Somalia is a country in East Africa, in the region commonly known as the Horn of Africa. In Somalia, the presidential election originally scheduled for 2021–2–8 was not held. As a result, without choosing a new president, the term of the incumbent president, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (commonly known as Farmaajo), expired, triggering a political crisis. 2 months later, in 2021–4, the lower house decided to extend the president’s term by 2 years, but the upper house rejected it. Facing broad opposition at home and abroad, Farmaajo announced in the same month that he would drop the plan to extend his term.

There has not been a government capable of governing all of Somalia since 1990. Even under the current Somali government, control is limited outside the capital. In addition, the country has anti-government forces, and there is foreign intervention as well. What exactly is happening in Somalia today?

Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta (right), with Farmaajo next to him. (Photo: AMISOM Public Information / Flickr[CC0 1.0])

History of Somalia

The Federal Republic of Somalia is a country bordering the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden, located to the east of Ethiopia and Kenya. In practice, the Federal Republic of Somalia consists of 5 federal member states: Jubaland, South West State of Somalia, Hirshabelle, Galmudug, and Puntland. In addition to these states, Somaliland, which declared independence in 1991 and functions as a de facto independent country, is located in the north. As of 2019, the total population of Somalia is about 15.4 million. Languages used in Somalia include the official languages Somali and Arabic, as well as Italian and English. The vast majority of Somalis practice Sunni Islam. While most of the population identifies as Somali, ethnic divisions are relatively few. A distinctive feature, however, is the presence of clans. Defined by blood ties, clans influence many decisions in Somali life. Among them, the four clans Hawiye, Darod, Dir, and Rahanweyn wield significant influence.

Present-day Somalia was once ruled by multiple sultans (※1） and was an important hub of international trade. Their influence extended into what are now eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and northern Kenya, and many people who identify as Somali still live in these areas. In the 1870s, the region corresponding to present-day Somalia came under successive colonial rule. After the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869, imperial powers advanced into Somalia. As a result, France colonized the area around the port of Djibouti at the entrance to the Red Sea, Britain colonized the area facing the Gulf of Aden to its east, and Italy colonized the vast area from the Indian Ocean coast inland. Ethiopia also advanced into Somalia, colonizing the west.

Subsequently, in 1960 British Somaliland and Italian Somalia became independent separately and then merged to form the Somali Republic. In 1969, Major General Mohamed Siad Barre staged a military coup, became president, and seized power. Embracing nationalism, Barre invaded Ethiopia’s eastern region, where many Somali people lived. This exacerbated the existing border conflict and escalated into the Ogaden War starting in 1977, which also reflected Cold War U.S.-Soviet rivalry. Somalia was defeated and signed a peace agreement with Ethiopia in 1988.

Social and economic exhaustion from this war increased public dissatisfaction with Barre’s dictatorship, and anti-government activities expanded from the 1980s. Barre harshly repressed the opposition, but it continued to grow, and he eventually controlled only the capital, Mogadishu. In 1990, rebel forces entered the capital; the following year, Barre was ousted and an interim government was formed. However, due to internal conflicts, the interim president was driven out of the capital. Meanwhile, the northern region—former British Somaliland—frustrated with policies favoring the south, unilaterally declared independence that same year. Although not recognized by other states, Somaliland has functioned as a de facto independent country ever since. In 1998, the Puntland region in northern Somalia also declared autonomy.

With autonomous authorities emerging in various areas and no unified government, multiple warlords (※2） formed spheres of influence in southern Somalia and fought over them. Although there was intervention for some time by UN Peacekeeping Operations (Peacekeeping Operations: PKO) and U.S. forces, the conflict did not subside. In the meantime, a union of courts based on Islamic law emerged in Somalia. This union, called the Islamic Courts Union (Islamic Courts Union : ICU), was formed in 2000 by Islamic legal scholars who sought to restore order and national unity. While gathering support from many citizens, the ICU armed itself and, in 2006–7, drove the warlords out of the capital, Mogadishu. As a result, southern Somalia was temporarily unified. However, Ethiopia, viewing the ICU as a threat, launched attacks, and the ICU was dismantled in 12 of the same year. Subsequently, some of the ICU’s youth militants withdrew to southern Somalia, aiming to establish an Islamic state in Somalia, and organized Al-Shabaab, which began guerrilla attacks against Ethiopian forces. In 2007, the African Union (African Union: AU） decided to deploy the African Union Mission in Somalia (African Union Mission in Somalia: AMISOM) to help stabilize the country and support state-building. Composed of troops from Uganda, Burundi, and others, AMISOM gradually expelled Al-Shabaab from the capital and other major cities.

Beyond AMISOM, multiple countries have carried out military interventions in Somalia. Neighboring Kenya, citing the need to prevent attacks by armed groups on its territory, intervened militarily in 2011 and occupied parts of southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab retaliated by carrying out terror attacks inside Kenya. Both the Ethiopian forces, which had once withdrawn from Somalia, and the Kenyan forces were eventually incorporated into AMISOM. The United States has also viewed Al-Shabaab as a threat and has conducted military operations, including airstrikes against Al-Shabaab in Somalia, continuously since 2001.

Uganda’s Defense Forces commander delivering a speech (Photo: AMISOM Public Information/Flickr[CC0 1.0])

Because insecurity prevented the Somali government from exercising control on land and at sea, and because of the presence of foreign fishing vessels engaging in illegal fishing, pirates began to appear off the coast of Somalia. Rapidly increasing in the early 21st century, pirates attacked commercial ships off Somalia. As damage to foreign vessels grew, in 2008 the United Nations, the European Union (European Union: EU), the AU, and the Arab League met to discuss the issue, and the UN Security Council adopted a resolution authorizing the use of force. This reduced the visible number of incidents by pirates. However, fundamental problems such as governance, poverty, and illegal fishing in Somali waters have not been resolved.

