GNV News, 7 October 2026

In Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, the armed conflict that ended in 2022 has once again intensified. On 23 September, fighting between the Ethiopian federal government and armed groups centered on the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which is based in the region, escalated seriously. On 3 October, government forces took control of the regional capital Mekelle, and the TPLF withdrew from the city. However, airstrikes and shelling have continued in the north, and it cannot be said that the fighting has come to an end, according to reports on the situation.

What deserves attention here is that the TPLF is fighting as a member of the seven-group coalition “Ethiopian People’s Survival Front,” which calls for the resignation of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the establishment of interim governance. Other members include the Amhara region’s Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army, and forces that were hostile to each other during the 2020–2022 conflict have now joined the same coalition. The geopolitical analysis organization IAG points out that, while the recapture of Mekelle gives the federal government a temporary advantage, the TPLF has previously shifted to guerrilla warfare, and the conflict remains far from a military resolution in its assessment.

This conflict is also generating tensions beyond Ethiopia’s borders. As Prime Minister Abiy repeatedly asserts Ethiopia’s sovereign access to the Red Sea, diplomatic relations with Eritrea have been severed. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea, Egypt, and Sudan of supporting anti-government forces, but the three countries all deny this. On 4 October, the leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan met in Egypt and issued a joint declaration calling for respect for sovereignty, a solution through dialogue, and that management of the Red Sea should be entrusted to coastal states. The declaration highlighted the diplomatic isolation of the Abiy administration.

Humanitarian concerns are also mounting. In northern Tigray, there have been reports that trucks carrying humanitarian aid supplies were hit by drone attacks, and the United Nations has expressed deep concern over forced conscription, including of children, in its statement.

During the previous conflict from 2020–2022, it is believed that hundreds of thousands of people were killed. Although the government, having retaken Mekelle, currently holds the upper hand, fears are rapidly growing that the conflict could expand into a regional war involving Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia.

Learn more about the situation in Ethiopia → “Concerns over renewed conflict in northern Ethiopia”

Learn more about relations with Eritrea → “Rising tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia”