On January 15, 2026, presidential and parliamentary elections were held in Uganda. As a result, it has been reported that the incumbent, Yoweri Museveni (81), won. Museveni has already maintained his grip on power for 40 years and is one of the world’s longest-serving heads of state.
However, these elections were held under an atmosphere of fear and repression. According to surveys by Afrobarometer, more than 40% of the population expressed concern about election-related violence in the country. Such public anxiety is backed by a report from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), which sounded the alarm over intensified crackdowns on dissenting voices. According to that report, 160 cases of enforced disappearance were recorded in 2025 alone, and multiple opposition figures and journalists were beaten or arrested.
Having seized power as president in 1986, Museveni has continued to rule through constitutional amendments and highly contested elections. This article first gives an overview of Uganda, then reviews its precolonial and colonial history. It then analyzes post-independence developments, Museveni’s politics, and the political and economic challenges the country currently faces.
President Museveni of Uganda, who declared reelection in January 2026 (Photo: GovernmentZA / Flickr [CC BY-ND 2.0])
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Overview of Uganda
Uganda is a landlocked country located in central East Africa. It covers an area of 241,038 square kilometers and borders South Sudan to the north, Kenya to the east, Tanzania and Rwanda to the south, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to the west. In the south, it shares Lake Victoria, the world’s second-largest freshwater lake, with neighboring countries, making Uganda part of the African Great Lakes region. With Lake Victoria and numerous other lakes and rivers, Uganda possesses natural conditions well suited to agriculture.
Owing to these conditions, Uganda’s economy depends primarily on agriculture. According to figures for 2024, agriculture accounted for 24% of Uganda’s gross domestic product (GDP), and 72% of the labor force was employed in the sector. The main sources of foreign exchange are gold, coffee, tourism, and remittances from Ugandans living abroad. In addition to gold, the country is rich in copper, cobalt, iron, and rare earth elements. Uganda also has oil resources and, in partnership with French and Chinese oil companies, has plans to begin exporting crude oil by the end of 2026. However, it cannot be said that these natural resources are being adequately redistributed to the population. In fact, over 90% of Ugandans live below the so‑called ethical poverty line of US$7.40 per day. (※1)
Uganda’s population is estimated at about 50 million, with half under the age of 18, making it one of the countries with the highest proportion of young people in the world. Its people belong to multiple ethnic groups, the main ones being the Baganda, Banyankole, Basoga, Bakiga, Iteso, Langi, Bagisu, Acholi, and Lugbara. The official languages are English and Swahili. In terms of religion, Christianity (Roman Catholic, Anglican, and Protestant) accounts for more than 75% of the population, followed by Islam at 13%, with indigenous beliefs also present.
Precolonial and colonial era
For thousands of years, the African Great Lakes region has been a meeting point for Bantu-speaking farming communities and Nilotic pastoralists. In the 15th century, the fusion of these peoples led to the formation of the Kingdom of Bunyoro, the first major kingdom in what is now Uganda. Over the next two centuries, Bunyoro’s armies extended their control over much of what is now known as central Uganda. These territories were governed by officials subordinate to the Omukama (king) of Bunyoro.
In the late 18th century, amid conflict, the governor of Buganda declared independence from Bunyoro, and this emerging kingdom soon prospered as a powerful force. The kingdoms of Ankole and Toro followed Buganda in asserting their independence. These three kingdoms modeled their social and political structures on the mother state. Buganda was ruled by a king advised by a council of nobles; land was distributed to nobles and cultivated by peasants. Cattle were symbols of authority and were owned by the aristocracy. The state was maintained by a standing army and conscripted soldiers under the king’s command. However, Buganda never fully subjugated the surrounding states.
In 1862, Europeans searching for the source of the Nile reached Buganda. King Mutesa I (1852–1884), who had an interest in Christianity, welcomed Protestant and Roman Catholic missionaries. With its fertile soil, the region became a prime target in the European “Scramble for Africa” by 1890. After obtaining Germany’s recognition of its authority over the area, Britain secured Buganda by force and used Buganda’s army to conquer neighboring regions. In 1894, the kingdoms of Buganda, Bunyoro, Toro, Busoga, and Ankole, along with several chiefdoms, were consolidated into a British protectorate. The name “Uganda” was adopted to refer to this territory.
A series of agreements in the early 20th century, particularly the 1900 Buganda Agreement, formalized colonial rule. This agreement guaranteed the Kingdom of Buganda a special status and preserved the monarchy and its social institutions. The colonial economy relied on cash crops such as cotton and later coffee, with most of the profits siphoned off to Britain. Asian laborers, especially of Indian origin, were brought in, entrenching an exploitative economic structure.
In the 1950s, Buganda unsuccessfully demanded secession, and in 1962 a federal constitution was established. In the 1962 elections, the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) won, and Apollo Milton Obote became prime minister. On October 9 of the same year, Uganda achieved independence.
A tea plantation, one of Uganda’s main cash crops (Photo: Garrett Ziegler / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0])
Political history after independence
Independence freed Uganda from foreign rule, but tensions between the central government and traditional monarchs became a major factor destabilizing the country in the post-independence period. In 1966, Obote sent the army into Buganda, forcing King Edward Mutesa II—who, while largely symbolic, was also the first president—into exile. He then promulgated a new republican constitution that formally abolished the monarchy and the federal constitution. This made Obote the first president of a unitary Ugandan state.
Subsequent transfers of power in Uganda were all violent. Bugandan discontent, economic hardship, and corruption allegations culminated in a military coup in 1971 that overthrew Obote’s government. Army commander Idi Amin Dada then seized power. At first, he was welcomed by some Ugandans and by Western countries, largely because Obote’s recent reforms and policy decisions were seen as pro-Soviet. However, Amin’s eight-year rule came to be characterized by terror and mismanagement. The size of the army expanded, political opponents were assassinated, and particular ethnic groups—including the Baganda, Langi, and Acholi—were subjected to persecution. It is estimated that about 300,000 Ugandans lost their lives during his rule.
Seeking domestic support, Amin also expelled about 60,000 Asians, mainly of Indian origin, accusing them of enjoying wealth in Uganda while refusing to take Ugandan citizenship. Although this move was highly popular domestically, it left Uganda isolated internationally. In October 1978, after Amin’s forces attacked Tanzania, the Tanzanian army, supported by armed Ugandan exiles, invaded Uganda. Amin fled and his regime collapsed.
After the fall of Amin’s regime, several short-lived interim governments followed. From 1979, the Uganda National Liberation Front (UNLF)—a coalition government formed by former exiles—came to power under Yusuf Lule. He was later replaced by Godfrey Binaisa, who in turn was overthrown by forces supporting Obote. In 1980, Obote’s Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) won a parliamentary election whose legitimacy was fiercely contested. Opponents who refused to accept the UPC victory formed the National Resistance Movement (NRM).
The NRM’s military wing, the National Resistance Army (NRA), waged an increasingly effective armed struggle against Obote’s government under Yoweri Museveni’s leadership. In 1985, divisions within the army forced Obote into exile, and General Tito Okello of the Uganda National Liberation Army seized power. Ultimately, the NRA captured the capital, Kampala, and on January 29, 1986, Museveni assumed the presidency. The five-year guerrilla war between government forces and the NRA is believed to have claimed around 500,000 lives.
The Parliament of Uganda (Photo: Andrew Regan / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY-SA 3.0])
Military issues under Museveni’s rule
Since 1986, Museveni has gradually restored peace to most of the central, southern, and western regions through negotiations and settlements. However, instability persisted in the north near the border with Sudan (now South Sudan), primarily because weapons from conflict-ridden Sudan flowed to small rebel groups.
The most serious threat to the Museveni government was the rise of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), led by Joseph Kony in northern Uganda. Formed in the late 1980s, the LRA abducted tens of thousands of children for military use and sexual exploitation, terrorizing civilians through killings, rape, and mutilation. As a result, more than a million people were internally displaced, and by the early 2000s the region faced a major humanitarian crisis. Government negotiations with the LRA failed, and the group left Uganda, expanding its violence into neighboring Sudan, the DRC, and the Central African Republic (CAR).