Since 2000, warlords and other local power brokers have begun holding peace conferences and talks. As a result, in 2004 the Transitional Federal Government (Transitional Federal Government: TFG） was established. In practice, however, the TFG lacked the power to effectively control all of Somalia. The president’s leadership was weak, members of parliament were selected from elites who had participated in peace talks, and there was widespread corruption within the administration. This transitional federal government continued until the adoption of the constitution in 2012. The constitution adopted in 2012 then established the Federal Government of Somalia (Federal Government of Somalia: FGS）. A formal central government was thus born, aiming to actually govern Somalia.

The birth of a central government?

With the federal government established, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected as the new president. After his 4-year term ended, Farmaajo was elected in 2017. However, during his term, conflicts between the Somali government and the federal member states deepened. The member states have a degree of autonomy and maintain their own police and security forces. Among them, Puntland and Jubaland are particularly autonomy-minded, and their clashes with the central government have repeatedly led to political confrontations.

As noted, clans are embedded in Somali social life. In politics, there is a structure known as the 4.5 clan structure, a system that determines the allocation of parliamentary seats. Each of the 4 largest clans is allocated a share of 1, while the seats for all other minor clans together are allocated as 0.5. The seats of the transitional government launched in 2004 were also allocated based on this clan structure. The clan system also affects the electoral system. Somalia’s current national elections use an indirect, clan-based system: first, clan elders select delegates; then the delegates elect members of the lower house; and finally, the lower house elects the president—an arrangement that, by its nature, makes it difficult to broadly reflect the popular will. The last direct election in Somalia was in 1969, more than 50 years ago.

Voting during the 2017 federal parliamentary elections (Photo: AMISOM Public Information / Flickr[CC0 1.0])

Ahead of the election in 2/2021, discussions were held in 2020–9 between the Somali government and the member states regarding the electoral system, and talks moved toward holding the first direct elections in half a century. However, the Somali government and the member states failed to reach agreement on how to carry out the election. This disagreement over the electoral method became an obstacle to holding the vote, leading to the end of the president’s term without a successor being chosen.

Accumulating issues

Somalia faces many other problems. One of the major issues is Al-Shabaab. Although Al-Shabaab was expelled from urban areas by AMISOM and others, it still retains significant influence in rural areas. Al-Shabaab’s threat prevents voting—indispensable for democratic elections—from being conducted safely. In 2020–4, it issued a statement declaring that all those involved in voting would be targets of attack, thereby disrupting elections and voting behavior. During the 2016 and 2017 elections, it actually killed multiple elders and delegates.

The relationship between the central government and Somaliland is also a critical issue. Somaliland declared independence in 1991, but the Somali government has not recognized it, and they have been at odds for decades. Although there have been repeated dialogues toward reconciliation, fundamental differences remain over Somaliland’s sovereignty and claims, and no agreement has been reached. Talks resumed in 2020 after 5 years, but the issue remains unresolved.

The problems are not confined within the country. Relations with neighboring states are highly unstable. The Somali government is in dispute with Kenya over the maritime border. In 2020, Somalia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized Kenya for interfering in its internal affairs and cut diplomatic ties. In response, Kenya indicated it would withdraw the forces it had deployed in Somalia under AMISOM to fight Al-Shabaab. A Kenyan withdrawal would reduce its influence in Somalia, potentially increasing that of Ethiopia, another neighbor, which has maintained a relatively friendly relationship with President Farmaajo. However, with the outbreak of conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region in 2020, Ethiopia withdrew part of its forces from Somalia. Furthermore, in 2021–1 U.S. forces withdrew from Somalia, and AMISOM is scheduled to end in 2021–12. The political and military vacuum created by these developments has raised concerns that Al-Shabaab will gain momentum and pose an even greater threat.

A hotel in Mogadishu destroyed by fighting (Photo: AMISOM Public Information / Flickr[CC0 1.0])

Tensions among Middle Eastern countries have also affected Somalia. When Farmaajo took office, Qatar and its Gulf neighbors were in a state of tension, and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates（United Arab Emirates: UAE） urged allies to cut ties with Qatar. Amid this, Farmaajo declared neutrality with respect to Qatar. There were various factors, including solidarity with Turkey and Qatar, which provided economic support. However, this ultimately provoked the UAE, Somalia’s largest trading partner, and led to a deterioration in relations. In response to Farmaajo’s actions, the UAE increased support for federal member states and Somaliland that opposed the central government, further deepening divisions between the government and the member states.

Toward political stability

As we have seen, there are many issues that must be resolved for Somalia to emerge from its acute political crisis. As mentioned at the beginning, the resolution to extend the president’s term in response to the failure to hold elections has been scrapped. Can the election, postponed due to lack of agreement, actually be conducted? Although the timing of the next election is undecided, legal preparations will likely be necessary to realize one-person-one-vote direct elections. To that end, it will be necessary to improve the situation of power-sharing based on the federal government, member states, and the clan structure, and cooperate to establish an electoral system. In addition, Somalia will have to respond to Al-Shabaab and work to improve relations with Somaliland and neighboring countries. Enabling the whole of Somalia to function as a single country and building good relations with domestic and external actors may be the first step toward overcoming the current political crisis.

※1: One of the titles for monarchs in the Islamic world

※2: A warlord is an armed force that pursues private interests. They emerge in areas where the government’s governing capacity is weak and become the de facto rulers of those areas. Unlike anti-government forces, they do not aim to overthrow the government and avoid clashes with government troops. By monopolizing the security environment in their areas of control and operation, they can also control economic activity and derive profits.

Writer: Hisahiro Furukawa

Graphics: Yumi Ariyoshi

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