Afghanistan in 2026 is facing one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises. Hunger and malnutrition are affecting millions of people. The UN World Food Programme (WFP) reports that by early 2026, 17.4 million people will be facing acute food insecurity. It also projects that 4.9 million women and children will be malnourished amid declining aid inflows, falling purchasing power, and repeated climate disasters. Around 21.9 million people—about 45% of the population—require humanitarian assistance. These figures indicate not just localized shortages, but a nationwide crisis.

At the household level, diet quality has already deteriorated severely. According to a report by the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), sharp shortages and economic stress are forcing many families to skip meals, take on debt to buy food, or sell off assets to survive. Coping strategies driven by desperation are depleting savings, livestock, and other productive resources, leaving people more vulnerable to future economic shocks.

Afghanistan’s current crisis has been developing over many years. It reflects long‑standing weaknesses in the economy and institutions, exacerbated by major political changes, restricted access to international finance, and shifts in governance. To understand how the country reached its present fragile condition, one must consider its geographic constraints, decades of conflict, and problematic governance. This article explores the historical and structural factors contributing to Afghanistan’s current humanitarian crisis.

The capital Kabul (Photo: Qasim Mirzaie / Pexels [Pexels License])

Overview of Afghanistan

Afghanistan’s political and economic development has long been shaped by its geography and ethnic diversity. The country is landlocked and located at the crossroads of Central and South Asia, sharing borders with Pakistan, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and China.

Much of Afghanistan’s terrain is mountainous, with the Hindu Kush range stretching roughly 800 kilometers across the country. Around three‑quarters of Afghan territory consists of mountains or rugged land, connected by narrow valleys and limited transport infrastructure linking many regions.

This terrain has historically complicated efforts by central governments to maintain administrative control across the country. Isolated areas are often difficult to reach, limiting the reach of state institutions and public services. The terrain has also provided a strategic advantage to insurgent groups, who have often used the mountains as bases from which to launch attacks or retreat beyond the effective reach of regular armed forces.

Afghanistan is a multiethnic state with several major ethnic groups. These include the Pashtuns (around 42% of the population, mainly in the south and east), Tajiks (about 27%, mostly in the north and northeast), Hazaras (about 9%, mainly in central areas), and Uzbeks (about 9%, in the north). Smaller groups also exist, such as Aimaqs, Turkmens, Baloch, and Nuristanis. The Taliban movement, the current dominant political force, is primarily associated with the Pashtun ethnic group. The Taliban’s rise in the 1990s and return to power in 2021 are closely tied to Pashtun‑majority areas, where the movement initially gained acceptance by promising order and stability amid the country’s political turmoil.

Within this social diversity, Afghanistan has repeatedly experienced political upheaval in modern history. From 1933 to 1973, it was a constitutional monarchy under Mohammad Zahir Shah, a period marked by relative stability and gradual modernization. In 1973, his cousin Mohammad Daoud Khan overthrew the monarchy in a bloodless coup and declared a republic.

The republic did not last long. A series of armed conflicts between 1979 and 2021—including the Soviet invasion, fighting among armed factions, Taliban rule, and US‑led intervention—repeatedly destroyed infrastructure. These conflicts displaced millions of people, weakened state institutions, and left Afghanistan with fragile governance and recurring humanitarian crises. The following sections set out these political periods chronologically and examine how each phase of conflict affected infrastructure, state institutions, and the country as a whole.

A history of modern conflict in Afghanistan

In April 1978, the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) seized power in the Saur Revolution, killing Daoud Khan and establishing a pro‑Soviet government. In December 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan to support the PDPA. The invasion triggered more than a decade of war between Soviet‑backed forces and the mujahideen, Islamic resistance fighters supported by the United States, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and other allies.

