GNV News, 11 November 2026

On 5 November 2026, the Supreme Court in Somalia ruled that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term had expired and ordered that elections be held within 90 days. The decision came a day after President Hassan dismissed the country’s chief justice. This has served to further intensify Somalia’s power struggle.

Somalia has been in a political crisis since May 2026, when President Hassan’s term was initially scheduled to end. In March, parliament passed a constitutional amendment extending the presidential term to five years, thereby prolonging President Hassan’s tenure until May 2027. In response, Somalia’s opposition coalition objected and also rejected the unilateral announcement by the electoral commission that parliamentary and presidential elections would be held in April and May 2027 respectively.

This political crisis has led to intense clashes within the country. It has been reported that thousands of fighters were involved in battles between government forces and opposition coalition fighters around Baidoa in the South West State, and that drones and fighter jets were also used.

Regarding developments involving other countries, on 8 August 2026, Ethiopian troops belonging to the African Union Somalia Support and Stabilisation Mission (AUSSOM) handed over a military base in Burhakaba in the south to the Somali National Army. Ethiopian troops had been stationed at the base since 2014. From now on, Somali forces will have to independently deal with security threats posed by the al-Qaeda-linked armed group al-Shabaab and other armed factions.

The handover in Burhakaba took place amid ongoing political friction between Ethiopia and Somalia over sovereignty issues concerning the breakaway region of Somaliland. There are also concerns that, because Somali forces are overstretched and lack the systems and equipment needed to manage logistical support functions, a security vacuum will immediately emerge across central and southern Somalia, leading to greater instability.

In addition, the Ugandan military has been deployed under a bilateral agreement with Somalia and has helped the government in recapturing territory from al-Shabaab and maintaining control. However, Uganda has stated that it will withdraw its remaining troops, including those in the African Union (AU) peacekeeping force, by the end of 2027.

There is also a risk that extremist organisations operating in Somalia, such as al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia, will take advantage of this security turmoil in the country to regroup, leading to an escalation of the conflict.

As described above, Somalia now stands on the brink of increased instability, with multiple overlapping crises: the withdrawal of international forces, the persistent threat posed by al-Shabaab, political confrontation, and tensions between regions. Under these circumstances, there is a recognized need to promote dialogue that can pave the way toward a comprehensive political agreement on constitutional reform, electoral issues, and interim governance arrangements, and to draw up a realistic timeline until elections are held. It is believed that unless such an agreement is reached to strengthen cohesion around the political order, the risk of the conflict expanding and becoming prolonged will continue to grow.

Learn more about Somalia → “Is Somalia moving toward stability?” “Somalia: In search of stability”

Learn more about Somaliland → “What is the future of Somaliland?”

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (Photo: Nicolas Landemard / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY 4.0])