Uganda has also been militarily engaged with another rebel group, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), formed in the 1990s. Driven out of Uganda, the ADF established bases in the DRC from around 2000 and has since carried out attacks on civilians and military targets in both Uganda and the DRC. With the DRC’s consent, Uganda has conducted military operations to root out the ADF, reflecting growing concern over cross-border security threats and humanitarian issues.
This is not the first time the Ugandan army has invaded the DRC. Together with neighboring Rwanda, Uganda invaded the DRC (then Zaire) in 1996 and again in 1998, ostensibly to support local rebel forces. Ugandan troops occupied parts of the DRC until 2003. The conflict escalated into one of the deadliest wars in the contemporary world, so vast in scale and number of participating countries that it has been dubbed the “First African World War.”
Uganda’s economic recovery
When Museveni’s NRM took power in 1986, Uganda had been devastated by 15 years of fragile governance and conflict: its economy was in ruins and state institutions were dysfunctional. The new government set out to rebuild the state and the economy. Backed by substantial foreign aid, the NRM focused on rehabilitating infrastructure and stabilizing public finances. It also encouraged Asian Ugandans, whose assets had previously been confiscated, to return and resume economic activity. Its economic liberalization policies aimed to reduce fiscal deficits, revive agricultural production, and attract foreign investment.
Under Museveni, Uganda’s economy has grown, macroeconomic stability has been achieved, and infrastructure has improved. The government has claimed these outcomes as evidence of effective governance. The discovery of oil in the 2000s further raised expectations for future revenues. Exports of coffee and cotton continue to play a key role in the country’s economy.
Uganda has also strengthened relations with its neighbors. In 2000, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania re-established the East African Community (EAC), and in 2005 the East African Community Customs Union was launched. Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, the DRC, and Somalia later joined the EAC.
Nonetheless, this development has not resolved deep-rooted socioeconomic and generational inequalities. Economic recovery has failed to generate sufficient employment, and despite overall macroeconomic improvements, youth unemployment and underemployment remain high. Uganda’s young people voice frustration that their incomes are insufficient to cover basic necessities. Government officials have also acknowledged that rapid population growth is masking the benefits of economic progress. Thus, while Uganda’s economy may appear to be growing, in reality poverty levels remain stubbornly high.
The advance of authoritarianism
The Museveni government introduced a new constitution in 1995, restoring traditional kingdoms and promising a referendum on multiparty politics. In practice, however, political parties were only nominally recognized and were barred from meaningful political activity. Museveni won the first presidential election under the new constitution in 1996, securing about 72% of the vote. In 2005, a referendum approved a return to multiparty politics, but in the same year parliament removed presidential term limits, enabling Museveni to stand for re‑election. In the 2006 elections, he was elected with about 59% of the vote. However, these elections were marred by serious irregularities, including the pre‑election arrest of opposition leader Kizza Besigye on treason charges, which human rights groups described as an overt act of intimidation by the government against a rival candidate.
In both the 2011 and 2016 elections, Museveni was again declared the winner, with about 68% and 60% of the vote respectively. These elections were likewise questioned for their legitimacy, with reports of vote buying, voter disenfranchisement, extensive deployment of the military, and intimidation of opposition supporters. In 2017, parliament passed a controversial constitutional amendment scrapping the upper presidential age limit of 75. In 2018, the courts upheld this amendment, which meant that Museveni, already in power for over three decades, would be eligible to run in future elections for as long as he lived. The 2021 elections were marked by security forces’ violence against supporters of main opposition candidate Robert Kyagulanyi (popularly known as Bobi Wine), and the detention and house arrest of prominent opposition leaders. There were also internet shutdowns and disruptions to social media. International media and election observers described the polls as “corrupt and marred by human rights abuses.”
The January 15, 2026 elections also followed the established pattern of ruling‑party practices characterized by violence and intimidation, rather than breaking from it. According to preliminary results released by the Electoral Commission, Museveni led with 61.7% of the vote, followed by Bobi Wine of the National Unity Platform (NUP) with 33.6%.
A rally calling on people to vote for the opposition during the 2011 presidential election (Photo: gaborbasch / Shutterstock)
The cycle of repression and co‑optation
To maintain power, Museveni has increasingly relied on intimidation, legally dubious measures, and the co‑optation of opposition forces. Security agencies have consistently dispersed opposition demonstrations, used excessive force against peaceful assemblies, and arbitrarily detained activists. These practices, seen in the 2011 and 2016 election periods, intensified further around the 2020–2021 polls. Human rights organizations have documented torture, enforced disappearances, and arbitrary detention of opposition supporters during this period, indicating a rollback of civil liberties under NRM rule.
The Museveni government has also pursued a strategy of divide and rule toward the opposition in order to maintain its influence. A number of opposition elites have been co‑opted into the NRM, sowing discord within rival parties. For example, when Democratic Party (DP) leader Norbert Mao was appointed minister of justice in 2022 and a cooperation agreement was concluded between the DP and the NRM, it illustrated how a once‑independent party was being absorbed into the regime and effectively ceasing to function as an opposition force.
Kizza Besigye, who for many years was Museveni’s most formidable political rival, left his own party, the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), in 2024, claiming that his close associates had accepted “dirty money” from the presidential office. Besigye was arrested in Kenya and subsequently handed over to Ugandan authorities. He has been held in detention since November 2024 pending trial by a military court. Internal strife within the NUP led by Bobi Wine has likewise fueled suspicions about loyalties and contributed to divisions among opposition forces challenging the regime.
Civil society organizations and the media are also under pressure, facing restrictive laws, threats of deregistration, and harassment by security agencies aimed at deterring investigations into corruption, security‑force abuses, and the question of succession. The government harshly criticized European diplomats for meeting Bobi Wine to discuss human rights, accusing them of interfering in domestic affairs and financing a bid to change the regime.
A slogan calling for unity painted on a wall in Kampala (Photo: Craig Morey / Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0])
Concerns over succession
The rise of Museveni’s son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, in politics has become a source of concern for many. This is not only due to fears of a hereditary transfer of power, but also because of his aggressive statements. In 2022, for example, he posted on social media suggesting that he might invade Kenya. In the same year, he refused to appear before a parliamentary committee set up to investigate issues relating to military involvement in politics. He has also issued threats against politicians opposed to his father. After the 2026 presidential election, Kainerugaba took to social media to call opposition candidate Bobi Wine a “criminal and rebel” and said he would deal with him accordingly.
Since independence, Uganda has never experienced a peaceful presidential transfer of power; every historical change of regime has taken place through a coup, conflict, or some other form of disruption not envisaged by the constitution. In this context, observers have noted that elections have degenerated into ritualized ceremonies with predictable outcomes.
The latest elections are not yet fully concluded, despite preliminary results declaring Museveni the winner. Internet shutdowns during the election period and the detention of opposition leaders and supporters suggest that the ruling party recognizes the possibility that coordinated opposition action could escalate into violence. Bobi Wine has said he will not challenge the results in court, arguing that the judiciary is corrupt, but at the same time he has called on the population to rise up for peaceful change.
Despite the 2026 election results and the harsh measures used to sustain the Museveni regime, economic grievances—especially among the youth—continue to grow. It is difficult to describe the current situation in Uganda as sustainable.
Street view of Kampala, the capital of Uganda (Photo: Lauren Parnell Marino / Flickr [CC BY-NC 2.0])
※1 At GNV, instead of using the World Bank’s extreme poverty line of US$3 per day, we adopt the ethical poverty line of US$7.40 per day. For details, see the GNV article (in Japanese) “How Should We Interpret Global Poverty?”
Writer: Gaius Ilboudo
Graphics: Ayane Ishida
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