The invasion and war severely disrupted economic activity. For example, around one‑third of all farms were abandoned, and between one‑quarter and one‑third of the country’s irrigation systems were destroyed. Furthermore, between half and two‑thirds of all villages were bombed. The conflict forced about 6.2 million refugees to flee to neighboring countries, especially Pakistan and Iran. An estimated one million civilians were killed during this period.

Soviet troops withdrawing from Afghanistan (Photo: Yuriy Somov / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY-SA 3.0])

After the Soviet withdrawal in February 1989, President Mohammad Najibullah struggled to maintain his position as external aid declined and key political and military allies withdrew their backing. In April 1992 he resigned. Rival mujahideen factions then fought for control of Kabul, inflicting massive damage on the city. The collapse of central government disrupted public services and allowed local militias to exercise authority in place of state institutions.

This period also saw the rise of the Taliban. The movement began in southern Afghanistan in 1994. Its early members were mainly young Pashtuns educated in religious schools (madrasas) in Pakistan. The word “Taliban” means “students” in the local Pashto language. The movement gained popularity and expanded rapidly. After four years of conflict among rival mujahideen factions, the Taliban eventually captured the capital Kabul. Fighting between 1992 and 1996 caused extensive damage to infrastructure: rocket attacks and shelling damaged large parts of Kabul and other cities, and many ministries and institutions ceased to function, leading to the collapse of public services. It is estimated that tens of thousands of people were killed in the bombardment.

Several years later, on September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks took place in the United States. The US government held al‑Qaeda, based in Taliban‑ruled Afghanistan, responsible. In October 2001, US forces, working with various Afghan armed factions opposed to the Taliban, launched military operations in Afghanistan, ultimately toppling the Taliban regime. In December 2001, 25 Afghan political leaders representing factions that had fought against the Taliban met in Bonn, Germany, under UN auspices and signed the Bonn Agreement. The agreement created interim authorities and a transitional political framework. For the next 20 years, the Afghan government operated with extensive military, financial, and technical support from external partners, especially the United States and its allies.

According to a report by the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), the United States alone allocated roughly US$145 billion to Afghanistan during this period for reconstruction of infrastructure. However, this was not sustainable for various reasons. The report notes that widespread corruption within the Afghan government undermined US reconstruction efforts from the outset, with corrupt officials embezzling funds for personal gain and weakening institutions and government legitimacy. It also notes that many projects—such as schools, hospitals, roads, and generators—were built without consultation with Afghan authorities or consideration of local terrain and climate. As a result, many of these assets deteriorated quickly.

A US military base in Afghanistan, 2015 (Photo: ResoluteSupport / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY 2.0])

Ongoing instability—especially attacks by anti‑government forces such as the Taliban—also resulted in some reconstruction projects being directly targeted, damaged, or abandoned. Poor initial planning, a lack of funding for maintenance, and weak capacity within the Afghan government to sustain these assets further reduced their long‑term functionality.

Persistent internal fighting and armed conflict among Afghan forces, foreign troops, and anti‑government groups such as the Taliban continued for two decades. During this time, the Taliban regained control over large parts of the country. According to analysis by Brown University, war and the hunger and disease it caused led to the deaths of 241,000 people.

US forces fully withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021 as part of the 2020 Doha Agreement with the Taliban. The resulting collapse of Afghanistan’s economy is the focus of the next section.

The 2021 political transition and economic rupture

On August 15, 2021, following the withdrawal of US and allied forces, the Taliban took control of Kabul, bringing an end to the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan that had existed since 2001.

Before the Taliban takeover, Afghanistan’s economy depended heavily on foreign aid, with international grants covering around 75% of public expenditure. When the Taliban returned to power, most development aid was frozen and access to international financial institutions was cut off.

The Taliban negotiating with the United States (Photo: US Department of State / Wikimedia Commons [Public domain])

After the Taliban takeover, the United States refused to recognize the Taliban as Afghanistan’s legitimate government and froze about US$7 billion in assets of Afghanistan’s central bank held in US financial institutions. Half of these assets were allocated to a Switzerland‑based trust fund intended to support the Afghan people without giving the Taliban direct control over the assets, but none of this money has yet been disbursed. The remaining half has been seized and retained by the US government.

The sudden loss of external financing and central bank reserves caused a sharp contraction in government spending, liquidity shortages in the banking sector, and a collapse in formal employment opportunities. Businesses struggled to import goods, and unemployment rose significantly, as documented by Human Rights Watch.

Since late 2023, the return of more than 5 million Afghan refugees from neighboring countries has placed additional pressure on already scarce housing, labor markets, and public services, further increasing the economy’s fragility.

Another major factor contributing to Afghanistan’s economic hardship is the decline of the country’s opium economy, centered on poppy cultivation and the production of opium and heroin. Historically, poppy cultivation has provided income for many rural households. However, the Taliban’s ban on poppy cultivation in 2022 caused production to drop dramatically.

Between 2022 and 2023, poppy cultivation declined by more than 90%, leading to a drastic loss of income for farmers and agricultural laborers. Many rural households have lost a vital source of cash income, worsening poverty and food insecurity in affected areas.

Poppy fields being destroyed (Photo: ISAF Headquarters Public Affairs Office / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY 2.0])

This loss of income has created severe economic hardship, especially for small‑scale farmers and day laborers who depended on poppy cultivation for wages and household support. Because poppy‑related agricultural work was one of the few available employment options for women under Taliban restrictions, the impact has been particularly severe on women, as reported by humanitarian organizations. Switching to other crops, such as wheat, yields far lower incomes. The overall economy has also been affected through reduced rural purchasing power.

Natural disasters have further aggravated economic distress. A prolonged drought in 2025 affected rain‑fed crops and groundwater levels in multiple provinces. According to a UN report, it was one of the worst droughts in decades, with persistently below‑average rainfall causing large‑scale crop losses. In some areas, wheat yields fell by as much as 60%. The drought triggered acute food insecurity for millions of people, along with rising malnutrition and displacement. In addition, an earthquake that struck the eastern region in August 2025 killed at least 2,205 people, and destroyed homes, livelihoods, and infrastructure, causing further displacement.

Women and social exclusion

Beyond economic hardship, Afghanistan’s humanitarian situation has been shaped by severe restrictions on women’s rights introduced since the Taliban’s return to power. Shortly after the 2021 takeover, girls were banned from attending secondary school (grades 7–12), and in 2022 women’s access to university education was also banned. As a result, only girls up to about age 12 (grade 6) are allowed to receive formal education, leaving millions of women and girls entirely excluded from the education system. Organizations such as UNICEF are providing community‑based learning programs reaching hundreds of thousands of children (about 64% of them girls). These programs help mitigate learning loss but cannot fully replace nationwide access to secondary and higher education, and millions of adolescent girls remain excluded.

Since 2021, Taliban authorities have gradually restricted women from working in government institutions, most NGOs, and various areas of public life, limiting their participation in formal economic activity and their ability to earn income. The UN Development Programme (UNDP) has warned that these restrictions are not only a human rights issue but also a structural economic risk. Its analysis notes that Afghanistan’s economy has sharply contracted since the 2021 political transition, pushing the country into prolonged economic depression. It stresses that excluding women from economic participation harms productivity and makes recovery far more difficult. In a country where millions already depend on humanitarian aid, limiting women’s ability to work not only narrows individual opportunities but also constrains overall economic output and deepens vulnerability at the national level.

Near Kabul airport (Photo: VOA / Wikimedia Commons [Public domain])

Restrictions on women and other harsh Taliban rules—many of them targeting women—were codified in an order issued in 2026.

The 2026 criminal regulations: codifying hierarchy

In January 2026, the Taliban issued new criminal procedure regulations for the courts. This 119‑article order took effect immediately and was neither publicly announced nor debated before implementation. The existence of the regulations did not come to light until January 21, when Rawadari, an Afghan human rights organization, published them on its website. The provisions have drawn sharp criticism for severely undermining basic human rights and further worsening the already deteriorating situation of women and girls.

