GNV News, 4 October 2026

Global food prices are rising again. According to the “FAO Food Price Index” released by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the index for September 2026 reached its highest level in almost four years, since November 2022. The FAO Food Price Index is an indicator showing changes in international prices of major food commodities traded around the world, and is composed of five commodity groups: cereals, vegetable oils, dairy products, meat, and sugar.

It is difficult to explain the current rise in food prices by a single factor. Disruptions to transport routes caused by conflicts, rising prices of inputs necessary for agriculture such as fertilizers and fuel, and extreme weather events are overlapping and believed to be affecting food supplies.

In particular, in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea, disruptions to transport and trade routes continue due to conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine, affecting food markets as well. In the Black Sea region, export of wheat and other products has stagnated due to logistical constraints, and as importing countries have stepped up efforts to look for alternative suppliers, international wheat prices in September rose compared to the previous month. In addition, uncertainty surrounding transportation through the Strait of Hormuz has heightened concerns over costs such as those for fertilizers and transport, which are necessary for food production, and has become a factor pushing food prices up.

On the climate front, extreme weather associated with the El Niño phenomenon has also affected the rise in sugar prices in September. According to the FAO, in India, rainfall below the long-term average and a strengthening El Niño have squeezed the sugar production outlook. In Brazil, heavy rains in the central-southern region have delayed harvesting, intensifying concerns over global sugar supplies. The deterioration in supply prospects in these major producing countries became a factor driving up sugar prices in September.

The magnitude of the impact of higher prices also differs from country to country. It has been pointed out that the burden of rising prices could become greater in some countries in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia that are highly dependent on imported grains and edible oils.

Even if crops are produced, if ports and transport routes are cut off by conflicts and other factors, the costs of securing alternative routes increase. If fertilizer supplies are disrupted, it affects the next planting season and may reduce future production. These regions are also highly vulnerable to climate change and related impacts. In today’s world, stabilizing food markets requires understanding how these complex factors are interconnected and determining what measures can be taken to address them.

Learn more about the food crisis → “Food Systems and World Hunger”

Learn more about agriculture and natural resources → “Are Mangrove Forests Recovering?”

Grains and spices sold at a market in the old town of Zanzibar, Tanzania (Photo: Kennedy Bundi / Wikimedia Commons [CC BY-SA 4.0])