Soviet republics as well. Public reactions to them vary. Toward people seeking refuge from conflict zones in the Middle East and North Africa, preconceived notions seem to loom large: fears stemming from baseless prejudices that newcomers might carry out terrorism, doubts about the credibility of claims of persecution, and even overt racism. Such stereotype-based concerns are said to be rife on social media. Given such public opinion, actively promoting acceptance policies carries high political risk. 

In addition, not only do migrants from outside the EU arrive, but impoverished people living in non-EU Eastern European countries who seek work may come as migrants to the economically better-off three Baltic states. Yet even toward these countries—despite deep ties as fellow former Soviet states—discomfort is sometimes expressed. This is attributed to the lingering memory of assimilation policies during the periods of Russian and Soviet rule, which fosters wariness toward the influx of languages and cultures other than one’s own.

Migrants and refugees heading for Europe (Photo: Jim Forest / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0])

Moreover, regardless of whether migrants come from outside the EU, differences in the languages they use may amplify cultural divides. Migrants from Western Europe tend to send their children to English-language schools, while migrants from former Soviet states tend to send theirs to Russian-language schools instead. But for admission to domestic universities, speakers of the official languages—Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian—are at an advantage. When language and education are thus segmented, not only is it difficult to build social networks and common cultural perspectives, but differences in educational attainment also lead to income gaps, and widening economic disparities lead to residential segregation—creating a chain reaction that worsens social separation, a concern for the future.

That said, systems to accept migrants and refugees are to some extent in place. Estonia has adopted strategies to achieve integration with migrants across language, law, politics, society, and the economy. For example, in 2015 it launched a free language education program for newly arrived migrants. It also has a system providing two years of free housing and income support for all refugees, and offers the same unemployment and welfare benefits as Estonian citizens. Latvia also has a facility where asylum seekers can receive education and learn Latvian during the roughly 3-month period until their status is decided. 

However, despite building such systems, it cannot be said that refugee reception has been successful in practice. When these support periods end, those recognized as refugees obtain permanent residence and live in the Baltic states, but many are unable to find jobs and leave within a few years.

An elementary school classroom in Estonia (Photo: Arno Mikkor / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY 2.0])

Public support is necessary for active immigration policies, and each country must work to dispel public wariness toward migrants, but the situation remains difficult. Estonia aims to attract foreign workers and enhance its appeal as a destination, and is said to be the most forward-looking of the three in accepting migrants and refugees. Even so, across the three countries there is not yet a widespread recognition that immigration policy is important for long-term national growth. In Latvia, a social campaign has been underway since 2015 to promote the appeal of interculturalism and diversity through events and workshops and by placing advertisements in libraries, schools, and on the streets. If such efforts spread, negative views of migrants may be gradually dispelled.

Conclusion

This article has examined the population issues shared by the three Baltic states. Alongside measures to counter low birthrates and policies to bring back nationals, accepting migrants and refugees is key—but can acceptance be accelerated by overcoming the barrier of public wariness? The three countries will need to learn from each other’s policies and engage over the long term.

Writer: Manami Hasegawa

Graphics: Mayuko Hanafusa

Follow @GNV_tweets