According to an analysis by Georgetown University’s Institute for Women, Peace and Security, the regulations “do not merely regulate courts and criminal procedure, but codify an ideological system that makes punishment, surveillance, and coercion central tools of governance.” The analysis reports that the rules create a distinction between “free persons” and “slaves,” using terms such as “master” and “husband” that imply those in such positions have authority to punish the people under their control. The regulations also divide individuals into four social classes, consisting of religious scholars; elites such as tribal elders and merchants; a middle class; and people designated as the “lower class.”

Sentencing for discretionary offenses varies according to social class rather than the nature of the offense. For example, members of the elite may receive only a warning or a summons, whereas those classified as “lower class” may face imprisonment or corporal punishment such as flogging.

Grain in a market (Photo: Institute for Money, Technology and Financial Inclusion / Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0])

According to reporting by The Diplomat, the regulations expand the scope of vaguely defined moral offenses, in effect broadening the state’s authority over private behavior and dissent. The article also notes that the new rules enforce religious discrimination. Followers of the Hanafi school of thought—one of the four major Sunni Islamic schools of jurisprudence—are called “true Muslims,” while people from other sects are labeled “heretics.” The law criminalizes adherence to faiths other than Hanafi Sunni Islam and gives religious authorities (imams) the power to approve the death penalty for those deemed “heretics.”

The 2026 regulations significantly codify many of the restrictions that have been in force since the 2021 takeover, particularly those on women’s rights and freedom of religion.

Ongoing security risks and war with Pakistan

Afghanistan’s internal fragility is further complicated by local security threats and regional conflict. The presence of Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has fueled instability, with hundreds of terrorist attacks recorded in 2021 alone, targeting ethnic minorities, religious gatherings, and Taliban officials. Cross‑border tensions with Pakistan have also periodically escalated, affecting trade flows and communities in border areas.

These tensions reached a critical point in early 2026. On February 21, 2026, Pakistan carried out airstrikes in Afghanistan targeting bases of Tehrik‑i‑Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and ISKP. The TTP, also known as the Pakistani Taliban and distinct from the Afghan Taliban, has historical links with militant networks operating along the Afghanistan–Pakistan border and has used Afghan territory as a base for attacks inside Pakistan. Afghanistan responded on February 26, 2026, with clashes along the border and drone attacks against Pakistan. Pakistan in turn retaliated with airstrikes on major Afghan cities including Kabul and Kandahar.

A parent and child waiting at the border with Pakistan (Photo: UN Women Asia and the Pacific / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0])

Casualty figures are contested, as both governments have issued conflicting data without independent verification. Pakistan claims that more than 580 Afghan Taliban fighters were killed, while the Afghan authorities assert that 327 Pakistani soldiers died. According to a UN statement, about 66,000 Afghans have already been displaced as a result of the ongoing war.

The conflict has disrupted trade and the flow of humanitarian supplies through border closures. If it continues, it is likely to further worsen Afghanistan’s existing economic and humanitarian challenges. At the time of writing, several countries, including China and Turkey, have expressed interest in mediating a ceasefire between the two sides, but no concrete progress has yet been made.

Conclusion: a protracted, multilayered crisis

Afghanistan’s crisis is not a sudden emergency but the culmination of structural weaknesses built up over decades. Geography, prolonged conflict, dependence on external financing, weak governance, the sharp financial isolation since 2021, and climate shocks all overlap to produce a protracted humanitarian emergency.

Afghanistan remains caught in internal and external conflicts amid structural instability. Sustainable recovery will require normalization of public finances, rebuilding institutions, inclusive governance, improved relations with neighboring countries, and prioritization of citizens’ welfare. Without structural stability, humanitarian needs are likely not to diminish but to persist.

Writer: Pavel Das

Graphic: Mayu Nakata

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